1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices first fell in August and then slightly increased. At the beginning of the month, copper prices were 70968.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, copper prices fell to 69596.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1.93% and a year-on-year increase of 8.11%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, the spot price of copper in August is generally higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price in two months. Copper in August is generally bullish. Towards the end of the month, the main basis decreases, which is good for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in August and is at a higher level this year.

In July, the US CPI was 3.2% year-on-year, with an expected 3.3% and a previous value of 3%; The core CPI is 4.7% year-on-year, expected to be 4.7%, with a previous value of 4.8%. The MLF rate and reverse repurchase rate of the People’s Bank of China will be lowered by 15 basis points and 10 basis points respectively. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year.

In terms of supply: In August, copper supply remained abundant. In August, the centralized maintenance of domestic smelting was completed, with only one refinery undergoing maintenance. Production will return to a relatively high level, but it will face centralized maintenance again in September. The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate has fallen, but it is still at a high level, driving smelting enterprises to improve capacity utilization. The domestic supply of electrolytic copper will increase month on month. As of the end of the month, the domestic production of electrolytic copper will reach 243000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons month on month.

In terms of demand: In the traditional off-season of consumption, although terminal demand is not strong, it still has resilience. Partial orders from the power grid will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate; Air conditioning is gradually entering the off-season, and consumer support is weakening; The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy; The demand for electronics is slowly recovering.

Based on the above situation, in August, copper supply was abundant, demand was decent, inventory was relatively high, and the overall trend of copper prices was weak. Towards the end of the month, China is implementing intensive stimulus policies, with the central bank firmly preventing the risk of exchange rate overshoot, supporting the resolution of local debt risks, and adjusting real estate policies in a timely manner, boosting market confidence. However, the macro bearish interference has not dissipated. Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve stated that further interest rate hikes are still needed to combat high inflation, which in turn increases market tension and further suppresses the increase in copper prices. Therefore, short-term copper prices continue to be greatly affected by macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations. However, copper prices have shown strong performance under the support of low inventory and peak season, and it is expected that the high and volatile trend of copper prices in September will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in August. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2060 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2730 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 32.52% and a decrease of 4.21% compared to the same period last year. On August 27th, the light soda ash commodity index was 124.10, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 34.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07), and an increase of 96.52% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has risen this month. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is currently around 2700-3000 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is improving, and the current market price of light soda ash is around 2900-3200 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is good, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 81%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 140000 tons, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively low, making it difficult to find market sources of goods.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of glass has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 21.73 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 23.35 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price increased by 7.45%. With the continuous increase in glass prices, downstream traders and processing enterprises are more cautious in purchasing goods, with a focus on just demand. In the short term, the spot market for glass is mainly stable, with slight fluctuations and consolidation within the price range.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has increased this month. Individual enterprises have undergone maintenance, resulting in tight supply of soda ash and slow delivery. The overall delivery atmosphere is acceptable, and the downstream replenishment of soda ash is a game of supply and demand. It is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to improve in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Since the second half of the month, natural rubber has fluctuated and risen. The Shanghai Rubber 01 contract has been fluctuating and rising continuously from around 12800 yuan/ton, and has continued to fluctuate slightly since reaching the price level around 13200 yuan/ton. It is reported that the spot latex price in the Chinese market has increased, with an average increase of around 400-500 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 10700 yuan/ton, bulk at around 9500 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex at around 8700 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex at around 8700 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, natural rubber, which has been at a low point in the market for a long time, has recently seen a slight fluctuation and upward trend. Since the second half of August, the spot rubber market in China has fluctuated from around 11760 yuan/ton to around 11930 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 1.5%.

influence factor

1. Limited output and expected reduction in imports

On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, firstly, during the peak season of global new rubber production, production areas are affected by more periodic rainfall, resulting in a decrease in domestic and international output. Secondly, the continuous decline in latex prices in the early stage suppressed the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber; Once again, the rising cost of China’s import exchange rate and inverted profits have led to a decrease in traders’ imports, and the pressure on rubber imports has slowed down. In terms of inventory, the import volume decreased in August, resulting in a slowdown in the speed of spot inventory storage. The spot glue inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still at a high level, and the speed of dark glue unloading has increased.

2. Positive buying attitude is evident, and expectations for peak season increase

On the demand side, current rubber tire manufacturers are steadily scheduling production. The demand for tire foreign trade has increased, coupled with the continuous release of domestic travel and logistics industry demand, the consumption of automobiles and tires has continued to increase, and the operating rate of tire processing plants continues to be high. From the perspective of type, the operating rate of semi steel tires is high and relatively stable, while the production and sales pressure of all steel tires still exists, but the operating rate has increased significantly. In the second half of the month, the natural rubber market has shown an upward trend, with a clear sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in market procurement. In addition, the traditional “golden nine silver ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption are frequent. Tire companies have a certain stock demand. In addition, end consumption has started to warm up, and downstream demand for latex products has also started to rise. The natural rubber procurement end is more active than in the previous stage.

3. Further Transmission of Rotational Storage News Enhances Market Atmosphere

On the news side, in the second half of the month, there was another round of storage news in the market, causing a brief increase in bullish sentiment during the period, which also led to a volatile and upward trend in the natural rubber market. The recent investment atmosphere in the rubber market has improved.

Future Market Forecast

The current natural rubber market has been at a low level for many years, with limited downward space. Combined with the relative slowdown in foreign rubber imports, high operating levels of tire companies, and the upcoming peak season of consumption in the Golden Nine Silver Ten, the natural rubber market has obvious positive support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber may experience a volatile upward trend in the future market.

The price of plasticizer DOTP stabilized after rising this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the price of DOTP was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to August 11th, when the price of DOTP was 11620 yuan/ton. The price of isooctanol has increased, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, overall raw material costs have increased, downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for plasticizers remains weak. The price of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized after rising this week.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 18th was 11760 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the price of 11240 yuan/ton on August 11th. The production of domestic isooctanol units has not resumed, the supply of isooctanol is still tight, and the price of isooctanol has continued to rise. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. With the restart of isooctanol devices, the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on August 18th was 5872.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the PTA price of 5914.55 yuan/ton on August 11th. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, PTA costs have decreased, new PTA production has landed, PTA supply has increased, downstream construction is low, PTA demand is poor, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has decreased this week, and the downward pressure on plasticizer DOTP prices in the future has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the production of isooctanol has not yet resumed, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, PTA prices have fluctuated and decreased, and the pressure on the cost of plasticizer product DOTP to decrease has increased; Downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is cold, and the demand for plasticizers remains cold; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, there is insufficient cost support, weak supply and demand, and weak support for the rise of plasticizer DOTP. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the price of polyaluminum chloride in China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market remained stable and slightly decreased. On the 11th, the main market price was around 1718 yuan/ton, while on the 20th, it was mainly at 1712 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.36%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the impact of weather disasters is basically eliminated; This week, the price of raw material hydrochloric acid has decreased, and the market for polyaluminum chloride has remained stable and weak.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable and significantly decreased in mid August, with a price range of around 158-174 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysis suggests that the recent fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market are mainly downward.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the domestic liquefied natural gas market first leveled off, then rose and then leveled off: on August 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3640 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the market reported a main price of 3772 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 3.63%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has shown a stable upward trend.

Future forecast: In mid August, raw material prices will significantly decrease, and the fuel liquefied natural gas market will steadily rise. The cost of polymeric aluminum chloride will support mixed fluctuations. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers produce normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride is expected to remain stable with a slight weakness as a supplement.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the DBP price was 9775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the DBP price of 9812.50 yuan/ton on August 11th; The DBP price increased by 1.43% compared to 9637.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of DBP raw material butanol has fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased, and the demand for plasticizers is cold. Plasticizer enterprises are operating low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and decreased.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 18th was 11760 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the price of 11240 yuan/ton on August 11th. The production of domestic isooctanol units has not resumed, the supply of isooctanol is still tight, and the price of isooctanol has continued to rise. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. With the restart of isooctanol devices, the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 18th, the price of n-butanol was 7933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the price of n-butanol on August 11th, which was 7900 yuan/ton. In some regions of China, the centralized maintenance of n-butanol units has led to tight on-site supply and tight spot circulation, supporting the rise of the n-butanol market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. The price of n-butanol is strong and stable, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP still exists.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the production of isooctanol has not yet resumed, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, the price of n-butanol has stabilized, the market for phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DBP products has continued to rise to support the decline; The increasing demand for PVC has turned cold, while the demand for plasticizers has become cold. In the future, cost support has decreased, demand is cold and supply is tight, and it is expected that DBP prices will weaken and consolidate in the future.

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 11th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 21933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.62% on a weekly basis. This week, domestic magnesium ingots rose strongly in the middle of the week, with foreign orders delivered and demand following up actively. After reaching the 22000 yuan/ton mark, they stabilized and fell back in the later part of the week.

In terms of supply and demand

On the factory side, due to the low level of factory operations and a decrease in magnesium ingot inventory, there is not much pressure on manufacturers to ship, and the quotation is relatively firm. In terms of demand, in the first half of the week, due to the mid month shipping schedule, traders have entered the market to purchase, and inquiries have been positive, which has helped push up magnesium prices. But with the completion of demand replenishment, market transactions slowed down in the second half of the week, and magnesium prices began to loosen and decline.

In terms of raw materials

This week’s silicon iron futures fluctuated greatly, with market quotations in Ningxia region around 6600-6850 yuan/ton. The orchid charcoal market is operating steadily, with some companies that have stopped production in the early stages resuming production, and the construction of enterprises has increased. The overall inventory in the market is still at a low level, and prices remain firm.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the inventory of magnesium ingots has further decreased, with an increase in inquiries and transactions, and the quotations from magnesium factories have remained firm. But with the price increase and the basic completion of replenishment demand, it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will be mainly wait-and-see, and prices may fluctuate.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (August 14th): 166.00 yuan/ton

On August 14th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to August 11th, a decrease of 4.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Some hydrochloric acid manufacturers have slightly lowered their prices.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the future, with an average market price of around 160 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is strong and operating. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2116 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2122 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.28%, a decrease of 21.12% compared to the same period last year. On August 10th, the light soda ash commodity index was 108.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 42.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 72.32% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. The current mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. The current market price of light soda ash in North China is around 2050-2250 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, glass prices have risen, with an average market price of 22.62 yuan/ton on Monday and 23.26 yuan/ton on weekends. The price has increased by 2.83%, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. The terminal real estate policy continues to be loose, and the completion remains strong. Downstream traders and processing enterprises have high enthusiasm for obtaining goods and good trading performance. In the short term, the confidence in the glass spot market is good, and the focus of transactions continues to shift upwards.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 31st week of 2023 (7.31-8.4), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 0 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased include: light soda ash (2.23%), PVC (1.10%), and flake soda ash (0.77%); This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.67%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is strong and operating. The operating rate of soda ash is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Recently, there has been a demand based procurement in the downstream of soda ash, and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will remain strong in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. On August 10th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 250000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.66% compared to the average price of 265000 yuan/ton on August 6th. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on August 10th was 269600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.73% compared to the average price of 283000 yuan/ton on August 6th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate prices are still showing a significant downward trend this week, and lithium carbonate futures prices are also continuously declining. On the supply side, although there have been many enterprises in Sichuan region experiencing production stoppages recently, the spot supply of lithium carbonate in the market is still relatively sufficient, which has put great pressure on high prices in the spot market, leading to continuous price reductions.

In terms of demand, due to the weak downstream demand, the market’s buying sentiment is cautious. The contradiction of oversupply in the market and the market atmosphere of low short-term transactions continue to disturb the mentality of some small factories and traders. The phenomenon of low prices promoting transactions in the spot market is frequent, leading to a gradual decrease in actual transaction prices.

The price of lithium hydroxide has shown a downward trend, and the current lithium ore market is operating in a weak state. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and cost support has weakened, resulting in insufficient market mentality. However, production enterprises mainly focus on long-term orders, while downstream material factories still show insufficient demand follow-up. Procurement is mainly based on demand, with average enthusiasm and a wait-and-see mentality.

Downstream lithium iron phosphate prices are showing a downward trend, while upstream raw materials are showing a downward trend. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak, while downstream demand is average, with replenishment on demand and main supply to contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. The inventory level is normal, and the operating rate is stable.

In terms of futures, on August 10th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 217450 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 210500 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.91%, and a total of 32400 transactions and 17113 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the current lithium carbonate market is generally bearish towards the future market, so actual purchasing is more cautious. Spot prices continue to decline under pressure under the current situation of oversupply, and it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may continue to decline under pressure in the short term.