According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in May. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3150.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.59%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 28.86% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region increased slightly in May. Overall, the price of calcium carbide slightly increased in May. Some calcium carbide manufacturers are parking for maintenance, and the market supply and circulation of goods are relatively tight.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In May, the upstream price of calcium carbide remained stable, and there are still expectations of a downward trend in the short term. The cost support for calcium carbide is average.

Demand side: PVC market price continues to decline

In May, the PVC market price at the downstream of calcium carbide continued to fall in shock. The PVC market price fell from 5925.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5544.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 34.51% year-on-year. The PVC spot market continued to be weak, and the futures market performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market. But there is an upward trend at the end of the month.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early June, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. Some calcium carbide enterprises are in a tight supply of goods due to parking and maintenance. The downstream PVC market has an upward trend at the end of the month, and downstream demand has increased. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early June, with consolidation being the main focus.

This week (5.22-5.29), the market for butadiene rubber continued to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 10450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from last Monday’s 10700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has significantly decreased; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, resulting in a decrease in merchant offers. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of May 29th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 10200 yuan/ton. As of May 29th, the mainstream prices of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the East China market of Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan, Qixiang, Zhenhua, etc. were between 10100 and 10600 yuan/ton.

The early shutdown device was restarted, and the pressure on the butadiene rubber supply surface continued to increase this week (5.22-5.29).

This week (5.22-5.29), the price of raw material butadiene continued to decline significantly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of butadiene was 7140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12% from last Monday’s 7605 yuan/ton.

Weak demand This week (5.22-5.29), the natural rubber market is operating weakly, providing slight support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of natural rubber was 11640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19% from last Monday’s 11780 yuan/ton.

This week (5.22-5.29), the tire operating rate fluctuated slightly, which has a strong demand for rubber support but limited new space. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.1%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, some butadiene rubber plants will restart, increasing pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; Downstream construction fluctuates slightly, with limited support for butadiene rubber. Although natural rubber prices are slightly supported, natural rubber inventory is still accumulating, and short-term support for butadiene rubber is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak consolidation in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on May 1st, which was 9525 yuan/ton. The industrial chain market has risen, and aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level. The supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and increased in May.

Raw material fluorite prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since mid March, the price of raw material fluorite has fluctuated and increased. As of May 26th, the price of fluorite was 3143.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared to May 1st at 3075 yuan/ton, and a continuous increase of 6.57% compared to March 10th at 2950 yuan/ton. The price of raw material fluorite continues to rise, while the cost of aluminum fluoride has increased. In May, the price increase of fluorite slowed down, and there is still support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose first and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since mid March, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has increased first and then decreased. As of May 26th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10014.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50% compared to the price of 10271.43 yuan/ton on May 1st. Compared to the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 10th, the price increased first and then decreased, with an increase of 3.09%. Compared to the price of 10357.14 yuan/ton on April 20th, the price decreased by 3.31%. Since mid March, the price of hydrofluoric acid has increased first and then decreased. In May, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, weakening the cost support for aluminum fluoride, and weakening the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

Downstream cryolite prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the price of cryolite was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the price of cryolite on May 1st, which was 7825 yuan/ton. The price of cryolite has slightly increased, and the recovery of downstream demand is limited. The demand for aluminum fluoride is stable, but there is insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

Electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18120 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 2.00% compared to the price of 18490 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated and fallen, and Yunnan’s power restrictions have basically ended. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises have started operations steadily, downstream demand is stable, and demand for aluminum fluoride is stable. The support for the rise of aluminum fluoride still exists.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that in May, the price of raw material fluorite fluctuated and rose, while the price of hydrofluoric acid first rose and then fell. The support for the rising cost of fluoride aluminum raw materials still exists; Downstream cryolite prices fluctuate and rise, electrolytic aluminum enterprises are stabilizing their operations, electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuate and fall, and demand for fluoride aluminum is stable. Aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient. The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and increased in May. In the future, the support for rising costs is weakened, the support for rising demand is insufficient, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

This week (5.12-5.19), the market for butadiene rubber saw a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 10720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20% from last Monday’s 11190 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has significantly decreased; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber was reduced by a total of 500 yuan/ton twice, resulting in a decrease in merchant offers.

This week (5.12-5.19), the supply of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, but there are plans to restart devices in the later stage, and the pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to be difficult to reduce.

This week (5.12-5.19), the price of raw material butadiene fell weakly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the price of butadiene was 7838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34% from last Monday’s 8281 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market continued to rise slightly this week (5.12-5.19) due to storage rumors, but it is still at a stage low, with little support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the price of natural rubber was 11820 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from last Monday’s 11656 yuan/ton.

This week (5.12-5.19), the tire production rate is temporarily stable, and there is a strong need for support for rubber, but it is weaker than in April. It is understood that as of mid May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.3%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.00%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that some butadiene rubber plants will restart in the near future and there are also expectations of restarting some plants in the future, resulting in a pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak, with a significant decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.73% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued, with enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the overall load has fluctuated at a high level. The operating rate of domestic ABS is close to 90%, and the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88% recently. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. Domestic enterprise inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on manufacturers and merchants, and both prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been negative recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has turned downward. At present, the price of acrylonitrile raw materials has slightly increased but is still at a low level, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side has slightly improved, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market price continues to fall. The external market has a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price is constantly decreasing, which has a significant drag on the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation within the week, and some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China have resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline.

It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market has continued to decline recently. The international crude oil price has dragged down the weakness of the pure benzene market, resulting in poor cost support. Downstream markets are mostly in the off-season, mainly in demand. Domestic styrene supply is relatively abundant, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has fluctuated and declined.

In terms of demand: Last week, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, showed average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have all declined, which has not provided sufficient support for the cost side of ABS. Nearly 90% of petrochemical plants have started construction, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position continues to rise, and the mentality of merchants has softened, with operations leaning towards giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is organized and operated. From May 15 to 19, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15160 yuan/ton to 15060 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 0.66%, 1.44% month on month and 15.68% year-on-year. The overall atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively bearish, with little fluctuation in traders’ quotations and an increase in market supply. At the same time, the bearish factors on the cost side have intensified, resulting in a weak and volatile aggregated MDI market.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the device are not significant. The Shanghai Lianheng 590000 ton/year MDI mother liquor device is expected to start shutdown and maintenance around June, lasting for about a month. In addition, the initial maintenance plan for the 130000+70000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao, Japan, is expected to be around January, which will affect the 80000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao Ruian, China. It is expected that the supply and inventory of goods will decrease slightly.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. Downstream consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. On May 19th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6843.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7433.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline is in weak operation. On May 19th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -13.38% compared to the beginning of this month (11775.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively weak.

On the demand side, the overall downstream follow-up is relatively slow, and the transaction atmosphere has significantly weakened compared to the previous period. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, both cost and demand are bearish, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is operating in a weak trend.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 64638.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% from the 67220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 7% and increased by 5%. Recently, copper prices have fallen weakly.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The recent release of China’s economic data is generally poor. Yesterday’s inflation and social finance data fell short of market expectations, sparking concerns about domestic demand in the market.

On the supply side: The production and port transportation issues of overseas mines have been gradually resolved, and processing costs have stabilized without changing the loose situation. With the arrival of the intensive maintenance period for smelting enterprises, the supply of crude copper may be tightened again, and the production of electrolytic copper will be suppressed, and the import volume of electrolytic copper is also limited.

On the demand side: The demand for terminal copper has not increased during the peak season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Overseas inventory continues to rise.

In summary, with the end of the traditional consumption peak season of “Gold, Silver, and Four”, there are obvious signs of weakness in the consumer end. And under the influence of continuous interest rate hikes overseas, hidden inventory has become increasingly apparent, making copper fundamentals even more vulnerable. The maintenance of smelting enterprises may have some support. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine is weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 25200 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 25100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.18%. On May 14th, the bromine commodity index was 88.07, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.08% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 49.47% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have been weak this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong is around 24500-25500 yuan/ton. Bromine supply exceeds demand, and seawater bromine production still shows an increasing trend. Downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future, and there is a phenomenon of price pressure. Bromine enterprises have stable production, average shipments, and relatively average mentality among operators.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price has increased this week, with an average market price of 750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 763.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 1.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 80.19%. The manufacturer has no inventory pressure, mainly focuses on shipping, and downstream follows up on demand. The enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is average, and the short-term sulfur market is on the sidelines for consolidation.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry is generally following up. The supply of bromine is sufficient in the near future, and the overall wait-and-see mentality is mainly focused. It is expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak and the consolidation operation situation will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 16950 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week. Overall, the performance of the international market is decent, while the trading situation in the domestic market is relatively light. At present, the demand in the domestic market is not good, and actual transactions are cautious. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see and purchase according to demand. At present, there is significant cost pressure on enterprises, with price stability being the main focus. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has been lowered this week. At present, the transaction situation in the titanium concentrate market is average, and there is significant pressure to sell goods. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are under cost pressure, and their procurement inquiries are increasing. They are mainly wait-and-see, but actual transactions are relatively cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium concentrate is around 1520-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2230-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is weak and stable, and the actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market dropped sharply this week. The price of sulfuric acid has decreased from 215 yuan/ton last Friday to 196 yuan/ton this Friday, with a decrease of 8.84%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a slight decline, with average cost support. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide declined slightly, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from titanium dioxide business agency believe that: the price of sulfuric acid market is down, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area is down, and the cost support of titanium dioxide is weak. In addition, the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is light at present, and the domestic titanium dioxide market is in poor trading and investment, with weak supply and demand. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of May 10, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with May 7 (reference price of n-butanol was 8333 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.7 to 5.10), the domestic butanol market in Shandong Province started a high decline trend, and the overall focus of the butanol market continued to decline. The n-butanol equipment that was partially shut down for maintenance in the early stage resumed operation this week, and Shandong large factories resumed pricing. The tight supply of n-butanol in the field was alleviated, and the support provided by the supply side to the market was relatively weak. Some n-butanol factories and suppliers, in order to actively ship, have successively lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction range of around 200 to 400 yuan/ton. As of May 10, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.