According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly declined, while the domestic light rare earth market has declined. On June 26, the rare earth index was 473 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 53.03% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 74.54% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have slightly declined. As of the 27th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 592500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.07% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.03%; The price of neodymium oxide is 500000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 0.99%; The price of neodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.12%; The price of metal praseodymium is 645000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.53%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 497500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.40%.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market has slightly declined, and inquiries for praseodymium neodymium products in the market have been relatively quiet. Transactions are mainly in demand, with some enterprises experiencing a decline in price support. In addition, the lack of demand support after June has caused the light rare earth market to fluctuate and decline. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased. The supply of raw materials is tight, and there are few spot goods in the market. Sellers’ quotations are cautious, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall price trend of rare earth products has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, but some enterprises are eager to ship, and the actual transaction prices have decreased. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline slightly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week (from June 16 to June 25). The price of Spot market in East China was 16150 yuan/ton on June 25, down 0.62%.

In terms of manganese ore, the price of manganese ore is relatively weak, with a stalemate in the supply and demand game. The market mentality is inconsistent, with some miners experiencing losses and firm quotations. Another part is affected by the pressure of silicon and manganese manufacturers and the reduction of external quotations, resulting in a slight loosening of transaction prices. Jupiter announced the shipment price of Mn36.5% South African semi carbonated blocks at $3.75 per ton for manganese ore to China in July 2023. NMT announced that the shipping price of Mn36.5% South African semi carbonated blocks to China manganese mine in July 2023 was 3.75 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 0.1 US dollars per ton. Port of Tianjin’s semi carbonate is 31-31.5/ton, Australia’s semi carbonate is about 39.8 yuan/ton, plus 38-38.5 yuan/ton, Qinzhou Port Australia’s semi carbonate is 39 yuan/ton, Gabon’s semi carbonate is 37.8 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonate is 30.2 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices continued to decline in June.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to maintain a weak trend, with mainstream market prices ranging from 14500 to 14600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The market continued its trend over the weekend and remained weak, with low market sentiment. In terms of supply, most domestic manufacturers ceased production after June, but the overall inventory is still high, so the supply side benefits have not shown. There has been no significant improvement in demand, and overall demand is weak. Downstream procurement intentions are still low, overall inventory is running at a high level, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The FOB price is between $2000 and $2050 per ton, a decrease of $50 per ton compared to last week. Overall, the business community expects that downstream demand will remain weak overall, and there will be little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, while waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the silicon manganese market continued to consolidate and operate, with a slight decrease in low-priced resources and fair market trading. Retail transactions were relatively light, and high prices were difficult to close. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6450-6650 yuan/ton on June 25th, with an average market price of 6576 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%.

Related data:

On June 24th, the base metal index stood at 1206 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Overview of the price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 21st, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 20766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% on a weekly basis. The market price of magnesium ingots continued to fall this week, but the decline began to slow down gradually. After falling to the 20000 yuan threshold, the price began to rise steadily. The price of magnesium in the main production areas rebounded 500 yuan/ton after the Dragon Boat Festival.

In terms of supply and demand

On the factory side, magnesium prices have fallen to the factory cost line, and there is limited room for retreat. Coupled with the difficult operation of the factory under the high temperature and scorching heat, magnesium factories have a strong willingness to increase prices. In terms of demand, the recent trading volume of some magnesium factories in the main production areas has improved compared to before, but with the approaching holiday, procurement has slowed down.

In terms of raw materials

Recently, coal prices have shown a slight rebound trend after stabilizing, with ferrosilicon futures fluctuating and rebounding before the holiday. After the holiday, the ferrosilicon market is operating in a weak consolidation mode, and magnesium prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom under cost support.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current magnesium price has dropped to near the factory cost line, and the factory is not willing to continue selling at a lower price. Moreover, coal prices have rebounded slightly today, and magnesium prices are expected to rebound at the bottom. However, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand recovery, and it is difficult for magnesium prices to continue to rebound. It is expected that magnesium ingot prices will remain stable in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19, the price of DOTP was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% compared to the price of 9290 yuan/ton on June 9. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and PTA have increased, resulting in rising costs. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9040 yuan/ton on June 19, an increase of 3.67% compared to 8720 yuan/ton on June 9. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer products increased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased.

PTA prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on June 19th was 5737.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to the PTA price of 5661.82 yuan/ton on June 9th. PTA prices have fluctuated and risen this week, with plasticizer product costs rising and plasticizer DOTP prices fluctuating and rising.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, PTA prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP increased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and PTA is sufficient, the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP has increased, and the demand for plasticizers is weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8028 yuan/ton on June 12, and the average price on June 16 was 8028 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained unchanged.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8470 yuan/ton on June 12 and 8500 yuan/ton on June 16, with a rise of 0.35% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9037 yuan/ton on June 12, and the average price on June 16 was 9037 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained unchanged.

Polyethylene prices have slightly increased this week. LDPE prices have slightly increased. The prices of other brands remain stable. The fluctuations in international crude oil prices have a certain supportive effect on polyethylene prices. LDPE devices have maintenance plans, petrochemical companies have raised their prices, and traders are highly motivated to follow suit. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and order follow-up is limited. There are many shutdown and maintenance devices, and the demand side performance is not good.

Polyethylene production enterprises have a lot of maintenance and planned parking maintenance, and the market supply pressure is not high. However, the demand for polyethylene in the market is weak, and it is expected that polyethylene may be mainly subject to fluctuations and adjustments.

The dichloromethane market rose slightly this week (6.5-6.12). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 12, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2545 yuan/ton, up 3.67% from 2455 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw methanol was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support of dichloromethane was weak; The supply of methane chloride slightly declined, and the supply of goods in the region was tight, slightly supporting dichloromethane. The price of dichloromethane rose slightly.

This week (6.5-6.12), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure remains.

This week (6.5-6.12), the price of raw material methanol has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for dichloromethane is still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.35% from last Monday’s 2180 yuan/ton.

Downstream refrigerant R 32 market consolidation started at a low level, and the demand for dichloromethane was limited. The pharmaceutical intermediates, diluents and solvents industry started to fluctuate slightly, and just needed support for dichloromethane.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business society believe that the downstream demand for dichloromethane is mainly stable at present. In the short term, the supply side of dichloromethane is slightly lower. The tight supply of goods in the region supports the price of dichloromethane. In the medium and long term, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane continues, and the new points of demand side are not obvious. The future market of dichloromethane will be volatile and consolidated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from June 2 to June 9, 2023 has slightly decreased, from 5776.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5728.75 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 0.82%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on June 8th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.24 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.96 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 or 1.3%.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on May 26, 2023, and is currently at 6500 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6383 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price fluctuation of pure benzene this week is very small. On June 5th, the price of pure benzene was 6500 yuan/ton, and on June 9th, the price of pure benzene was 6505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared to last week and a decrease of 33.73% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has been declining for seven consecutive weeks, with both positive and negative trends in recent times.

In terms of industrial chain: The rise in crude oil prices over the weekend has driven up market sentiment, and the recovery at the beginning of this week has continued, with a positive market atmosphere at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, crude oil fell 0.6%, while the styrene market weakened, dragging down market sentiment and causing a slight decline in pure benzene prices. As of Thursday and Friday, the crude oil trend rose first and then fell, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. The recent supply of pure benzene is relatively sufficient, and the market outlook is relatively short. The hydrogenation benzene market has basically followed the fluctuations of pure benzene, falling by 50-100 yuan/ton within the week. The factory price in the main production area is around 6500 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week.

From the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China from 2022 to the present, we can see that the operating rate of coking enterprises has been basically maintained at around 75% recently. After 10 consecutive rounds of landing in the coke market, the profits of coking enterprises have shrunk, the mentality of price competition and sales reluctance has increased, and the supply of crude benzene has been tight.

The crude benzene market has slightly decreased this week. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price in Shanxi is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70-100 yuan/ton compared to last week. On the supply side, the supply of crude benzene is still tight this week, and coke companies currently have a strong attitude towards price support. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market continues to decline, with most companies losing money, and some equipment maintenance operating rates declining. The overall trend of the industrial chain is low, dragging down the mentality of the crude benzene market. Overall, the recent trend of crude oil has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the market, overall weakening of the industrial chain, and tight supply of crude benzene. However, there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be some room for decline. In the future, the business agency predicts that the crude benzene market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.

Product name: Calcium carbide

Latest price (June 5th): 3000.00 yuan/ton

On June 5th, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to June 2nd, a decrease of 4.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 31.30%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1200 yuan/ton, and the price has decreased by about 100 yuan/ton, resulting in insufficient cost support for calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has recently stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and decrease, with the main focus being on consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 2900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market continues to decline. From May 29th to June 2nd, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11771 yuan/ton to 11078 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 5.89%, a month on month decrease of 5.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.63%.

The maintenance devices in the domestic BDO market have gradually restarted, and supply side support has weakened. The follow-up of terminal demand is average, and the mentality of the holding manufacturer is mainly to sell at a profit, with the market focus continuing to decline.

On the supply side, the short-term BDO supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The cost side support has weakened, and against the backdrop of insufficient demand, there is a strong pessimistic sentiment about the downward adjustment of calcium carbide. On June 2, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in the business community was 3150.00 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is weak, and on June 2nd, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2161.67 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the market in the spandex industry is weak. The Cathay Pacific Xinhua PTMEG device was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, which may reduce the digestion of raw materials. The PBT industry has a load of nearly 60%, increasing the digestion of raw materials and following up on orders in demand; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 40-50%. The PBAT industry’s load has dropped to around 10%. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will soon restart, leading to an increase in supply and a weakening of supply side support. At the same time, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand at the end, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of pure benzene has been in a downward trend this month, and the price fluctuation is not significant. On May 1st, the price was 7433 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 6573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.57% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 28.22% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

1. Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and market interest in purchasing pure benzene is average, dragging down pure benzene on the demand side.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market’s concern about the feasibility of the US cap agreement reappeared. At the same time, market sentiment was cautious before the OPEC+meeting, and international oil prices fell. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 fell by $3.21 per barrel, or 4.42%, at $69.46 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 07 fell by $73.54 per barrel, or 4.58%, by $3.53 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2307, fell 0.8 yuan to 528.1 yuan/barrel, while it fell 22.8 yuan to 505.3 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

On May 30th, pure benzene was traded outside: FOB South Korea rose or fell by $11 to $847 per ton, CFR China fell by $6 to $844 per ton, FOB Southeast Asia fell by $10.5 to $805 per ton, Europe closed at $951 per ton, and the United States closed at 354 cents per gallon.

The short-term weakness of fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient supply on the market. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.