According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of mixed xylene rose first, then fell and rose, and then slightly declined in August. On August 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.57% from 8180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The high point within the cycle is 8630 yuan/ton.

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low and the supply of goods remains relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of late August, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 16000 tons; There are around 2000 tons of mixed xylene warehouses in South China, with inventory decreasing by 8500 tons compared to the beginning of the month.

High level oscillation of crude oil still supports the cost of xylene

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Drive the toluene market higher. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. The cost support for toluene has weakened.

PX Price Slightly Rises, Opening Rate Maintains Over 70% Demand, Supports Mixed Xylene

In August, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and PX external market prices remained at a high level. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were 1042-1044 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1067-1069 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is over 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend has slightly increased.

After the rise of ortho benzene in August, it stabilized and lacked support for mixed xylene in the later stage

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha surged, supported by the cost of ortho benzene; In the second half of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell. The decline in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride was bearish for ortho phthalic anhydride, and plasticizer enterprises started operating at a low level. The demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and ortho phthalic anhydride demand was weak. The price rise was weak.

The demand for xylene has been supported by the increase in gasoline and diesel consumption

The price of finished oil slightly increased in August. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level in August, and there is still some support for the cost of finished oil. The demand for refined oil products increased during the peak season in August. In terms of gasoline, it is at the peak stage of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and various factors support strong willingness of merchants to increase prices. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, boosted by optimistic diesel export profits, domestic diesel export volume remains high, and market resource supply is tightening; On the other hand, since the beginning of autumn, the hot weather has gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries has gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing period, diesel demand has slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market.

Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, domestic supply remains tight, but downstream demand weakens after a significant increase in prices. It is expected that mixed xylene will operate at high levels in the future, but the upward trend may slow down.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in August 2023, the domestic lead ingot market experienced an upward trend, with an average price of 15750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.22%.

On August 29th, the lead commodity index was 97.83, a decrease of 0.61 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On August 29th, the base metal index was 1206 points, a decrease of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. In terms of weekly trend, there was a slight increase for 7 consecutive weeks after entering July.

In August 2023, the trend of the lead ingot market was somewhat volatile in the first half of the month, while it showed a significant upward trend in the second half. In the first half of the month, macroeconomic fluctuations were limited, and the Shanghai lead market maintained a high and volatile trend. The market had a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream purchases were made on demand, with limited actual transactions. Fundamentally, in terms of supply, in the first half of the month, some enterprises underwent maintenance and some resumed production, so the overall change in primary lead supply is not significant. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries continued to be tight after August, and the tight supply of raw materials boosted the high price of recycled lead. In terms of demand, downstream consumption is still relatively low, but prices have been continuously rising recently, making it difficult to transmit to downstream. Recently, battery inventory has been accumulating, and the market is expected to decline during the peak season. Downstream purchases continue to be based on demand.

After entering the second half of the month, the atmosphere of the peak season began to emerge as the temperature increased, coupled with tight supply, and market prices rose. Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in the supply of primary lead in the second half of the month, and some areas are slightly tight due to maintenance, weather, and other factors. The supply of recycled lead is still tight, and the cost pressure on recycled lead is high. The supply is tight, and the overall price is high. In terms of demand, the operating rate of battery companies has slightly increased. Due to the upward impact of raw material lead ingot prices, the current operating rate is relatively stable. Automotive batteries have slightly rebounded under the influence of gold and silver, while other electric vehicle batteries and other batteries have not changed much. Downstream markets are generally wait-and-see as raw material prices rise, and under cost pressure, it is expected that the lead ingot market will continue to operate steadily in the near future.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in July 2023 reached 2.401 million and 2.387 million, respectively, a decrease of 6.2% and 9% month on month, and a decrease of 2.2% and 1.4% year on year. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 15.65 million units and 15.626 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.4% and 7.9%, respectively. The cumulative growth rate has slowed down compared to January to June.

From 2012 to 2022, there has been a significant increase in China’s lead production in the past decade, especially since 2015. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s lead production in April 2023 was 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in June 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1664 million tons, consumption was 1.1381 million tons, and there was an oversupply of 28300 tons. From January to June, the global refined lead production was 7.332 million tons, with a consumption of 7.333 million tons and an oversupply of 30000 tons. In June, the global lead ore production was 381800 tons. From January to June, the global lead ore production was 2.5193 million tons.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices first fell in August and then slightly increased. At the beginning of the month, copper prices were 70968.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, copper prices fell to 69596.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1.93% and a year-on-year increase of 8.11%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, the spot price of copper in August is generally higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price in two months. Copper in August is generally bullish. Towards the end of the month, the main basis decreases, which is good for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly increased in August and is at a higher level this year.

In July, the US CPI was 3.2% year-on-year, with an expected 3.3% and a previous value of 3%; The core CPI is 4.7% year-on-year, expected to be 4.7%, with a previous value of 4.8%. The MLF rate and reverse repurchase rate of the People’s Bank of China will be lowered by 15 basis points and 10 basis points respectively. The PMI values of European and American countries in August were lower than market expectations, reducing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by European and American central banks and raising expectations for possible interest rate cuts next year.

In terms of supply: In August, copper supply remained abundant. In August, the centralized maintenance of domestic smelting was completed, with only one refinery undergoing maintenance. Production will return to a relatively high level, but it will face centralized maintenance again in September. The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate has fallen, but it is still at a high level, driving smelting enterprises to improve capacity utilization. The domestic supply of electrolytic copper will increase month on month. As of the end of the month, the domestic production of electrolytic copper will reach 243000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons month on month.

In terms of demand: In the traditional off-season of consumption, although terminal demand is not strong, it still has resilience. Partial orders from the power grid will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate; Air conditioning is gradually entering the off-season, and consumer support is weakening; The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy; The demand for electronics is slowly recovering.

Based on the above situation, in August, copper supply was abundant, demand was decent, inventory was relatively high, and the overall trend of copper prices was weak. Towards the end of the month, China is implementing intensive stimulus policies, with the central bank firmly preventing the risk of exchange rate overshoot, supporting the resolution of local debt risks, and adjusting real estate policies in a timely manner, boosting market confidence. However, the macro bearish interference has not dissipated. Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve stated that further interest rate hikes are still needed to combat high inflation, which in turn increases market tension and further suppresses the increase in copper prices. Therefore, short-term copper prices continue to be greatly affected by macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations. However, copper prices have shown strong performance under the support of low inventory and peak season, and it is expected that the high and volatile trend of copper prices in September will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in August. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2060 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2730 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 32.52% and a decrease of 4.21% compared to the same period last year. On August 27th, the light soda ash commodity index was 124.10, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 34.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07), and an increase of 96.52% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has risen this month. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is currently around 2700-3000 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is improving, and the current market price of light soda ash is around 2900-3200 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is good, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 81%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 140000 tons, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively low, making it difficult to find market sources of goods.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of glass has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 21.73 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 23.35 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price increased by 7.45%. With the continuous increase in glass prices, downstream traders and processing enterprises are more cautious in purchasing goods, with a focus on just demand. In the short term, the spot market for glass is mainly stable, with slight fluctuations and consolidation within the price range.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has increased this month. Individual enterprises have undergone maintenance, resulting in tight supply of soda ash and slow delivery. The overall delivery atmosphere is acceptable, and the downstream replenishment of soda ash is a game of supply and demand. It is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to improve in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Since the second half of the month, natural rubber has fluctuated and risen. The Shanghai Rubber 01 contract has been fluctuating and rising continuously from around 12800 yuan/ton, and has continued to fluctuate slightly since reaching the price level around 13200 yuan/ton. It is reported that the spot latex price in the Chinese market has increased, with an average increase of around 400-500 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 10700 yuan/ton, bulk at around 9500 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex at around 8700 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex at around 8700 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, natural rubber, which has been at a low point in the market for a long time, has recently seen a slight fluctuation and upward trend. Since the second half of August, the spot rubber market in China has fluctuated from around 11760 yuan/ton to around 11930 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 1.5%.

influence factor

1. Limited output and expected reduction in imports

On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, firstly, during the peak season of global new rubber production, production areas are affected by more periodic rainfall, resulting in a decrease in domestic and international output. Secondly, the continuous decline in latex prices in the early stage suppressed the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber; Once again, the rising cost of China’s import exchange rate and inverted profits have led to a decrease in traders’ imports, and the pressure on rubber imports has slowed down. In terms of inventory, the import volume decreased in August, resulting in a slowdown in the speed of spot inventory storage. The spot glue inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still at a high level, and the speed of dark glue unloading has increased.

2. Positive buying attitude is evident, and expectations for peak season increase

On the demand side, current rubber tire manufacturers are steadily scheduling production. The demand for tire foreign trade has increased, coupled with the continuous release of domestic travel and logistics industry demand, the consumption of automobiles and tires has continued to increase, and the operating rate of tire processing plants continues to be high. From the perspective of type, the operating rate of semi steel tires is high and relatively stable, while the production and sales pressure of all steel tires still exists, but the operating rate has increased significantly. In the second half of the month, the natural rubber market has shown an upward trend, with a clear sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in market procurement. In addition, the traditional “golden nine silver ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption are frequent. Tire companies have a certain stock demand. In addition, end consumption has started to warm up, and downstream demand for latex products has also started to rise. The natural rubber procurement end is more active than in the previous stage.

3. Further Transmission of Rotational Storage News Enhances Market Atmosphere

On the news side, in the second half of the month, there was another round of storage news in the market, causing a brief increase in bullish sentiment during the period, which also led to a volatile and upward trend in the natural rubber market. The recent investment atmosphere in the rubber market has improved.

Future Market Forecast

The current natural rubber market has been at a low level for many years, with limited downward space. Combined with the relative slowdown in foreign rubber imports, high operating levels of tire companies, and the upcoming peak season of consumption in the Golden Nine Silver Ten, the natural rubber market has obvious positive support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber may experience a volatile upward trend in the future market.

The price of plasticizer DOTP stabilized after rising this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the price of DOTP was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to August 11th, when the price of DOTP was 11620 yuan/ton. The price of isooctanol has increased, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, overall raw material costs have increased, downstream PVC market is weak, and demand for plasticizers remains weak. The price of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized after rising this week.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 18th was 11760 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the price of 11240 yuan/ton on August 11th. The production of domestic isooctanol units has not resumed, the supply of isooctanol is still tight, and the price of isooctanol has continued to rise. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. With the restart of isooctanol devices, the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on August 18th was 5872.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the PTA price of 5914.55 yuan/ton on August 11th. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, PTA costs have decreased, new PTA production has landed, PTA supply has increased, downstream construction is low, PTA demand is poor, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw materials has decreased this week, and the downward pressure on plasticizer DOTP prices in the future has increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the production of isooctanol has not yet resumed, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, PTA prices have fluctuated and decreased, and the pressure on the cost of plasticizer product DOTP to decrease has increased; Downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is cold, and the demand for plasticizers remains cold; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, there is insufficient cost support, weak supply and demand, and weak support for the rise of plasticizer DOTP. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the price of polyaluminum chloride in China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market remained stable and slightly decreased. On the 11th, the main market price was around 1718 yuan/ton, while on the 20th, it was mainly at 1712 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.36%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the impact of weather disasters is basically eliminated; This week, the price of raw material hydrochloric acid has decreased, and the market for polyaluminum chloride has remained stable and weak.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable and significantly decreased in mid August, with a price range of around 158-174 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysis suggests that the recent fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market are mainly downward.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the domestic liquefied natural gas market first leveled off, then rose and then leveled off: on August 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3640 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the market reported a main price of 3772 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 3.63%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has shown a stable upward trend.

Future forecast: In mid August, raw material prices will significantly decrease, and the fuel liquefied natural gas market will steadily rise. The cost of polymeric aluminum chloride will support mixed fluctuations. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers produce normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride is expected to remain stable with a slight weakness as a supplement.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 18th, the DBP price was 9775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the DBP price of 9812.50 yuan/ton on August 11th; The DBP price increased by 1.43% compared to 9637.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of DBP raw material butanol has fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased, and the demand for plasticizers is cold. Plasticizer enterprises are operating low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and decreased.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 18th was 11760 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the price of 11240 yuan/ton on August 11th. The production of domestic isooctanol units has not resumed, the supply of isooctanol is still tight, and the price of isooctanol has continued to rise. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. With the restart of isooctanol devices, the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 18th, the price of n-butanol was 7933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the price of n-butanol on August 11th, which was 7900 yuan/ton. In some regions of China, the centralized maintenance of n-butanol units has led to tight on-site supply and tight spot circulation, supporting the rise of the n-butanol market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. The price of n-butanol is strong and stable, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP still exists.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the production of isooctanol has not yet resumed, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, the price of n-butanol has stabilized, the market for phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DBP products has continued to rise to support the decline; The increasing demand for PVC has turned cold, while the demand for plasticizers has become cold. In the future, cost support has decreased, demand is cold and supply is tight, and it is expected that DBP prices will weaken and consolidate in the future.

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 11th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 21933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.62% on a weekly basis. This week, domestic magnesium ingots rose strongly in the middle of the week, with foreign orders delivered and demand following up actively. After reaching the 22000 yuan/ton mark, they stabilized and fell back in the later part of the week.

In terms of supply and demand

On the factory side, due to the low level of factory operations and a decrease in magnesium ingot inventory, there is not much pressure on manufacturers to ship, and the quotation is relatively firm. In terms of demand, in the first half of the week, due to the mid month shipping schedule, traders have entered the market to purchase, and inquiries have been positive, which has helped push up magnesium prices. But with the completion of demand replenishment, market transactions slowed down in the second half of the week, and magnesium prices began to loosen and decline.

In terms of raw materials

This week’s silicon iron futures fluctuated greatly, with market quotations in Ningxia region around 6600-6850 yuan/ton. The orchid charcoal market is operating steadily, with some companies that have stopped production in the early stages resuming production, and the construction of enterprises has increased. The overall inventory in the market is still at a low level, and prices remain firm.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the inventory of magnesium ingots has further decreased, with an increase in inquiries and transactions, and the quotations from magnesium factories have remained firm. But with the price increase and the basic completion of replenishment demand, it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will be mainly wait-and-see, and prices may fluctuate.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (August 14th): 166.00 yuan/ton

On August 14th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price slightly decreased, with a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to August 11th, a decrease of 4.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Some hydrochloric acid manufacturers have slightly lowered their prices.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the future, with an average market price of around 160 yuan/ton.