According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week (7.31-8.7). On July 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8140 yuan/ton, while on August 7th, the benchmark price was 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.44%.

The supply of mixed xylene is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of early August, the inventory of xylene in East China decreased by 6000 tons to around 18000 tons; The inventory of mixed xylene in South China decreased by around 50000 tons to around 2000 tons.

International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday, providing strong support for the xylene market. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external market prices remain high due to the rise of crude oil. As of the 3rd, the closing prices in Asia are 1021-1023 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1046-1048 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to last Monday’s 8600 yuan/ton. Although the price of ortho benzene has increased, due to the shrinking demand for downstream phthalic anhydride, the expected upward momentum for ortho phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the support for ortho benzene is limited.

Gasoline prices continue to rise, and on the one hand, demand is improving to support the oil market. The peak summer driving season in the United States is still playing a role, with peak travel leading to positive fuel consumption. In addition, there is hope for the future of Chinese demand, and China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. On the other hand, international crude oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of finished oil forms strong support. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%.

Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, coupled with a tight domestic supply situation, the mixed xylene market will still be in a high exploratory upward trend; In the medium to long term, after a significant increase in prices, downstream demand follows suit and weakens. In addition, some devices are restarted, and the rise in mixed xylene in the later stage may weaken.

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose slightly this week (7.31-7.4). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3935 yuan/ton on July 31, and 4050 yuan/ton on August 4. The average price was 2.92% higher in the cycle, 6.3% higher than the same period last year.

As of August 4th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3450 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3400 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3300 yuan/ton

This week, there was a significant increase in the domestic dimethyl ether market. The supply in Henan region has decreased due to the reduction of mainstream factories, boosted by the rise in raw material prices, and the broad upward trend of related products, with upstream actively pushing up. Downstream performance is average, with a focus on demand and a resistance towards high priced sources.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, with the price rising from 2280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2355 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.4%. The rise in methanol prices is the main reason driving the increase in dimethyl ether in this round.

Overall, if there is a weakening of cost support in the later stage, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is not high, the space for dimethyl ether to continue to rise is limited, and consolidation operation is the main focus.

The phenol market in July was affected by the tight supply of its own, leading to a rise during the month. According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the average price in the national market increased from 6595 yuan/ton on July 1 to 8337.5 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 26.4%.

Average Price Trend of Phenol Market in Major Regions of China

The quotation situation of phenol in various markets nationwide on July 31st is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ 7.1-31 Rise and Fall

East China/ 8200./1700

Shandong region/ 8150/1600

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 8150/1600

South China/ 8250/1450

Device maintenance, domestic resource supply is tight. In July, 6 sets of equipment were repaired, involving 1.3 million tons of products, resulting in a reduction in domestic resource supply.

The supply of imported goods is limited. The inventory of the port in the second half of the year is 20000 tons.

The factory continues to suffer losses and hopes to raise the listing price. From the perspective of the profits of the phenolic ketone factory, it can be seen that the phenolic ketone enterprise has sustained losses in the early stage. The factory urgently needs to adjust the listing price, and the factory has adjusted the price multiple times due to market fluctuations.

The business community believes that, in terms of current devices, there is no plan to restart the phenol ketone device of CNOOC and Shell. In addition, Wanhua Chemical Group and Jiangsuri Heng may pay attention to the situation of devices in a timely manner. At present, the circulation is limited, but facing the demand of downstream procurement of high priced raw materials, the short-term fluctuation is expected to be 8000-8500 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol increased in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6440 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 74600 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 15.84%.

The market price of isopropanol continued to rise in July. At present, the market situation for isopropanol is good. Upstream acetone market prices have risen, with strong cost support. Market confidence is good, downstream inquiries are relatively positive, overall market trading is relatively active, and the focus is gradually shifting upwards. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7200-7700 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market has been continuously rising since July. At the beginning of July, the average price of acetone was 5432.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of July, the average price was 6987.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 28.62%. The enthusiasm of intermediate traders to enter the market has increased, and their inventory willingness has increased. The inquiry atmosphere for major downstream factories entering the market has significantly improved, and the market focus continues to rise. It is expected that acetone will maintain a strong operation in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated in July, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of July, the market average was 6518 yuan/ton, and on July 28th, the average price was 6675 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2.42%, a decrease of 7.72% compared to the same period last year. In July, the upstream of propylene showed varying degrees of increase, effectively boosting the propylene market with increased cost support. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene, except for epoxy propane, have shown varying degrees of increase, with some products experiencing an increase of over 10%. Downstream products are supported by raw material costs, and the market is showing a trend of improvement.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has risen, while propylene has slightly increased. The overall cost support has driven up the price of isopropanol in the market. In addition, the export sector has performed well, and the domestic market has also performed well. Overall, the market trading is relatively active. It is expected that in the short term, the high level consolidation and operation of the isopropanol market will be the main focus.

This week (7.24-28), domestic Adipic acid continued to rise moderately. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 28, the weekly increase of Adipic acid was 0.22%. The market trading center has risen by around 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the market quotation range of Adipic acid is 9100-9300 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the cost side is favorable and the supply pressure is not significant.

Industrial chain

The figure above shows that this week, the upstream products of the Adipic acid industry chain turned red, the upstream raw material end improved significantly, and pure benzene maintained a strong trend with a significant increase. The downstream main product PA66 continues to be weak, but under the effect of price transmission, there may be rebound demand in the later stage.

Cost side: Good raw materials and prominent cost effects

This week, crude oil maintained an upward trend, bringing a boost effect to the domestic petrochemical market. The price of pure benzene in China continues to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, pure benzene rose 2.79% on the week. Compared to the previous week, the increase has increased. The main refinery’s quotation continues to increase, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. This week, the supply of the northern market was tight, and the supply of pure benzene flowing into East China was limited. The downstream procurement was active, and the market rose. Overlapping ports to continue the destocking mode, resulting in a market shortage of supply and demand; By the end of the week, the spot trading range in East China was 6600-7200 yuan/ton. The price of Cyclohexanone, another upstream product of Adipic acid, also showed an upward trend this week, but the increase slowed down. According to monitoring, the weekly increase was 0.33%, mainly due to the rapid price increase in the early stage (5.27% increase last week). In terms of cost, the recovery of upstream raw material market has boosted Adipic acid.

Supply side: The parking supply for enterprise equipment has been tightened

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the operating rate of Adipic acid continued to maintain a low position this week. About 70% at the beginning of the month dropped to 60% at present. This week, prices of major manufacturers continued to rise, and Adipic acid, a big factory in Shandong, increased by 200 yuan. The shutdown of Haili Equipment will continue until early next month, bringing positive effects to market supply. The decrease in supply is accompanied by an increase in manufacturers, which will boost the market. The improvement of supply is an important reason for the price of Adipic acid to recover. However, there has been little improvement on the demand side, and the upward trend has been suppressed.

Demand side: demand side restricts the rebound of Adipic acid market

The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. Terminal procurement maintains a rigid demand. Taking PA66 as an example, this week’s price decline is the main trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PA66 fell by 2.48% this week. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 18000-18500 yuan/ton. The reason for the price rebound of Adipic acid is that the downstream enters the slack season of the industry, orders are reduced and demand is difficult to improve.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believe that crude oil is still expected to rise in the later period, pure benzene is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the current cost side is favorable or sustainable. However, from the supply side perspective, the resumption of work by Hai Li in early next month may bring impact to the market, and supply pressure may once again become prominent. The demand side just needs to continue to follow up. In general, Adipic acid will continue to maintain a moderate recovery trend, but the upward space will not be too large.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of July 27th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, with a weekly increase of 3.85%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 3.85% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On July 26th, the chemical index stood at 834 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7333 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall market situation of domestic butanone has shown a “first decline and then rise” trend. In early July, the overall butanone market continued to decline, with insufficient downstream demand. New orders for butanone were sold lightly, and shipments were slowly affected. Some factories and suppliers started actively shipping and adjusted butanone prices downwards. In the early stage, the cumulative decrease was about 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

In late July, the butanone market experienced a rebound. In some regions of China, butanone plants were shut down for maintenance, on-site supply was reduced, and spot circulation was tight. The supply side pressure was relatively low, providing support for the upward trend of the butanone market. In addition, the upward trend of the crude oil and liquefied gas industry chain also gave confidence to the butanone industry. Some butanone factories and suppliers increased the price of butanone, with a cumulative increase of around 200 to 400 yuan/ton in late July. As of July 25th, the domestic market price of butanone was around 7300-7800 yuan/ton, with a 2.78% increase in the latter half of the year.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the market for butanone is light, with downstream purchases mainly returning to on-demand procurement. The wait-and-see sentiment on the market is gradually rising, and the overall pace of butanone shipment is average. The overall supply and demand show a slight stalemate. According to the butanone data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 24, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7433 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17 (propylene glycol reference price 7066), the price increased by 367 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.19%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.17-7.24), the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a steady upward trend. During the week, the overall supply side of the propylene glycol market was tight, with increased support from the supply side for propylene glycol. The slight fluctuation and increase in the raw material epoxy propane market also provided some cost support for propylene glycol. The propylene glycol market as a whole welcomed an upward trend. As of July 24th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton, with an increase of around 300-500 yuan/ton during the week. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is still good, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is becoming stronger after the market rises.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall supply side of the propylene glycol market is still relatively tight, and downstream new orders are slightly cautious. The propylene glycol data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 14 to July 21, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased from 5938.75 yuan/ton last weekend to 6301.25 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 6.10%.

In terms of crude oil: As of July 20th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.36 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.64 per barrel, an increase of $0.18 or 0.2%. Affected by the decline in US crude oil inventories and the increase in Chinese crude oil imports, oil prices remain relatively rigid, but concerns about the demand outlook limit the upward trend of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by 200 yuan/ton from July 14th to 21st, 2023, with a current implementation of 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6923 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 17th, the price of pure benzene was 6792 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 21st), the price of pure benzene was 6901 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.89% compared to last week and a decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for two consecutive weeks.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 7.89% increase during the week. Sinopec continued to raise the listing price of pure benzene to 6800 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton, which again boosted the market mentality of the industrial chain. The Spot market was active in trading and investment, and the shipment situation was good. The related products of the industrial chain rose this week.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene continued to strengthen, with a price increase of 390 yuan/ton in Shandong region ranging from 6400 to 6405 yuan/ton. The Shanxi region implemented a price of 6200-6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 350-360 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has slightly declined this week, and the supply of crude benzene has slightly contracted compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the production of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly rebounded this week, with a slight recovery in demand. The prices in the main production areas of hydrogenation benzene are between 6800 and 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton, indicating a moderate demand for crude benzene. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, and the market trading situation has improved. In the future, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of crude oil and styrene market trends on the pure benzene market.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly increased this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 69888.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% from the 68303.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 24.2%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 6% and increased by 6%. Recently, copper prices have continued to rise.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, inflation in the US fell significantly in June, hitting a new low in over two years, while the US Index plummeted to its lowest level in over two years, and metals collectively surged.

Supply side: The mining side remains abundant, with the copper concentrate import index of 91.67 US dollars/ton last week, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The cumulative production from January to June was 5.5592 million tons, an increase of 553400 tons year-on-year, or 11.06%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will be 902100 tons, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance and production reduction, with a month on month decrease of 15800 tons, a decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Recently, some copper, Russian copper, and Lomo African copper cancelled by LME’s Asian warehouse have entered, leading to an increase in imported resources.

On the demand side: Overseas demand is weak, while domestic high prices suppress demand. Last week, the operating rate of refined copper rods was 66.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.72 percentage points; The operating rate of recycled copper rods is 43.92%, with a decrease of 5.04 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

In summary, the domestic economy has maintained a weak recovery, and imported resources are gradually entering the country. The inhibitory effect of high prices and off-season on demand is slightly evident. Domestic inventory has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, with global inventory showing low levels. Overall, both internal and external macro recovery is expected, with copper prices expected to be mainly strong and volatile.