According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. The current price has increased by 0.53% month on month, and has dropped by 18.37% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly risen in the past month, and this week’s market continues to rise slightly. In recent times, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has seen high and strong prices, with good cost support. The supply of goods is mostly in the hands of traders, and the market circulation of goods is limited, with a slight upward trend in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7350-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased: currently, the market price of domestic 60% crystals is mostly between 2820-2850 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and analysts from Shengyishe Potassium Chloride believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

In recent times, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been mainly volatile and consolidating, and new policies from domestic manufacturers are still being discussed. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from the price of 7525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable,  the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, Some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market for phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Lower prices of ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a 2.50% decrease from the beginning of the week’s price of 8000 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, and the crude oil price trend has significantly decreased this week. The mixed xylene price has correspondingly decreased, and the raw material price has decreased. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined, and the low ortho benzene market has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly decreased, with a price of 11259.17 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.87% compared to the beginning of the week price of 11358.33 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have poor profits, plasticizer manufacturers have low operating loads, plasticizer supply is still tight, and downstream demand is weak. The mainstream price of DOP is between 11200 yuan/ton and 11300 yuan/ton, and plasticizer manufacturers are not actively purchasing, Affected by this, the market price of phthalic anhydride slightly declined.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price trend has declined recently, and the price of ortho xylene is weak. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will slightly decrease.

From November 10 to November 17, 2023, the antimony ingot market in the East China region slightly decreased. This weekend, the price was at 81500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable, with a significant downward trend in prices this week.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony fell, reaching $11150 per ton as of November 17th. The price has been continuously lowered during the cycle, leading to a weak market atmosphere and dragging down the domestic market mentality.

Prior to the supply and demand game, the antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable for 6 consecutive weeks. After a stalemate for a month and a half, the market balance was disrupted, and the antimony ingot market fell by 250 yuan/ton per week, a decrease of 1.21%. Overall, the current changes in supply and demand are limited, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. The overall supply of antimony ingot market is slightly tight, but the factors of tight supply at the mining end have been basically digested by the market, so the current impact on the market is relatively limited. In terms of demand, the downstream market maintains a rigid demand for procurement, while the downstream market maintains a rigid demand support for antimony ingots. The recent poor performance of overseas markets has led to a continuous decline in market prices, which has affected the mentality of the domestic market and caused a slight decline in the domestic market. Overall, the antimony ingot market remains weak in both supply and demand, with a strong supply-demand game mentality. The market has narrowed this week, and it is expected that the antimony ingot market will operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market is following the downward trend of the raw material market. Currently, the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, with average overseas sales performance and overall weak market expectations. Antimony oxide enterprises are maintaining demand procurement for antimony ingots, and are expected to operate weakly in the short term.

On November 19th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1109 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.70% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17) commodity price rise and fall list, with silver (3.97%), copper (1.29%), and lead (1.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium metal (-3.69%), dysprosium iron alloy (-3.14%), and nickel (-3.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.96%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated significantly this week (11.13-11.17). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7203 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend is 7198 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.07% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.45%.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 17th

Shandong region/ 7130-7200 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6800-6850 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, international oil prices rose, and the news was positive, supporting the mentality of the industry. Propylene prices showed a slight increase. Subsequently, the price of propylene rose to a high level, and downstream profit margins decreased, leading to a boycott mentality and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Upstream, in order to stimulate sales, the main focus was to reduce prices and inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that in the short term, there will be limited changes in the supply of propylene in the future, and the demand side will follow slowly due to the impact of rising costs. Especially, the downstream polypropylene market remains weak and the buying intention is not strong. It is expected that the propylene market will narrow down and operate next week.

Price trend

In early November, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and adjusted, with spot prices of various brands adjusting and operating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11175 yuan/ton, a+0.45% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the recent high load in the ABS industry has continued, with an average weekly operating rate of around 72% as of the end of last week. The production of the enterprise is stable, with a slight increase in weekly total production and a significant increase in inventory positions. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials: In early November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market continuing its previous strong trend. Although the demand level is average, the price of propylene at the raw material end has surged, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has increased; In addition, due to the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, there are now delays in resuming work on individual devices, resulting in a decrease in market supply and increased supply side support. Acrylonitrile leads to bullish guidance and price increases.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly flat. Last week, crude oil prices saw a broad decline, which was negative for petrochemical chain products. In addition, the high price of butadiene has compressed downstream profits, resulting in a decrease in the smoothness of domestic shipments. However, the supplier’s operation tends to operate at a relatively high price, so the butadiene market has been able to maintain significant stability and minor fluctuations.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in early November. The main reason for the decline is also the decline in international crude oil prices and the weak market for pure benzene. At the same time as cost support weakens, downstream demand is also weak, resulting in poor transactions. Fortunately, the overall inventory position of styrene is low, and it is expected that the decline in the future may be narrow.

In terms of demand: In the early part of this month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed low stocking enthusiasm, and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, causing a drag on price trends.

Future Market Forecast

In early November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of the 13th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 21266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of the month. In the middle of the week, some downstream enterprises made bargain hunting purchases, and market transactions improved. The price of magnesium ingots increased by about 300-400 yuan/ton. Subsequently, news of the resumption of production by factories in the main production area fermented, and market transactions gradually slowed down. There were signs of another decrease in magnesium prices.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, due to the low prices of magnesium ingots in the early stage, the magnesium factory’s recent quotations have been relatively firm, which makes it difficult to sell at discounted prices. In terms of demand, downstream users’ speculative purchases increased during the week, but the news of resumption of production in the main production area affected the downstream and began to wait and see, resulting in a decrease in overall demand.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the silicon iron market fluctuated upwards, with spot prices increasing by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market quotation in Ningxia is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6875 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The overall stable operation of the national orchid charcoal market in Zhou Dynasty has been observed. At the beginning of the week, a few enterprises had poor coke surface shipments, with prices dropping by 20-40 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as raw material prices rose, some enterprises saw coke surface prices rise by 30 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Due to the expected impact of factory resumption in the early stage, magnesium prices are at a low level, and manufacturers have highlighted their strong prices. With the support of production costs, there is limited room for magnesium price reduction. However, due to the overall weak demand and the lack of upward mobility in magnesium prices, it is expected that the magnesium ingot market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has been improving this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of bromine was 24400 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the price was 25000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.19%. On November 9th, the bromine commodity index was 87.37, an increase of 0.7 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 64.36% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and a 48.29% increase from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has shown a positive trend, with mainstream quotations in the Shandong market of around 24500-25500 yuan/ton, indicating an increase in market prices. There has been a slight decrease in supply recently. Bromine companies are reluctant to sell, and some manufacturers are pushing up the price of bromine. Bromine companies are actively following suit. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price is improving, with an average market price of 946.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 970 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 2.46% and decreased by 27.7% year-on-year. The price of raw material sulfur has shown an upward trend this week, and the market trading atmosphere is good.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will fluctuate in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices rising and bromine production tightening in the near future. However, the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry of bromine will still mainly purchase according to demand in the near future, and bromine enterprises will be reluctant to sell. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will consolidate in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 7th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7466.67 yuan/ton, which was slightly weaker compared to the same period last week. The price decreased by 1.32% compared to the same period last week, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, with manufacturers giving up profits and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the same period last week. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7500 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical Index: On November 6th, the chemical index stood at 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range and weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On October 30th, the price of pure benzene was 7900 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 3rd), the price of pure benzene was 7920 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% compared to last week and 11.67% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of Sinopec pure benzene this week is 8050 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized)

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded, but the overnight market weakened, and it is expected that East China pure benzene will shake and consolidate in the morning.

Crude oil: The Federal Reserve temporarily did not raise interest rates in November, the US dollar exchange rate fell, risk appetite returned to the financial market, and international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 12, 82.46, rose 2.02 US dollars per barrel, or 2.51%; ICE oil futures 01 contract 86.85 rose 2.22 US dollars per barrel, or 2.62%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2312, fell 0.8 to 651.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 4.0 to 655.1 yuan/barrel in the evening trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, downstream styrene slightly declined, with insufficient support for pure benzene. After the end of the month delivery, the market quickly fell, and overall spot resource trading was light. The Shandong market trading Lihuayi styrene unit is scheduled to undergo maintenance, but the demand for gas in the intraday market is relatively high, and the focus of the transaction continues to shift downwards.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% compared to the price on October 1.

In October, the market price of melamine remained stable with minor fluctuations. After the Double Festival, the raw material urea market is operating weakly, with limited support for the melamine market. The industry’s production capacity utilization rate is around 63%, and the supply side is sufficient, while the demand side performance is poor. Downstream new orders are average, with only basic procurement being the main focus. The market mentality is cautious, and the melamine market is operating weakly. The cost support in the second half of the month is still acceptable, with some devices on the supply side fluctuating. Enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders, while some export orders are good. Enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices, but domestic downstream demand is generally followed up, and market transactions are mainly in demand. Holders ship according to the market, and enterprise quotations are mostly stable and wait-and-see.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for urea on October 30th was 2556.67, an increase of 0.07% compared to October 1st (2555.00).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is strong, downstream inquiries and purchases are followed up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market situation may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in cost and supply.