In December, the price of metallic silicon rose and was in an overall upward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of November 29, 2023, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 15620 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.90% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.39% from the same period last year. In December, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of weak supply and demand, with the supply side continuing to contract. This was mainly due to the low inventory of silicon factories in Xinjiang due to environmental restrictions in the north; The Southwest region has officially entered the dry season, and the operating rate remains low. Supply disruptions drive up prices.

Supply side

In December, China’s silicon metal production was about 363510 tons, a month on month decrease of 59510 tons, a decrease of 14.07%, and a year-on-year increase of 59030 tons, an increase of 19.39%. Among them, Xinjiang produced 182300 tons, accounting for 50.15% of the total production; Yunnan’s production is 479780 tons, accounting for 13.69% of the total production; Sichuan produces 23900 tons, accounting for 6.57% of the total production. In 2023, the cumulative production was 3914020 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 411450 tons, an increase of 11.75%.

The supply of metallic silicon has actually contracted, the cost of electricity in Southwest China is too high, the production enthusiasm of silicon plants is low, and the shutdown and reduction of production have increased. The weekly production has basically been at the bottom of the same period in history; Affected by cold wave weather and environmental policies, production in the north has decreased. High energy consuming enterprises in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia have been notified to take turns insulation during the morning and evening peaks. Currently, three silicon enterprises have been affected, with a daily insulation time of 2-4 hours, and there is no clear end time for power restrictions; Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have been notified to maintain a 2-hour daily insulation, while other silicon factories in Ili are temporarily operating normally.

Demand side

In December, domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend from the previous month, with a slight slowdown in the decline. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is maintained at 55-6000 yuan/ton. Silicon material manufacturers are maintaining a reasonable level of operation, and maintenance equipment has been gradually started before. The addition of new production facilities gradually reaches mass production, bringing about stable supply increment. The increase in supply leads to the accumulation of inventory in enterprises, weakening the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers, lowering prices to clear inventory, and coupled with the decrease in winter installation demand, polycrystalline silicon enterprises still have the possibility of continuing to lower prices.

In December, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak downward trend, with the market center constantly moving towards a low level. At the end of the month, the market price was around 13500-14200 yuan/ton. Some organic silicon DMC factories have reduced their operating costs and actively adjusted their operating rates to adapt to the current weak market. However, due to demand constraints, the overall supply pressure on organic silicon DMC factories still exists. With the continuous exploration of market prices, downstream demand has improved to a certain extent, bringing a slight upward trend to the market. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly operate steadily

In December, the price of aluminum alloy fluctuated and increased, with a slight increase in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 20100 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy factories will have a moderate amount of inventory by the end of the year. It is also difficult to place large quantities of orders during the process of silicon price increase, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment.

According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in November reached 47600 tons, an increase of 9.17% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 3.25% compared to the same period last year. Exports slightly increased compared to October, but the export price of metallic silicon increased due to the improvement in foreign market demand and the rise in the RMB exchange rate.

Future Market Forecast

The decrease in operating rates of silicon factories in the north and south has effectively alleviated the overall supply pressure on the metal silicon market. In December, the market sentiment was slightly optimistic, with prices rising slightly. In terms of demand, the price of polycrystalline silicon is prone to decline but difficult to rise, but with the release of new production capacity, production remains high, and there is still a good demand for metallic silicon; With the weak market situation, the operating rate of organic silicon has slightly declined, and there is a possibility of further decline in the operating rate of organic silicon factories in the future; The price of aluminum alloy has increased, but the purchase of metallic silicon remains in high demand. Overall, in the short term, the supply of metallic silicon in the market will be less than demand, and market sentiment has been boosted. It is expected that silicon prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in January.

As of December 28, 2022, the DMF market has shown a volatile downward trend, with a decline of 21.14% throughout the year. The overall DMF market is weak, with insufficient demand, weak upstream support, and insufficient price upward momentum. The high point of DMF prices in 2023 was at the beginning of the year at 6150 yuan/ton, and the low point was in July at 4550 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand balance is the main factor.

In 2023, the DMF market experienced ups and downs. In January, there was a clear upward trend, followed by a subsequent decline in prices. The downward trend continued until July, when prices bottomed out and rebounded. From August to September, there was a clear upward trend, followed by a downward trend in prices. The overall transaction atmosphere of the DMF market in 2023 was poor, with a sluggish market and slow shipments, and most manufacturers operating under pressure. So, what is the trend in 2024? Will spring come?

DMF is an important industrial solvent widely used in industries such as synthetic fibers, plastics, films, textiles, paints, and coatings. It is also a commonly used hydrogenation reaction reagent and extractant, and has important applications in organic synthesis, drug synthesis, and electronics industries. Its use is very extensive and closely related to daily life. Since 2022-2023, the DMF market has been showing a weak downward trend, with slow economic recovery, Most manufacturers restock on demand and place orders cautiously. The overall market sentiment is insufficient, and enterprises are operating under pressure. The cost side is hovering, and prices continue to decline, but there is still no improvement. 2024 is approaching, and with the economic recovery, DMF is expected to break through the dull trend.

The overall trend of upstream methanol is similar to that of DMF. Overall, the price trend of DMF is closely related to methanol. Methanol showed a fluctuating downward trend in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, the price stopped falling and rebounded. As the end of the year approaches, the price showed a fluctuating operating trend. The trend of DMF in 2024 depends on the specific trend of upstream methanol and the increase in downstream demand.

In 2023, DMF experienced a volatile downward trend, with slight support from the cost side and insufficient demand from downstream customers, resulting in enormous pressure on DMF enterprises to operate under pressure throughout the year. Currently, prices are at a low level in recent years, and DMF prices are expected to rebound in 2024. With the recovery of the economy, people’s mentality has shifted from confusion and observation to full confidence, believing that DMF will have new vitality in 2024.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined recently. On the 18th, the market reported around 13260 yuan/ton, and on the 26th, it reported around 13240 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.15%. The raw material acrylonitrile remains stable overall, with a slight decline in acrylic acid prices and a slight decline in polyacrylamide costs. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, with abundant market supply and weak downstream demand. The circulation of goods is slow, and the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has remained stable recently, and as of December 26th, the loose water price in the acrylonitrile market is 9862 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9700 to 9900 yuan/ton. Rising raw material prices, cost support for acrylonitrile prices; The weak market trend in the main downstream ABS market continues, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating, and production slightly declining; The supply side of acrylonitrile units is loose, while the demand side is weak. The acrylonitrile market is in urgent need of inquiry support, and the market is consolidating.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall acrylic acid market has slightly declined recently. As of December 26th, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in East China is 6175 yuan/ton. At present, there is strong cost pressure, and some regions have plans to park their facilities. However, during the off-season of demand, there is limited follow-up on inquiries and procurement. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of liquefied natural gas in China has recently increased significantly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices. The slight increase in raw gas prices has increased cost support, driving up liquid prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, the overall raw material prices have slightly declined, the fuel market has significantly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the asphalt market fluctuates narrowly. From December 18th to 25th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3466 yuan/ton to 3459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%, a month on month increase of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.72%. Although international crude oil rebounded, the fundamentals of asphalt remained weak, with low-priced resources being the main source of transactions. Under the influence of rainy and snowy weather in the north, actual demand was hindered, with inbound demand being the main source. Some resources were mainly from the south and waterproof procurement.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently switched production, coupled with the shutdown of Landbridge. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, during the same period, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated, but overall they are still operating at a low level. As of December 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Affected by the factors of rain, snow, and cooling weather, the demand in the northern region is frozen, with some inbound demand being the main demand. The demand in the southern region has also weakened, and the demand in the asphalt market is affected by negative factors.

As of the close of December 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3718 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3751 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3736 yuan/ton. It closed at 3736 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 250679 lots, and the position was 331487 lots, with a daily increase of 9303 lots.

In the future market forecast, due to the expected factors of international crude oil rebound and shortage of raw materials, asphalt futures prices are slightly stronger. Some inquiries for forward contracts have high enthusiasm, but currently there is abundant spot supply, and demand is really flat. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate weakly in the short term.

Business Society: Narrow fluctuations in the asphalt market

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.56%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.73% year-on-year. On December 24th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.17% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.87% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly increased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material is around 1160 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, rising from 5698.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5702.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.07%. Weekend prices fell by 6.78% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late December, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly rise. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, downstream demand has increased, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, and cost support is average. Due to weather conditions, transportation in the north is slow and market circulation is tight. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate narrowly and rise in late December, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash is running steadily. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period last year. On December 21, the commodity index of light soda ash was 143.59, unchanged from yesterday. It was a decrease of 24.07% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle and an increase of 127.38% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. The price of caustic soda in the North China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton for light caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in the East China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2700-2850 yuan/ton for light caustic soda. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 83%.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly declined, with an average market price of 22.19 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 21.86 yuan/square meter on the weekend, a price drop of 1.49% and a year-on-year increase of 20.24%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 50th week of 2023 (12.11-12.15), there were 2 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (0.72%) and calcium carbide (0.57%); The main commodities falling are: caustic soda (-0.91%), baking soda (-0.26%), and PVC (-0.21%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.01%..

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is relatively stable. There is data showing that 350000 tons of pure alkali were stored for fish production during the week, with downstream procurement being the main focus. Based on the supply-demand game, it is expected that the operation of pure alkali will be mainly stable, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have slightly declined, while the light rare earth market prices have continued to decline. On December 20th, the rare earth index was 461 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 54.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 70.11% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015.

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has declined. As of the 21st, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.65 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.75% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.545 million yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.78% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.325 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.05%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.95 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.5 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend of heavy rare earth market has fallen, with limited transactions in the rare earth market, rare new orders, and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have a low purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, leading to a decline in the rare earth market trend. In 2023, the total control indicators of the third batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 15000 tons and 13850 tons respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators will be published every year. In 2023, the third batch of indicators will be published, and the mining output will increase, which will be bad for the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black has remained stable this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 9700 yuan/ton

In terms of raw materials, this week, under the influence of rainy and snowy weather, the supply of coal tar has been slightly tight, and the market price of coal tar has fluctuated and increased. According to the price display of Business Society, as of the 17th, the market price of coal tar was 4417 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 1.98% this week, which has strengthened the support for the cost of carbon black. The tight supply side has led to a slight increase in market prices for coal tar in the main production areas of Shandong and Shanxi. However, the main downstream products coal tar and carbon black are still declining in price due to poor terminal demand, and there are currently no eye-catching products in the downstream industry. Therefore, coal tar will only be purchased on demand, and the increase in coal tar prices in the future is limited. It is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side: In November, some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises. In December, due to environmental factors, some carbon black enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions were restricted in their operations, and the operating rate of carbon black enterprises was slightly reduced.

In terms of terminals: Under the influence of cold winter weather, the impact of the off-season is gradually becoming apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. The demand for terminals is weak, and the inventory of enterprises continues to slowly increase. Some tire enterprises are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. Manufacturers have poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black raw materials, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.

In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased from December 11th to December 18th, 2023, with a price increase of 6063.75 yuan/ton this weekend and 5901.25 yuan/ton last weekend, up 2.75%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures closed lower on December 15th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.43 per barrel, a decrease of $0.15 or 0.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 76.55 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars or 0.1%. On the one hand, there was a oversold in the market before. On the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar has boosted the valuation of oil prices, coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand, boosting the oil market. Prediction: In the near future, crude oil will still be short, with the expectation of oversupply and the risk of declining demand coexisting. It is not ruled out that oil prices may continue to seek lower space.

Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene continues to be 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6823 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 11th, the price of pure benzene was 6742 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 15th), the price of pure benzene was 6823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.79% from last week and 3.69% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market fell first and then rose this week, while the pure benzene market followed suit. The overall performance of the market atmosphere was still good, with positive market transactions and good trading atmosphere, driving the hydrogenated benzene market to follow suit. The ex factory price in the main production area rose to 6900 yuan/ton, while the spot market rose by 150-200 yuan/ton. As the weekend approached, the market weakened and the market atmosphere followed suit.

This week, the upward trend in the pure benzene market has driven an overall positive atmosphere in the industrial chain. Sinopec’s listed price has remained at 6800 yuan/ton, stabilizing from last week. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production area has risen to 6800-6900 yuan/ton, indicating good market negotiation performance. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises continued to decline this week, with some coking enterprises still limiting production and crude benzene supply slightly tight. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises slightly rebounded within the week, indicating good demand for crude benzene. Downstream enterprises purchase according to demand. The recent performance of the supply and demand side has been relatively stable, with the market closely following the trend of upstream commodities. Recently, crude oil has been operating at a low level, and pure benzene inventories in East China are relatively high, which has put some pressure on market sentiment. It is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will be weak and volatile in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the impact of crude oil and styrene market trends on the pure benzene market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5933.33 yuan/ton. This week, the white carbon black market price remained stable, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of white carbon black in the market remained stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was flat, and downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs, with average demand and weak stocking enthusiasm. Manufacturers mainly offered discounts and took orders, and the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical index: On December 14th, the chemical index was 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market will mainly operate steadily, with mainstream prices around 6000 yuan/ton.