1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is strong and operating. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2116 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2122 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.28%, a decrease of 21.12% compared to the same period last year. On August 10th, the light soda ash commodity index was 108.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 42.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 72.32% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. The current mainstream market price for light soda ash in East China is around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. The current market price of light soda ash in North China is around 2050-2250 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, glass prices have risen, with an average market price of 22.62 yuan/ton on Monday and 23.26 yuan/ton on weekends. The price has increased by 2.83%, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%. The terminal real estate policy continues to be loose, and the completion remains strong. Downstream traders and processing enterprises have high enthusiasm for obtaining goods and good trading performance. In the short term, the confidence in the glass spot market is good, and the focus of transactions continues to shift upwards.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 31st week of 2023 (7.31-8.4), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 0 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have increased include: light soda ash (2.23%), PVC (1.10%), and flake soda ash (0.77%); This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.67%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is strong and operating. The operating rate of soda ash is relatively stable, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Recently, there has been a demand based procurement in the downstream of soda ash, and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will remain strong in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. On August 10th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 250000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.66% compared to the average price of 265000 yuan/ton on August 6th. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on August 10th was 269600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.73% compared to the average price of 283000 yuan/ton on August 6th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate prices are still showing a significant downward trend this week, and lithium carbonate futures prices are also continuously declining. On the supply side, although there have been many enterprises in Sichuan region experiencing production stoppages recently, the spot supply of lithium carbonate in the market is still relatively sufficient, which has put great pressure on high prices in the spot market, leading to continuous price reductions.

In terms of demand, due to the weak downstream demand, the market’s buying sentiment is cautious. The contradiction of oversupply in the market and the market atmosphere of low short-term transactions continue to disturb the mentality of some small factories and traders. The phenomenon of low prices promoting transactions in the spot market is frequent, leading to a gradual decrease in actual transaction prices.

The price of lithium hydroxide has shown a downward trend, and the current lithium ore market is operating in a weak state. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and cost support has weakened, resulting in insufficient market mentality. However, production enterprises mainly focus on long-term orders, while downstream material factories still show insufficient demand follow-up. Procurement is mainly based on demand, with average enthusiasm and a wait-and-see mentality.

Downstream lithium iron phosphate prices are showing a downward trend, while upstream raw materials are showing a downward trend. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak, while downstream demand is average, with replenishment on demand and main supply to contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. The inventory level is normal, and the operating rate is stable.

In terms of futures, on August 10th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 217450 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 210500 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.91%, and a total of 32400 transactions and 17113 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the current lithium carbonate market is generally bearish towards the future market, so actual purchasing is more cautious. Spot prices continue to decline under pressure under the current situation of oversupply, and it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may continue to decline under pressure in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week (7.31-8.7). On July 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8140 yuan/ton, while on August 7th, the benchmark price was 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.44%.

The supply of mixed xylene is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of early August, the inventory of xylene in East China decreased by 6000 tons to around 18000 tons; The inventory of mixed xylene in South China decreased by around 50000 tons to around 2000 tons.

International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday, providing strong support for the xylene market. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

In terms of downstream PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and PX external market prices remain high due to the rise of crude oil. As of the 3rd, the closing prices in Asia are 1021-1023 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1046-1048 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to last Monday’s 8600 yuan/ton. Although the price of ortho benzene has increased, due to the shrinking demand for downstream phthalic anhydride, the expected upward momentum for ortho phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the support for ortho benzene is limited.

Gasoline prices continue to rise, and on the one hand, demand is improving to support the oil market. The peak summer driving season in the United States is still playing a role, with peak travel leading to positive fuel consumption. In addition, there is hope for the future of Chinese demand, and China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to support fuel consumption. On the other hand, international crude oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of finished oil forms strong support. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Friday. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 09 contract was $82.82 per barrel, up 2.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract 10 was $86.24 per barrel, up 2.02%.

Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, coupled with a tight domestic supply situation, the mixed xylene market will still be in a high exploratory upward trend; In the medium to long term, after a significant increase in prices, downstream demand follows suit and weakens. In addition, some devices are restarted, and the rise in mixed xylene in the later stage may weaken.

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose slightly this week (7.31-7.4). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3935 yuan/ton on July 31, and 4050 yuan/ton on August 4. The average price was 2.92% higher in the cycle, 6.3% higher than the same period last year.

As of August 4th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3450 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3400 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3300 yuan/ton

This week, there was a significant increase in the domestic dimethyl ether market. The supply in Henan region has decreased due to the reduction of mainstream factories, boosted by the rise in raw material prices, and the broad upward trend of related products, with upstream actively pushing up. Downstream performance is average, with a focus on demand and a resistance towards high priced sources.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and increased this week, with the price rising from 2280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2355 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.4%. The rise in methanol prices is the main reason driving the increase in dimethyl ether in this round.

Overall, if there is a weakening of cost support in the later stage, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is not high, the space for dimethyl ether to continue to rise is limited, and consolidation operation is the main focus.

The phenol market in July was affected by the tight supply of its own, leading to a rise during the month. According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the average price in the national market increased from 6595 yuan/ton on July 1 to 8337.5 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 26.4%.

Average Price Trend of Phenol Market in Major Regions of China

The quotation situation of phenol in various markets nationwide on July 31st is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ 7.1-31 Rise and Fall

East China/ 8200./1700

Shandong region/ 8150/1600

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 8150/1600

South China/ 8250/1450

Device maintenance, domestic resource supply is tight. In July, 6 sets of equipment were repaired, involving 1.3 million tons of products, resulting in a reduction in domestic resource supply.

The supply of imported goods is limited. The inventory of the port in the second half of the year is 20000 tons.

The factory continues to suffer losses and hopes to raise the listing price. From the perspective of the profits of the phenolic ketone factory, it can be seen that the phenolic ketone enterprise has sustained losses in the early stage. The factory urgently needs to adjust the listing price, and the factory has adjusted the price multiple times due to market fluctuations.

The business community believes that, in terms of current devices, there is no plan to restart the phenol ketone device of CNOOC and Shell. In addition, Wanhua Chemical Group and Jiangsuri Heng may pay attention to the situation of devices in a timely manner. At present, the circulation is limited, but facing the demand of downstream procurement of high priced raw materials, the short-term fluctuation is expected to be 8000-8500 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol increased in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6440 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 74600 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 15.84%.

The market price of isopropanol continued to rise in July. At present, the market situation for isopropanol is good. Upstream acetone market prices have risen, with strong cost support. Market confidence is good, downstream inquiries are relatively positive, overall market trading is relatively active, and the focus is gradually shifting upwards. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7200-7700 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market has been continuously rising since July. At the beginning of July, the average price of acetone was 5432.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of July, the average price was 6987.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 28.62%. The enthusiasm of intermediate traders to enter the market has increased, and their inventory willingness has increased. The inquiry atmosphere for major downstream factories entering the market has significantly improved, and the market focus continues to rise. It is expected that acetone will maintain a strong operation in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated in July, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of July, the market average was 6518 yuan/ton, and on July 28th, the average price was 6675 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2.42%, a decrease of 7.72% compared to the same period last year. In July, the upstream of propylene showed varying degrees of increase, effectively boosting the propylene market with increased cost support. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene, except for epoxy propane, have shown varying degrees of increase, with some products experiencing an increase of over 10%. Downstream products are supported by raw material costs, and the market is showing a trend of improvement.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has risen, while propylene has slightly increased. The overall cost support has driven up the price of isopropanol in the market. In addition, the export sector has performed well, and the domestic market has also performed well. Overall, the market trading is relatively active. It is expected that in the short term, the high level consolidation and operation of the isopropanol market will be the main focus.

This week (7.24-28), domestic Adipic acid continued to rise moderately. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 28, the weekly increase of Adipic acid was 0.22%. The market trading center has risen by around 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the market quotation range of Adipic acid is 9100-9300 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the cost side is favorable and the supply pressure is not significant.

Industrial chain

The figure above shows that this week, the upstream products of the Adipic acid industry chain turned red, the upstream raw material end improved significantly, and pure benzene maintained a strong trend with a significant increase. The downstream main product PA66 continues to be weak, but under the effect of price transmission, there may be rebound demand in the later stage.

Cost side: Good raw materials and prominent cost effects

This week, crude oil maintained an upward trend, bringing a boost effect to the domestic petrochemical market. The price of pure benzene in China continues to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, pure benzene rose 2.79% on the week. Compared to the previous week, the increase has increased. The main refinery’s quotation continues to increase, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton. This week, the supply of the northern market was tight, and the supply of pure benzene flowing into East China was limited. The downstream procurement was active, and the market rose. Overlapping ports to continue the destocking mode, resulting in a market shortage of supply and demand; By the end of the week, the spot trading range in East China was 6600-7200 yuan/ton. The price of Cyclohexanone, another upstream product of Adipic acid, also showed an upward trend this week, but the increase slowed down. According to monitoring, the weekly increase was 0.33%, mainly due to the rapid price increase in the early stage (5.27% increase last week). In terms of cost, the recovery of upstream raw material market has boosted Adipic acid.

Supply side: The parking supply for enterprise equipment has been tightened

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the operating rate of Adipic acid continued to maintain a low position this week. About 70% at the beginning of the month dropped to 60% at present. This week, prices of major manufacturers continued to rise, and Adipic acid, a big factory in Shandong, increased by 200 yuan. The shutdown of Haili Equipment will continue until early next month, bringing positive effects to market supply. The decrease in supply is accompanied by an increase in manufacturers, which will boost the market. The improvement of supply is an important reason for the price of Adipic acid to recover. However, there has been little improvement on the demand side, and the upward trend has been suppressed.

Demand side: demand side restricts the rebound of Adipic acid market

The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. Terminal procurement maintains a rigid demand. Taking PA66 as an example, this week’s price decline is the main trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PA66 fell by 2.48% this week. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 18000-18500 yuan/ton. The reason for the price rebound of Adipic acid is that the downstream enters the slack season of the industry, orders are reduced and demand is difficult to improve.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believe that crude oil is still expected to rise in the later period, pure benzene is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the current cost side is favorable or sustainable. However, from the supply side perspective, the resumption of work by Hai Li in early next month may bring impact to the market, and supply pressure may once again become prominent. The demand side just needs to continue to follow up. In general, Adipic acid will continue to maintain a moderate recovery trend, but the upward space will not be too large.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of July 27th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, with a weekly increase of 3.85%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 3.85% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On July 26th, the chemical index stood at 834 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7400 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7333 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall market situation of domestic butanone has shown a “first decline and then rise” trend. In early July, the overall butanone market continued to decline, with insufficient downstream demand. New orders for butanone were sold lightly, and shipments were slowly affected. Some factories and suppliers started actively shipping and adjusted butanone prices downwards. In the early stage, the cumulative decrease was about 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

In late July, the butanone market experienced a rebound. In some regions of China, butanone plants were shut down for maintenance, on-site supply was reduced, and spot circulation was tight. The supply side pressure was relatively low, providing support for the upward trend of the butanone market. In addition, the upward trend of the crude oil and liquefied gas industry chain also gave confidence to the butanone industry. Some butanone factories and suppliers increased the price of butanone, with a cumulative increase of around 200 to 400 yuan/ton in late July. As of July 25th, the domestic market price of butanone was around 7300-7800 yuan/ton, with a 2.78% increase in the latter half of the year.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the market for butanone is light, with downstream purchases mainly returning to on-demand procurement. The wait-and-see sentiment on the market is gradually rising, and the overall pace of butanone shipment is average. The overall supply and demand show a slight stalemate. According to the butanone data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 24, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7433 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17 (propylene glycol reference price 7066), the price increased by 367 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.19%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.17-7.24), the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a steady upward trend. During the week, the overall supply side of the propylene glycol market was tight, with increased support from the supply side for propylene glycol. The slight fluctuation and increase in the raw material epoxy propane market also provided some cost support for propylene glycol. The propylene glycol market as a whole welcomed an upward trend. As of July 24th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton, with an increase of around 300-500 yuan/ton during the week. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is still good, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is becoming stronger after the market rises.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the overall supply side of the propylene glycol market is still relatively tight, and downstream new orders are slightly cautious. The propylene glycol data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.