According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 14 to July 21, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased from 5938.75 yuan/ton last weekend to 6301.25 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 6.10%.

In terms of crude oil: As of July 20th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.36 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.64 per barrel, an increase of $0.18 or 0.2%. Affected by the decline in US crude oil inventories and the increase in Chinese crude oil imports, oil prices remain relatively rigid, but concerns about the demand outlook limit the upward trend of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by 200 yuan/ton from July 14th to 21st, 2023, with a current implementation of 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6923 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 17th, the price of pure benzene was 6792 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 21st), the price of pure benzene was 6901 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.89% compared to last week and a decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for two consecutive weeks.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 7.89% increase during the week. Sinopec continued to raise the listing price of pure benzene to 6800 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton, which again boosted the market mentality of the industrial chain. The Spot market was active in trading and investment, and the shipment situation was good. The related products of the industrial chain rose this week.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene continued to strengthen, with a price increase of 390 yuan/ton in Shandong region ranging from 6400 to 6405 yuan/ton. The Shanxi region implemented a price of 6200-6250 yuan/ton, an increase of 350-360 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises has slightly declined this week, and the supply of crude benzene has slightly contracted compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the production of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly rebounded this week, with a slight recovery in demand. The prices in the main production areas of hydrogenation benzene are between 6800 and 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton, indicating a moderate demand for crude benzene. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the overall upward trend of the industrial chain, and the market trading situation has improved. In the future, it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of crude oil and styrene market trends on the pure benzene market.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly increased this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 69888.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% from the 68303.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 24.2%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 6% and increased by 6%. Recently, copper prices have continued to rise.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, inflation in the US fell significantly in June, hitting a new low in over two years, while the US Index plummeted to its lowest level in over two years, and metals collectively surged.

Supply side: The mining side remains abundant, with the copper concentrate import index of 91.67 US dollars/ton last week, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The cumulative production from January to June was 5.5592 million tons, an increase of 553400 tons year-on-year, or 11.06%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will be 902100 tons, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance and production reduction, with a month on month decrease of 15800 tons, a decrease of 1.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Recently, some copper, Russian copper, and Lomo African copper cancelled by LME’s Asian warehouse have entered, leading to an increase in imported resources.

On the demand side: Overseas demand is weak, while domestic high prices suppress demand. Last week, the operating rate of refined copper rods was 66.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.72 percentage points; The operating rate of recycled copper rods is 43.92%, with a decrease of 5.04 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

In summary, the domestic economy has maintained a weak recovery, and imported resources are gradually entering the country. The inhibitory effect of high prices and off-season on demand is slightly evident. Domestic inventory has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, with global inventory showing low levels. Overall, both internal and external macro recovery is expected, with copper prices expected to be mainly strong and volatile.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market remained negative in the second week of July. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 19166.67 yuan/ton on July 14th, with a decrease of -2.54% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands remained stable after falling. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at over 60%, which is relatively flat compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. In terms of upstream, the domestic Adipic acid market continued to decline, and the low start and low demand continued to play a game, increasing the decline. Hexamethylenediamine, a major international manufacturer in the early stage, significantly reduced the factory price, which had a negative impact on the spot of PA66. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 in the second week of July was mainly sideways. The price of raw materials has weakened, which has poor support for the cost of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was set at 14140 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 2400 yuan/ton compared to January 1 (organic silicon DMC reference 16540 yuan/ton), a decrease of 14.51%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that in the first half of 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a fluctuating and declining trend. In the first quarter, the silicone DMC market rose first and then fell, with a decrease of 4.72% in the first quarter. In January, downstream demand slightly boosted, and the organic silicon DMC market saw a slight increase, with a monthly increase of 1.69%. In February, the organic silicon DMC market steadily rose and operated, with downstream demand gradually recovering, with a growth rate of 3.33% in February. In March, downstream demand was weak, and the focus of organic silicon DMC fell, with a decrease of 9.32% in March.

In the second quarter, the silicone DMC market continued to move towards the low end, with a decline of 10.28% in the second quarter. In April, downstream demand continued to be cold, and the effective support of organic silicon DMC was insufficient. The decline in April was 4.31%. In May, organic silicon DMC shipments were slow, and supply and demand transmission was hindered. The market continued to decline, with a decrease of 5.04% in May. In June, after the price of organic silicon DMC fell to a low point, the market gradually entered a stable and small decline trend, with a decrease of 1.26% in June.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is average, and new orders are limited. The operator’s mentality is cautious. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information.

Phosphate rock

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 942 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 1056 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.80%.

In the first half of 2023, the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole steadily rose. In January, around the Spring Festival, the phosphorus ore market remained stable and organized, with many mining companies suspending production and the news on the market remained calm. In February, after returning from the Spring Festival, the overall supply of phosphate rock continued to be tight, supporting a slight upward trend in the market trend, with some mining enterprises in some regions mainly receiving pre orders. In March, the spring planting season has arrived, and the downstream market demand for phosphate ore terminals is good. From bottom to top, the support for phosphate ore market has been strengthened, and the overall phosphate ore market continues to move towards the high-end. In the first quarter, the 30% grade phosphate rock increased by 5.87%.

In the second quarter of 2023, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphate ore market as a whole began a weak decline. Affected by the decline in the downstream product market of phosphate ore, downstream factories have started to operate less, demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have poor pre orders. The trading atmosphere in phosphate ore fields is light, and the mentality of operators is average. Downstream demand for raw materials has weakened, and the support for phosphate ore from bottom to top has gradually loosened. Since early April, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been continuously shifting, and the supply-demand contradiction has gradually emerged.

yellow phosphorus

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell in the first half of the year. At the beginning of January, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 33125 yuan/ton, and at the end of June, the average price was 22900 yuan/ton. The price decline in the first half of the year was 30.87%. The highest point from January to June was 33250 yuan/ton on January 4th, and the lowest point was 20000 yuan/ton on May 14th.

In January, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell by 4.15%. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the market was relatively quiet. In late February, the news of power rationing in Yunnan spread, and the overall market trading situation improved. The yellow phosphorus market price first fell and then rose, and overall, the price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 0.63%. In March, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market increased significantly, with low buying enthusiasm and difficulty in closing high-end prices. The market price decreased by 3.81%. The domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to be weak in April. The overall market trading situation is poor, with limited new orders and a significant drop in yellow phosphorus market prices, with a decrease of 20.79%. In May, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose, with an overall decline of 8.75%. Yellow phosphorus production enterprises have reduced their production load, and some enterprises have stopped, delaying the driving time. Later on, enterprises have raised prices, and prices have rebounded from the bottom. In June, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market first rose and then fell. Manufacturers mainly placed early orders, but there was not much inventory on the market, so they were reluctant to sell at low prices. The overall market price rose mainly, with an increase of 4.57%.

phosphoric acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6300 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 30.19%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6200 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 30.86%.

The price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first half of 2023. In the first half of the year, the market for raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock weakened, resulting in insufficient cost support. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and trading continues to be light, with bearish sentiment mainly on the market. There are fewer downstream purchases, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Under the influence of weak factors of cost and demand, the domestic phosphoric acid price trend continued to decline from January to May. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus stopped falling and stabilized, while the trend of raw materials for phosphoric acid was on the watch. The market price stopped falling and slightly increased.

Monoammonium phosphate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on January 1st was 3537 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2550 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 27.92%.

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline in the first half of 2023. The market for raw phosphorus ore and sulfur has weakened, and cost support is weak. The market demand is sluggish, the transaction atmosphere is poor, and the focus of market transactions continues to decline. Downstream demand based procurement leads to low purchasing enthusiasm. Under the influence of bearish factors such as weak cost side and weak market demand, the market trend of monoammonium phosphate in the first half of the year was not good. At present, in the off-season of market demand, it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the short term, with weak consolidation and operation as the main trend.

Diammonium phosphate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4000 yuan/ton on January 1, and 3737 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 6.56%.

The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and declined in the first half of 2023. The price trend of raw materials is poor, and cost support is weak. The supply of ammonium bicarbonate in the field is tight, and most manufacturers have suspended orders in the first quarter. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. In spring, there is relatively little supply of corn fertilizer, and the market has a strong mentality of buying up rather than falling. At present, during the off-season of fertilizer use in summer, the demand for diammonium continues to be weak, and manufacturers and distributors have lowered their prices. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term price of diammonium phosphate will continue to be weak.

Phosphorus Chemical Index

According to the analysis of the phosphorus chemical index of the Business Society, the phosphorus chemical index continued to decline in the first half of the year. Since June 18, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction, and the phosphorus chemical index has entered a downward channel.

Future Market Forecast

Due to sluggish market demand in the first half of 2023, the trend of phosphorus chemical industry is not good. At present, the stable operation of phosphorus chemical products is the main focus, but the terminal demand is weak and there is still no improvement. The phosphating industry has a cautious mindset and is expected to see a narrow adjustment in the market trend in the short term, with specific attention to changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, while on July 7th, the benchmark price was 7540 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72%.

2、 Analysis and Review

China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; The PMI in the United States decreased in June, and investors’ concerns about economic slowdown and energy demand have increased; Under weak supply and demand expectations, PX rebounded weakly, and short-term PX fluctuated with crude oil and downstream PTA.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The benchmark price for PX on July 3rd was 8250 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 8250 yuan/ton, with no changes during the week. PX has good profits, the overall load will increase, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply. Terminal polyester has entered the off-season, and demand is difficult to improve. PX’s supply and demand expectations are weak, and the rebound is weak. Merchants are worried about the increase in supply, suppressing market strength, and PX will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In terms of OX, this week’s OX consolidation and operation showed average transaction enthusiasm and market stability. On July 3rd, the price of OX was 8100 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, it was 8100 yuan/ton. There was no change during the week, and many neighboring benzene enterprises on the site were in a state of shutdown. The downstream industry of OX entered a seasonal off-season, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand for neighboring benzene. Overall, the upward momentum of the neighboring benzene market weakened and downward pressure remained. In the future, the neighboring benzene market was weak and stable.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline has seen a significant increase this week, but has fallen back over the weekend. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478.60 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 8730.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer vacation. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving, with gasoline prices running higher.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The main positive factor for mixed xylene this week comes from the production reduction plans of oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to support the market, and July and August are the peak fuel consumption season in the United States, with gasoline demand support still in place; The levying of consumption tax on some related products provides an opportunity for market speculation, and the mixed xylene market takes advantage of this opportunity to rise; The bearish resistance in the international crude oil market has not been eliminated, but the fundamentals have strengthened. The mixed xylene market atmosphere continues to rise, and may continue to rise slightly in the future. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fluctuated and decreased in June. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 7815.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 7175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.19%. The price has decreased by 32.27% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The styrene market price fluctuated and decreased in June. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fallen in the past three months, with a three week decline and a one week increase this month, with the decline far exceeding the increase. The main reason for the decline is the fluctuating international crude oil prices, the continuous decline in the pure benzene market, poor cost support, downstream demand mainly, weak gas buying, and the main decline in the styrene market. The slight rebound was due to a significant increase in crude oil and styrene following the rise in costs. In summary, the styrene market in June was mainly affected by costs and weak spot demand.

In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene market fell in June. At the beginning of the month, the price was 6530.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 6177.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.41%, a decrease of 35.15% compared to the same period last year. The outlook for Economy of Asia’s economy and demand continued to improve, and the US dollar exchange rate fell. The international oil price rebounded strongly. Several new supply units were about to be put into production. The operators were still worried about the oversupply in the future market. The goods holders shipped at high prices, and the demand side replenished the goods smoothly. The pure benzene market continued to decline.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in June. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average quotation for PS at the beginning of this month was 9366 yuan/ton, and the average price for PS at the end of the month was 9233 yuan/ton. The price decreased slightly by 1.42%, a decrease of 19.12% compared to the same period last year. Merchants have a slow pace of shipping and operate according to market conditions. The mainstream price of GPPS (Polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 8000-9300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 8550-9650 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials decreased in June, with an average quotation of 9475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 9400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 0.79%, a decrease of 14.55% compared to the same period last year. In June, the domestic EPS prices slightly decreased, and the EPS market lacked positive support. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may be dominated by a narrow and weak trend.

In June, the domestic ABS market fell first and then rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 29th, the average price of ABS products was 10525 yuan/ton, a 5.92% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. This month, there has been an increase in ABS enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction, and the current industry operating rate is about 77%. The on-site spot supply is abundant, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly eased. The overall inventory continues to be consumed due to short supply and oversold, and supply side support for the spot market has rebounded.

The international oil price has rebounded, and cost support has been good for a short time. At the end of the month, the market is seeking bargains to replenish the increment. The mentality of the styrene industry is good, and it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

Business Society: The domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in June

According to data from Business News Agency, as of June 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6200.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 10.40% from 6920.00 yuan/ton on June 1st.

On June 29th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 58.22, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 13.76% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the downstream resin market was weak, with resin manufacturers experiencing poor shipments, sufficient market supply, high inventory levels, and limited replenishment capacity for maleic anhydride. In addition, the price of raw material n-butane fluctuated and declined, with no significant improvement in supply and demand, and the market for maleic anhydride continued to decline. By the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 5700 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 6200 yuan/ton.

In June, the international crude oil market was volatile. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene continued to decline in June, with an average price of 6530.50 yuan/ton on June 1st and 6183.83 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 5.31%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China declined significantly, with an average price of 6600.00 yuan/ton on June 1 and 6100.00 yuan/ton on June 30, down 7.58%. The market for n-butane fluctuated and declined in June, with prices in Shandong reaching around 4200 yuan/ton as of June 30th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current market for n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride is low, while the downstream resin market is weak. There is still a downward trend in resin, and resin replenishment is cautious, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. There is no significant positive impact on the industrial chain. Maleic anhydride manufacturers mainly execute preliminary orders, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by low level consolidation in the near future.

In June, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued to experience a cliff like decline, with the decline worsening compared to May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, polycrystalline silicon fell by over 40%. The domestic supply of goods has experienced a significant decline, with an overall magnitude exceeding 30000 to 40000 yuan. At the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal density with a model of first class solar energy reached 6500-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, there is a significant oversupply of silicon materials in the market, and the operating rate of enterprises remains at a medium to high level, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity. Large factories are still in the mode of selling goods to occupy the market, and there is great pressure for enterprises to destock, making it inevitable to reduce prices for shipments. The number of orders signed by large factories this month is basically the same as last month. At the end of the month, orders from large factories were signed one after another in July. Due to the decline in silicon materials, the negotiation cycle has been shortened, and currently, negotiations are mostly held every week, especially for small manufacturers who are facing difficulties in shipping. The price difference between low-quality silicon materials and high-quality silicon materials is gradually widening.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the decline in silicon wafer prices this month is significant, basically unchanged from the decline in silicon materials. Previously, imported quartz sand remained high and with sufficient raw materials, silicon wafer manufacturers continued to operate at high operating rates. This month, the shipment volume of silicon wafers significantly decreased, and inventory pressure led to a decrease in silicon wafer operating rates. The market is in the process of destocking, and there is significant action under prices. As of the end of the month, the prices of some mainstream models of silicon wafers have been reduced by over 2 yuan. The mainstream model single crystal M10 has lowered its price by 1.35 yuan to 2.8 yuan per piece, a drop of over 32%. The mainstream price of G12 has been lowered by 1.8 yuan to 6.0 yuan per tablet, a decrease of 30%.

Terminal demand: From the perspective of battery cells and components, the price of battery cells has decreased this month, and the market is mainly in stable demand. With the lower quotation of upstream silicon wafers, the profits of battery cell manufacturers have increased. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 battery cells decreased by 0.21 yuan to around 0.71 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of G12 battery cells decreased by 0.24 yuan to around 0.74 yuan/W, with an overall decline in the 20% range. Downstream component prices have also declined. The demand for terminal installation is average, and downstream prices are significantly depressed. Currently, the market is still in a game between upstream and downstream.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that there is a significant expansion of production capacity in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially in the case of oversupply of silicon materials and silicon wafers. However, due to relatively stable downstream demand and limited demand growth, silicon material prices may continue to be under pressure. With the significant decline in silicon prices, the decline at the end of the month is gradually slowing down. It is expected that silicon may stop falling next month. However, considering the weak supply and demand situation, there is still no possibility of a rebound in silicon, and it may turn into volatility in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on June 1st.

In June, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market showed stable performance, with no significant changes in overall trading volume. Holders shipped according to the market, and enterprise quotations were mostly stable. The mainstream price remained around 3900 yuan/ton. From a cost perspective: In June, the price of raw material sulfuric acid stabilized first and then increased, while the price of raw material methanol fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost is still supported by the formic acid market. From the perspective of supply and demand, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mainly in demand for procurement, with orderly market transactions and relatively balanced supply and demand. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Import and export: According to customs statistics, the monthly import volume of formic acid in China was 1818 kilograms in May 2023, and the monthly export volume of formic acid in China was 19787080 kilograms in May 2023.

In terms of cost: Upstream sulfuric acid, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price increased significantly in June. The market price of sulfuric acid increased by 7.69% from 182.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 196.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month; Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on June 27th was 2114.17, a decrease of 2.2% compared to June 1st (2161.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that there is currently some support on the cost side, with downstream restocking being the main focus. The market trend is stable, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.