1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated significantly this week (11.13-11.17). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7203 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend is 7198 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.07% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.45%.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 17th

Shandong region/ 7130-7200 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6800-6850 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, international oil prices rose, and the news was positive, supporting the mentality of the industry. Propylene prices showed a slight increase. Subsequently, the price of propylene rose to a high level, and downstream profit margins decreased, leading to a boycott mentality and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Upstream, in order to stimulate sales, the main focus was to reduce prices and inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that in the short term, there will be limited changes in the supply of propylene in the future, and the demand side will follow slowly due to the impact of rising costs. Especially, the downstream polypropylene market remains weak and the buying intention is not strong. It is expected that the propylene market will narrow down and operate next week.

Price trend

In early November, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and adjusted, with spot prices of various brands adjusting and operating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11175 yuan/ton, a+0.45% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the recent high load in the ABS industry has continued, with an average weekly operating rate of around 72% as of the end of last week. The production of the enterprise is stable, with a slight increase in weekly total production and a significant increase in inventory positions. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials: In early November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market continuing its previous strong trend. Although the demand level is average, the price of propylene at the raw material end has surged, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has increased; In addition, due to the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, there are now delays in resuming work on individual devices, resulting in a decrease in market supply and increased supply side support. Acrylonitrile leads to bullish guidance and price increases.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly flat. Last week, crude oil prices saw a broad decline, which was negative for petrochemical chain products. In addition, the high price of butadiene has compressed downstream profits, resulting in a decrease in the smoothness of domestic shipments. However, the supplier’s operation tends to operate at a relatively high price, so the butadiene market has been able to maintain significant stability and minor fluctuations.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in early November. The main reason for the decline is also the decline in international crude oil prices and the weak market for pure benzene. At the same time as cost support weakens, downstream demand is also weak, resulting in poor transactions. Fortunately, the overall inventory position of styrene is low, and it is expected that the decline in the future may be narrow.

In terms of demand: In the early part of this month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed low stocking enthusiasm, and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, causing a drag on price trends.

Future Market Forecast

In early November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of the 13th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 21266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of the month. In the middle of the week, some downstream enterprises made bargain hunting purchases, and market transactions improved. The price of magnesium ingots increased by about 300-400 yuan/ton. Subsequently, news of the resumption of production by factories in the main production area fermented, and market transactions gradually slowed down. There were signs of another decrease in magnesium prices.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, due to the low prices of magnesium ingots in the early stage, the magnesium factory’s recent quotations have been relatively firm, which makes it difficult to sell at discounted prices. In terms of demand, downstream users’ speculative purchases increased during the week, but the news of resumption of production in the main production area affected the downstream and began to wait and see, resulting in a decrease in overall demand.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the silicon iron market fluctuated upwards, with spot prices increasing by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market quotation in Ningxia is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6875 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The overall stable operation of the national orchid charcoal market in Zhou Dynasty has been observed. At the beginning of the week, a few enterprises had poor coke surface shipments, with prices dropping by 20-40 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as raw material prices rose, some enterprises saw coke surface prices rise by 30 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Due to the expected impact of factory resumption in the early stage, magnesium prices are at a low level, and manufacturers have highlighted their strong prices. With the support of production costs, there is limited room for magnesium price reduction. However, due to the overall weak demand and the lack of upward mobility in magnesium prices, it is expected that the magnesium ingot market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has been improving this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of bromine was 24400 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the price was 25000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.19%. On November 9th, the bromine commodity index was 87.37, an increase of 0.7 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 64.36% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and a 48.29% increase from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has shown a positive trend, with mainstream quotations in the Shandong market of around 24500-25500 yuan/ton, indicating an increase in market prices. There has been a slight decrease in supply recently. Bromine companies are reluctant to sell, and some manufacturers are pushing up the price of bromine. Bromine companies are actively following suit. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price is improving, with an average market price of 946.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 970 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 2.46% and decreased by 27.7% year-on-year. The price of raw material sulfur has shown an upward trend this week, and the market trading atmosphere is good.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will fluctuate in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices rising and bromine production tightening in the near future. However, the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry of bromine will still mainly purchase according to demand in the near future, and bromine enterprises will be reluctant to sell. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will consolidate in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 7th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7466.67 yuan/ton, which was slightly weaker compared to the same period last week. The price decreased by 1.32% compared to the same period last week, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, with manufacturers giving up profits and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the same period last week. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7500 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical Index: On November 6th, the chemical index stood at 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range and weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On October 30th, the price of pure benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 3rd), the price of pure benzene was 7920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to last week and 11.67% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of Sinopec pure benzene this week is 8050 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized)

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded, but the overnight market weakened, and it is expected that East China pure benzene will shake and consolidate in the morning.

Crude oil: The Federal Reserve temporarily did not raise interest rates in November, the US dollar exchange rate fell, risk appetite returned to the financial market, and international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 12, 82.46, rose 2.02 US dollars per barrel, or 2.51%; ICE oil futures 01 contract 86.85 rose 2.22 US dollars per barrel, or 2.62%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2312, fell 0.8 to 651.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 4.0 to 655.1 yuan/barrel in the evening trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, downstream styrene slightly declined, with insufficient support for pure benzene. After the end of the month delivery, the market quickly fell, and overall spot resource trading was light. The Shandong market trading Lihuayi styrene unit is scheduled to undergo maintenance, but the demand for gas in the intraday market is relatively high, and the focus of the transaction continues to shift downwards.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% compared to the price on October 1.

In October, the market price of melamine remained stable with minor fluctuations. After the Double Festival, the raw material urea market is operating weakly, with limited support for the melamine market. The industry’s production capacity utilization rate is around 63%, and the supply side is sufficient, while the demand side performance is poor. Downstream new orders are average, with only basic procurement being the main focus. The market mentality is cautious, and the melamine market is operating weakly. The cost support in the second half of the month is still acceptable, with some devices on the supply side fluctuating. Enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders, while some export orders are good. Enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices, but domestic downstream demand is generally followed up, and market transactions are mainly in demand. Holders ship according to the market, and enterprise quotations are mostly stable and wait-and-see.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for urea on October 30th was 2556.67, an increase of 0.07% compared to October 1st (2555.00).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is strong, downstream inquiries and purchases are followed up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market situation may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in cost and supply.

In October 2023, the overall stable operation of viscose staple fibers was observed, with slight fluctuations in prices. In the first half of the month, cost support was strong, and the factory introduced a new round of price policies, with a slight increase in quotations; The overall market shipments have slowed down, with manufacturers’ inventory slightly increasing in the latter half of the month, and some quotations have slightly decreased towards the end of the month. The high prices of raw materials such as dissolved slurry and auxiliary materials such as caustic soda have a supportive effect on the price of viscose staple fibers. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively flat, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There are not many orders, and the focus of local negotiations has slightly declined. Downstream weaving manufacturers’ demand is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant. Most people are concerned about the market from November to December.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in October 2023, the prices of viscose staple fibers fluctuated slightly, with a price range of 13480-13600, which remained stable overall. As of October 31, the factory price for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fibers in China was 13500 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price of 13480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost: In October, the price of raw material dissolved pulp remained stable at a high level. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produced broadleaf dissolved pulp, with domestic dissolved pulp priced around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced around 880 dollars/ton, and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced around 890-900 dollars/ton. Currently, some negotiations are underway. The high price of raw material acidity and alkalinity has slightly decreased, and it has not yet been transmitted to the viscose staple fiber, but there are slight signs of looseness overall.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is low. In the latter half of the month, the inventory pressure of manufacturers slightly increased. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that just need to be restocked. The overall demand is average.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In October, the price center of viscose remained flat, and the cost support for human cotton yarn was strong. However, demand was light, and the yarn factory maintained a cautious wait-and-see approach. Due to local losses, the production enthusiasm of the yarn factory was not high, and the focus of local negotiations slightly declined. As of October 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) was 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 0.85%. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The price of raw material dissolved pulp remained stable at a high level, but the acid and alkali prices slightly decreased, and cost support slightly declined. The market procurement enthusiasm is not high, downstream demand is average, and the traditional peak season for textiles is about to pass. Most people are concerned about the market from November to December. Analysts from Business Society expect the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% compared to the price on October 1st.

The acrylic acid market steadily declined in October. After the Double Festival, the market price of raw material propylene has decreased, cost support has weakened, industry capacity utilization has increased, and supply of goods is sufficient. However, downstream demand is poor, and the inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not high. Holders are offering discounts to ship, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has weakened. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market has been boosted by news, resulting in increased cost pressure. The supply side’s operating load has decreased compared to the previous period, and the demand side support is weak. Holders’ shipments are under pressure, and the acrylic acid market has been sorted out through game theory. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene price has weakened, and cost support has once again shown weakness. Some units have shut down, but the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. Downstream procurement is mostly in demand, and acrylic acid prices have fallen.

Cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for propylene on October 27th was 6988.25, a decrease of 3.89% compared to October 1st (7270.75).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently some support in the cost side, and downstream companies mainly need to follow up. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate in a narrow range in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9280 yuan/ton, while on October 27th, the average price was 8560 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 7.76%.

The market price of isopropanol fell in October. In the early days, after the National Day holiday, the market situation gradually weakened and the overall trading sentiment was poor. The upstream acetone market saw a decline in the acetone market, with weak cost support. In the middle of the day, the acetone market fluctuated and fell, weakening cost support. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods and weak market price confidence. In late October, upstream acetone petrochemical companies lowered their listing prices, weakening support. Downstream, wait and see, procurement is cautious. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 8100-8300 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8500-8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price was lowered in October. On October 1st, the average price of acetone was 7807.5 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, the average price was 7437.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 4.74%. Upstream decline, traders are under pressure and eager to ship, while downstream market sentiment is low, with few actual orders and transactions, and the focus of negotiations continues to decline.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and declined in October. On October 1st, the average market price was 7270.75 yuan/ton, and on August 27th, the average price was 6963.25 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 4.23%. There is a start-up plan for the devices in the aftermarket area, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream polypropylene market has weakened, with clear bearish guidance on the news side, leading to weaker intraday trading. Downstream buying is cautious, mainly consuming inventory. Upstream inventory consumption is slow, and in order to stimulate sales, the quotation has been lowered.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have fallen one after another, and overall cost support is weak. The overall market trading atmosphere is light, with downstream and traders maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the isopropanol market may continue to decline slightly in the short term.