According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the asphalt market fluctuates narrowly. From December 18th to 25th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3466 yuan/ton to 3459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%, a month on month increase of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.72%. Although international crude oil rebounded, the fundamentals of asphalt remained weak, with low-priced resources being the main source of transactions. Under the influence of rainy and snowy weather in the north, actual demand was hindered, with inbound demand being the main source. Some resources were mainly from the south and waterproof procurement.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently switched production, coupled with the shutdown of Landbridge. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, during the same period, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated, but overall they are still operating at a low level. As of December 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Affected by the factors of rain, snow, and cooling weather, the demand in the northern region is frozen, with some inbound demand being the main demand. The demand in the southern region has also weakened, and the demand in the asphalt market is affected by negative factors.

As of the close of December 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3718 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3751 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3736 yuan/ton. It closed at 3736 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 250679 lots, and the position was 331487 lots, with a daily increase of 9303 lots.

In the future market forecast, due to the expected factors of international crude oil rebound and shortage of raw materials, asphalt futures prices are slightly stronger. Some inquiries for forward contracts have high enthusiasm, but currently there is abundant spot supply, and demand is really flat. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate weakly in the short term.

Business Society: Narrow fluctuations in the asphalt market

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.56%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.73% year-on-year. On December 24th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.17% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.87% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly increased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material is around 1160 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, rising from 5698.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5702.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.07%. Weekend prices fell by 6.78% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late December, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly rise. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, downstream demand has increased, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, and cost support is average. Due to weather conditions, transportation in the north is slow and market circulation is tight. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate narrowly and rise in late December, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash is running steadily. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period last year. On December 21, the commodity index of light soda ash was 143.59, unchanged from yesterday. It was a decrease of 24.07% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle and an increase of 127.38% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. The price of caustic soda in the North China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton for light caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in the East China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton for light caustic soda. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 83%.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly declined, with an average market price of 22.19 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 21.86 yuan/square meter on the weekend, a price drop of 1.49% and a year-on-year increase of 20.24%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 50th week of 2023 (12.11-12.15), there were 2 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (0.72%) and calcium carbide (0.57%); The main commodities falling are: caustic soda (-0.91%), baking soda (-0.26%), and PVC (-0.21%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.01%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is relatively stable. There is data showing that 350000 tons of pure alkali were stored for fish production during the week, with downstream procurement being the main focus. Based on the supply-demand game, it is expected that the operation of pure alkali will be mainly stable, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have slightly declined, while the light rare earth market prices have continued to decline. On December 20th, the rare earth index was 461 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 54.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 70.11% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has declined. As of the 21st, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.65 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.75% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.545 million yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.78% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.325 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.05%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.95 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.5 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend of heavy rare earth market has fallen, with limited transactions in the rare earth market, rare new orders, and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have a low purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a decline in the rare earth market trend. In 2023, the total control indicators of the third batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 15000 tons and 13850 tons respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators will be published every year. In 2023, the third batch of indicators will be published, and the mining output will increase, which will be bad for the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black has remained stable this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 9700 yuan/ton

In terms of raw materials, this week, under the influence of rainy and snowy weather, the supply of coal tar has been slightly tight, and the market price of coal tar has fluctuated and increased. According to the price display of Business Society, as of the 17th, the market price of coal tar was 4417 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 1.98% this week, which has strengthened the support for the cost of carbon black. The tight supply side has led to a slight increase in market prices for coal tar in the main production areas of Shandong and Shanxi. However, the main downstream products coal tar and carbon black are still declining in price due to poor terminal demand, and there are currently no eye-catching products in the downstream industry. Therefore, coal tar will only be purchased on demand, and the increase in coal tar prices in the future is limited. It is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side: In November, some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises. In December, due to environmental factors, some carbon black enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions were restricted in their operations, and the operating rate of carbon black enterprises was slightly reduced.

In terms of terminals: Under the influence of cold winter weather, the impact of the off-season is gradually becoming apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. The demand for terminals is weak, and the inventory of enterprises continues to slowly increase. Some tire enterprises are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. Manufacturers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black raw materials, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.

In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased from December 11th to December 18th, 2023, with a price increase of 6063.75 yuan/ton this weekend and 5901.25 yuan/ton last weekend, up 2.75%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures closed lower on December 15th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.43 per barrel, a decrease of $0.15 or 0.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 76.55 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars or 0.1%. On the one hand, there was a oversold in the market before. On the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar has boosted the valuation of oil prices, coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand, boosting the oil market. Prediction: In the near future, crude oil will still be short, with the expectation of oversupply and the risk of declining demand coexisting. It is not ruled out that oil prices may continue to seek lower space.

Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene continues to be 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6823 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 11th, the price of pure benzene was 6742 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 15th), the price of pure benzene was 6823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% from last week and 3.69% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market fell first and then rose this week, while the pure benzene market followed suit. The overall performance of the market atmosphere was still good, with positive market transactions and good trading atmosphere, driving the hydrogenated benzene market to follow suit. The ex factory price in the main production area rose to 6900 yuan/ton, while the spot market rose by 150-200 yuan/ton. As the weekend approached, the market weakened and the market atmosphere followed suit.

This week, the upward trend in the pure benzene market has driven an overall positive atmosphere in the industrial chain. Sinopec’s listed price has remained at 6800 yuan/ton, stabilizing from last week. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production area has risen to 6800-6900 yuan/ton, indicating good market negotiation performance. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises continued to decline this week, with some coking enterprises still limiting production and crude benzene supply slightly tight. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises slightly rebounded within the week, indicating good demand for crude benzene. Downstream enterprises purchase according to demand. The recent performance of the supply and demand side has been relatively stable, with the market closely following the trend of upstream commodities. Recently, crude oil has been operating at a low level, and pure benzene inventories in East China are relatively high, which has put some pressure on market sentiment. It is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will be weak and volatile in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the impact of crude oil and styrene market trends on the pure benzene market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5933.33 yuan/ton. This week, the white carbon black market price remained stable, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of white carbon black in the market remained stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was flat, and downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs, with average demand and weak stocking enthusiasm. Manufacturers mainly offered discounts and took orders, and the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical index: On December 14th, the chemical index was 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market will mainly operate steadily, with mainstream prices around 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from December 1st to 8th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9406 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% during the cycle, with a month on month decrease of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. The raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and Sinopec has listed a reduction to 6800 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and downward, resulting in a lower focus on transactions.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has experienced a significant decline, while crude oil has continued to decline widely, suppressing a bearish market sentiment. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6700.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 61.94%, which is -0.71% higher than last week. The weekly production is 93900 tons, which is+0.12 million tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market continues to decline, with upstream pure benzene prices continuing to weaken in recent times. The main listing has been continuously lowered, forming a negative impact on the cost side. Downstream polymerization factories lack confidence, and the pace of raw material procurement has slowed down. In addition, with some devices returning to normal, the tight supply situation in the early stage has been alleviated, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is weakly consolidated, with a lack of cost support, and downstream demand for cyclohexanone is empty. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of titanium dioxide remained stable this week, with an average price of 16650 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market prices are basically stable. Foreign export orders have increased, and the export market remains good. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased by $100 per ton since January 1, 2024. The trading situation in the domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, the market situation is weak, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, making orders more cautious. The raw material market is at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. They have delivered more early orders, but new transactions are limited. The market is under pressure, and overall stability is the main focus. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, according to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has slightly increased. At present, the overall trading volume in the market is still acceptable, and spot prices are slightly tight. The procurement situation of downstream titanium dioxide is average, and the overall market tends to be strong, with consolidation and operation. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is around 1480-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the transaction volume in the titanium concentrate market is still good, and the overall market is operating steadily. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, as of December 11th, the reference price for sulfuric acid is 282 yuan/ton, according to monitoring of bulk commodity data. Compared to December 4th (292 yuan/ton), the price has dropped by 3.42%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a slight decline, weakening cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has recently stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the current export situation of titanium dioxide market is good, while the domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively weak. The raw material titanium concentrate market has slightly increased, with sulfuric acid prices falling and raw material support being average. Overall, the market situation is light, with poor trading, and most companies are mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from the beginning of the week’s price of 4000 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the downstream procurement situation is still good. The price of ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the procurement of domestic downstream civil explosives industry is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation price in Shaanxi region is 5100-5200 yuan/ton, in Shandong region it is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei region it is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 2300 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 2.22% compared to the price of 2250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2400 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2300 yuan/ton. At present, there is not much change in the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market, and the cost trend is rising. The supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market transaction situation is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The price trend of nitric acid in the market is rising, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia has risen this week, with a price of 4056.67 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 5.0% from the initial price of 3863.33 yuan/ton. The main production areas in the north are mainly affected by price increases. Environmental protection in Shandong has affected the start of construction, and some urea plants in Hebei have reduced production. Coupled with temporary failures in some plants in Shanxi, the market has shown a tightening of supply. Large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have generally raised prices, and dealer quotes have followed suit. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly improved, and both supply and demand are favorable for the domestic ammonia market. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not changed much due to this impact.

Recently, the procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has been relatively normal, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is still acceptable. In addition, the upstream liquid ammonia price trend is rising, but there is a downward trend in nitric acid prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to a stable price trend in the ammonium nitrate market, which is believed by analysts from Business Society.