According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3716 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% in price.

The SDIC Luoke Factory mainly delivers orders in the early stage, and the market traders have different sales prices, and the transaction is relatively slow. At present, the market price of 52% of Luoke powder is mostly 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and the transaction is negotiable. The factory will carry out summer maintenance in late May. From the perspective of supply of goods, the supply of goods is large, but the demand follow-up is insufficient.

The supply of goods in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is still increasing, and there are still about 500000 tons of imported potassium from ports in the bonded zone. The available supply of goods at ports is relatively concentrated, mostly in the hands of large traders. The production of domestic potassium manufacturers’ devices is normal, and there are new sources of goods arriving in various regions.

Forecast: At present, the market is mostly wait-and-see, and the market price is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic neopentyl glycol market fell slightly in April, and the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol mainstream market fell from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.75%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 39.85% year-on-year. On April 27th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.68% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol have slightly decreased this month.

From the cost side, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell in April. The price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 7633.33 yuan/ton on April 1st to 7866.67 yuan/ton on April 13th, an increase of 3.06%; Later, it fell to 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 28th, a decrease of 5.51%. Overall, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell 2.62% in April. The factory price of formaldehyde in China slightly decreased in April. The price of formaldehyde decreased by 3.00% from 1223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1186.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the price support for neopentyl glycol was weak due to the influence of supply and demand.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol in mid to early May may be mainly characterized by a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde markets have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

The market for trichloromethane significantly declined in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2362 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 11.68% from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates weakly, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak; The price of downstream refrigerant R22 slightly decreased at the end of the month, and there is a strong demand for support for trichloromethane but no new support; Methane chloride production fluctuates slightly, while the supply of trichloromethane is generally loose; At the beginning of the month, the market for trichloromethane declined due to the decrease in methanol prices and the restart of the Meilan plant; Afterwards, the supply and demand of trichloromethane remained stagnant until the end of the month, and the factory prices of enterprises were significantly reduced. The market situation for ammonium chloride decreased significantly at the end of the month.

In April, there was a slight fluctuation in the start of trichloromethane production, and overall supply pressure was high.

In April, the price of raw material methanol narrowed and stabilized, while the cost support for trichloromethane was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the spot price of methanol was 2488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from 2561 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 2571 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2401 yuan/ton.

In April, the price of R22 remained strong in the early stage and slightly declined in the later stage. At the beginning of the month, support for chloroform was strong and weak in the later stage. However, as the peak season passes, support for chloroform may weaken again in the later stage. Overall, the total production quota for R22 in 2023 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that although there is currently support in the demand side for trichloromethane, with the end of the later peak season, support may weaken, coupled with pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 25th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 257500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.93% compared to April 1st.

The industrial grade lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend in April. In the early days, the upstream lithium carbonate market fell, with poor support for the lithium hydroxide market. Supply side enterprises mainly focus on normal production, while domestic market demand is weak. The spot market transactions are limited, and the mentality of the operators is poor. The lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly. In the middle of the year, the sluggish market for upstream lithium carbonate continued, coupled with weaker downstream demand and lower purchasing intentions, putting pressure on high market prices for transactions and weakening the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations. In the second half of the year, the cost support is still weak, with abundant market supply and poor demand. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the lithium hydroxide market continues to decline.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate decreased in April 2023. As of April 25, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 167000.00, a decrease of 25.65% compared to April 1 (224600.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that current cost and demand support is still insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may operate weakly and steadily, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has experienced significant stability and slight fluctuations, with various spot prices fluctuating and fluctuating. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 21, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 14075 yuan/ton, a decrease of+1.81% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the price of caprolactam market rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded in the early stage, and cost support strengthened. In addition, the maintenance plan of caprolactam industry has increased, the load is expected to decline, and the supply side supports the market. Downstream procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the main focus. Caprolactam is expected to rise in the short term, and the support for PA6 is acceptable.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was around 73%, showing a sideways trend. The market supply is stable, the inventory position has slightly increased, the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, and the factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a decent load. As May Day approaches, pre holiday stocking operations are gradually increasing, and actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The atmosphere of stocking on site is cautious, and buyers are resistant to high priced sources. Overall, the demand for PA6 chips is moderate.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market saw a narrow decline. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is acceptable, but the stock is biased towards low-priced sources. Caprolactam operates at a high price, and PA6 cost end support is acceptable. The market is generally balanced, and it is expected that the PA6 market may rise in the short term due to cost support.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature coal tar market fell sharply this week. From April 14 to 21, the domestic coal tar price fell from 4620 yuan/ton to 3667.5 yuan/ton, and the price fell 20.62% in the cycle.

Recently, the price of raw material coking coal has decreased, and the cost of coke enterprises entering the furnace has decreased. The overall operating cost of enterprises is relatively high, and the supply of tar is relatively loose. The prices in the downstream deep processing industry have mostly declined, with an average decline of about 4% in recent years due to the impact of profits. This has led to a strong mentality of downstream enterprises to hold down prices, and coking enterprises have offered to sell out, resulting in a sharp drop in bidding prices this week, marking the highest weekly decline in history.

On April 21, the auction of coal tar in the main domestic production areas basically ended in the week of April 21. The price of tar in the main production areas decreased by nearly 1000 yuan, and the mainstream decreased by about 800-1000 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in Shanxi region is 3510-3700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of around 950-1000 yuan/ton. In the Shandong region, it is at 3800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of around 800 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, it is 3650 to 3700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 900 to 950 yuan/ton. In the Jiangsu region, the price is 3800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 800 yuan/ton.

The domestic high temperature coal tar market will perform well in 2022. The highest price in 22 years will be 6712.5 yuan/ton on November 3. With the final landing of the price in this week’s auction, the domestic average price will be 3667.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 45.36% according to the highest price in 22 years.

Supply: The operating rate of coking enterprises has steadily increased, and the supply of tar is relatively loose

From the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China from 2022 to present, we can see that after entering 2023, the operating rate of coking enterprises has continued to steadily increase, and significantly increased in mid February. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 21, the operating rate of coking enterprises has been close to 80%, which is basically close to the peak season operating rate. Currently, the overall operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively high, and the supply of tar is relatively sufficient.

Demand: Although deep processed products have significantly declined, they still exist in immediate demand

Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. Since 23 years ago, the price of deep processing commodities has basically kept pace with the trend of tar. This week, the price of some commodities in the deep processing industry dropped significantly, especially the price of anthracene oil and coal tar pitch dropped to 1000 yuan/ton, which affected the mentality of deep processing enterprises. The profit of the deep processing industry has shrunk, and the start of the deep processing industry has declined slightly this week, Downstream industries have a strong mentality of suppressing tar prices, while coking enterprises have recently started operating well and can only sell at a lower price to digest inventory. Therefore, tar prices have plummeted this week, with a single week drop feared to hit a new historical high.

Forecast: Generally speaking, as the weather turns warmer, the coking enterprises should gradually increase to more than 80% according to previous years, and the overall supply of coal tar will be in a normal and loose state. In terms of demand, as the downstream deep processing industry experiences a sharp drop in raw material prices and profits improve, the operating rate should rise to the normal range, and there is still a demand for tar. As the 51 hour holiday approaches, most manufacturers still have stocking demand. With the support of downstream demand, the decline in tar prices is limited again, and it is expected that the future market will remain stable, with weak operation as the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 21, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the price of 20666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 16.04% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 21, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25333.33 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.65% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25500.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 2.70% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the middle of April, the domestic trichloromethane price recovered slightly after stabilizing, falling by 3.74% overall in the month, and the hydrofluoric acid price rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom, rising by 5.69% at the low level in the month. In general, the domestic R22 upstream raw material price is still at a low level at present, and the continuous low cost shock has suppressed the domestic R22 price to a certain extent. The domestic R22 market price is stable, weak and running on the whole this week.

Entering mid April, the overall domestic price of trichloroethylene remained stable and advanced this week, while the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable after a slight rebound within the month. The raw material cost remained relatively low and advanced steadily, while the raw material cost continued to fluctuate at a low level. The overall upward momentum of domestic R134a prices was insufficient, and the overall domestic R134a price remained stable and advanced this week.

Overall, although the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has rebounded to some extent, it is still at a relatively low level compared to previous years. The sustained low volatility of raw material costs will form a certain pressure on the domestic price of R134a.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs continue to fluctuate and decrease, and under cost suppression, it is expected that the overall domestic R22/R134a prices will continue to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operating trend in the short term. Supported by the increasing demand for hot refrigerants due to the gradually changing weather, the overall downward space in the future is limited.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3083.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 25.40% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 80.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 45.59% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market maintained stable operation, and the downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250-1400 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5994.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.20%. Compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 33.18% year-on-year. The PVC market price fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late April, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal remains stable and the cost support is average. The downstream PVC market has been weak and there is insufficient downstream demand. In late April, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

From April 7, 2023 to April 14, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi Province fell again. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price was 4750 yuan/ton last weekend, and 4620 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 2.74%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly coal tar K column chart above, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months, and the price has risen since February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market fell for six consecutive weeks, the price gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and began to decline continuously at the end of February.

On April 13, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 162.67, down 1.12 points from yesterday, down 29.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 245.01% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

In this cycle, the deep-processing industry saw both gains and losses, most of which fell. The purchase of tar remained just in demand. This week, the auction price of coal tar in the mainstream market fell, of which the price in Shanxi was 4550-4600 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than the auction price last week.

Supply: The operating rate of coking enterprises is steadily increasing, and the supply of tar is stable

Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the process of coke production. Monitoring the operation of coking enterprises can intuitively understand the supply of coal tar. From the figure above, we can see that since February 2023, the operation rate of coking enterprises has continued to rise steadily. At present, the operation rate is close to 80% of the peak season. At present, the supply of coal tar is relatively adequate. Due to the recent decline in coking coal prices, coking enterprises have experienced a decrease in furnace entry costs and a recovery in profits. The operating rate has continued to slightly increase this week.

Demand: Prices of deeply processed products mostly decrease

Demand: Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. In this cycle, only industrial naphthalene is higher for deep processing commodities, while the prices of other commodities are mainly lower. The overall atmosphere of the industrial chain is relatively weak, and the operating rate remains at a relatively normal level. There is still a strong demand for the tar market. Tar auction prices have mostly declined this week due to the drag of downstream products.

On April 14th, the Japanese weekly auction basically ended, and the prices of tar in the main domestic production areas were mixed. The mainstream prices in Shanxi were between 4500-4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. In the Shandong region, it is at 4650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, there is a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from 4550 to 4600 yuan/ton. The price in Henan region is 4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, the price of tar has declined for 6 weeks and reached a new low for the year. Last week, the slight rebound in prices in Shanxi did not drive the market trend this week. Due to the trend of downstream commodities and future expectations, tar prices are difficult to be optimistic. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a small amount of pre holiday stocking demand in the downstream according to plan. In the future, the business community believes that with the support of stocking in the short term, tar prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, and the long-term trend will depend on the actual downstream demand.

In March 2023, demand fell short of expectations, downstream procurement was cautious, and the market performance of viscose staple fibers was calm. Prices were basically stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The factory remained firm and stable in price, and negotiations were held for slight discounts. A new round of quotes for imported broadleaf dissolved pulp from upstream raw materials has been introduced, at $920 per ton, which is unchanged from last month. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, with sufficient supply. The downstream market for human cotton yarn remains stable, and the downstream demand for human cotton yarn is still mainly for procurement. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, and the start of construction is basically maintained, but the recovery is not as expected. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the end market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive staple fiber in China was 13320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the price was basically stable.

In March 2023, the downstream market for human cotton yarn continued to operate steadily, and the downstream demand for human cotton yarn was still the main demand for procurement. The transaction atmosphere was relatively average, and the start of construction was basically maintained, but the recovery was not as expected. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the end market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17666 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Future Market Forecast

The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall purchasing and sales atmosphere in the short-term market is limited. Large viscose staple fiber factories still focus on executing preliminary orders. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, analysts from Business Society predict that the prices of viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn may continue to remain stable in the short term, and the market is waiting for or will introduce a new round of pricing policies.