According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% compared to the price on October 1.

In October, the market price of melamine remained stable with minor fluctuations. After the Double Festival, the raw material urea market is operating weakly, with limited support for the melamine market. The industry’s production capacity utilization rate is around 63%, and the supply side is sufficient, while the demand side performance is poor. Downstream new orders are average, with only basic procurement being the main focus. The market mentality is cautious, and the melamine market is operating weakly. The cost support in the second half of the month is still acceptable, with some devices on the supply side fluctuating. Enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders, while some export orders are good. Enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices, but domestic downstream demand is generally followed up, and market transactions are mainly in demand. Holders ship according to the market, and enterprise quotations are mostly stable and wait-and-see.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for urea on October 30th was 2556.67, an increase of 0.07% compared to October 1st (2555.00).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is strong, downstream inquiries and purchases are followed up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market situation may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in cost and supply.

In October 2023, the overall stable operation of viscose staple fibers was observed, with slight fluctuations in prices. In the first half of the month, cost support was strong, and the factory introduced a new round of price policies, with a slight increase in quotations; The overall market shipments have slowed down, with manufacturers’ inventory slightly increasing in the latter half of the month, and some quotations have slightly decreased towards the end of the month. The high prices of raw materials such as dissolved slurry and auxiliary materials such as caustic soda have a supportive effect on the price of viscose staple fibers. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively flat, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There are not many orders, and the focus of local negotiations has slightly declined. Downstream weaving manufacturers’ demand is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant. Most people are concerned about the market from November to December.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in October 2023, the prices of viscose staple fibers fluctuated slightly, with a price range of 13480-13600, which remained stable overall. As of October 31, the factory price for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fibers in China was 13500 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price of 13480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost: In October, the price of raw material dissolved pulp remained stable at a high level. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produced broadleaf dissolved pulp, with domestic dissolved pulp priced around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced around 880 dollars/ton, and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced around 890-900 dollars/ton. Currently, some negotiations are underway. The high price of raw material acidity and alkalinity has slightly decreased, and it has not yet been transmitted to the viscose staple fiber, but there are slight signs of looseness overall.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is low. In the latter half of the month, the inventory pressure of manufacturers slightly increased. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that just need to be restocked. The overall demand is average.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In October, the price center of viscose remained flat, and the cost support for human cotton yarn was strong. However, demand was light, and the yarn factory maintained a cautious wait-and-see approach. Due to local losses, the production enthusiasm of the yarn factory was not high, and the focus of local negotiations slightly declined. As of October 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) was 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, with a monthly decrease of 0.85%. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The price of raw material dissolved pulp remained stable at a high level, but the acid and alkali prices slightly decreased, and cost support slightly declined. The market procurement enthusiasm is not high, downstream demand is average, and the traditional peak season for textiles is about to pass. Most people are concerned about the market from November to December. Analysts from Business Society expect the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% compared to the price on October 1st.

The acrylic acid market steadily declined in October. After the Double Festival, the market price of raw material propylene has decreased, cost support has weakened, industry capacity utilization has increased, and supply of goods is sufficient. However, downstream demand is poor, and the inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not high. Holders are offering discounts to ship, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has weakened. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market has been boosted by news, resulting in increased cost pressure. The supply side’s operating load has decreased compared to the previous period, and the demand side support is weak. Holders’ shipments are under pressure, and the acrylic acid market has been sorted out through game theory. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene price has weakened, and cost support has once again shown weakness. Some units have shut down, but the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. Downstream procurement is mostly in demand, and acrylic acid prices have fallen.

Cost side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for propylene on October 27th was 6988.25, a decrease of 3.89% compared to October 1st (7270.75).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that there is currently some support in the cost side, and downstream companies mainly need to follow up. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate in a narrow range in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9280 yuan/ton, while on October 27th, the average price was 8560 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 7.76%.

The market price of isopropanol fell in October. In the early days, after the National Day holiday, the market situation gradually weakened and the overall trading sentiment was poor. The upstream acetone market saw a decline in the acetone market, with weak cost support. In the middle of the day, the acetone market fluctuated and fell, weakening cost support. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods and weak market price confidence. In late October, upstream acetone petrochemical companies lowered their listing prices, weakening support. Downstream, wait and see, procurement is cautious. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 8100-8300 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8500-8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price was lowered in October. On October 1st, the average price of acetone was 7807.5 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, the average price was 7437.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 4.74%. Upstream decline, traders are under pressure and eager to ship, while downstream market sentiment is low, with few actual orders and transactions, and the focus of negotiations continues to decline.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and declined in October. On October 1st, the average market price was 7270.75 yuan/ton, and on August 27th, the average price was 6963.25 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 4.23%. There is a start-up plan for the devices in the aftermarket area, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream polypropylene market has weakened, with clear bearish guidance on the news side, leading to weaker intraday trading. Downstream buying is cautious, mainly consuming inventory. Upstream inventory consumption is slow, and in order to stimulate sales, the quotation has been lowered.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have fallen one after another, and overall cost support is weak. The overall market trading atmosphere is light, with downstream and traders maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the isopropanol market may continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 170.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.62%. The weekend price has decreased by 5.56% year-on-year. On October 22, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 44.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.55% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 148.83% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly increased this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1728.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1732.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.22%. The weekend price fell by 13.86% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have shown an upward trend, and downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, while the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5425 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.46% and a month on month decrease of 2.25%. The current price has decreased by 14.23% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market has declined this week, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side fluctuated slightly, with average cost support, poor downstream demand, weak procurement, and higher inventory of potassium nitrate manufacturers, leading to a downward adjustment in prices. According to statistics from Business News Agency, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5100-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated slightly. The trend of potassium chloride market is mainly organized. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average.

Recently, there has been an upward trend in the domestic potassium chloride market price, with a relatively concentrated supply of goods and traders reluctant to sell. Cost support is good, and it is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to be on the sidelines.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with the price of potassium chloride dropping from 2975.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2912.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.10%. On October 15th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 92.46, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 47.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 58.73% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly declined this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2700 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2750 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market decreased slightly this week, from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7530.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.26%. The weekend price fell by 19.03% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.80%. The weekend price decreased by 15.18% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have been fluctuating this week. As of October 13th, the spot nickel quotation was 153750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 19.79%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have decreased by 8% and increased by 3%, with a recent wide fluctuation trend in nickel prices.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the US CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year in September, higher than expected, marking the third consecutive month of rebound; The core CPI dropped from 4.3% last month to 4.1%, the smallest increase in nearly two years, but still above 4%, far above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%. This also highlights the stubbornness of inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, which also brings uncertainty to the final results of interest rate negotiations in November and December; On the domestic side, the issuance of local government refinancing bonds has accelerated, boosting market confidence.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and domestic pure nickel supply is sufficient, resulting in a slowdown in market inventory consumption. In September 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 22100 tons, an increase of 1.4% month on month and 43.18% year on year. The increase in production was mainly affected by the continuous increase in newly added electrolytic nickel production and the continuous increase in production of a certain smelter in northwest China. It is expected that the national refined nickel production in October will reach 22800 tons, a month on month increase of 2.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.05%.

In terms of demand: The total social inventory of stainless steel this week was 1.1278 million tons, a decrease of 3.34% compared to the previous week. All departments have varying degrees of digestion. The high inventory of nickel iron in the raw material end combined with a significant increase in imports has led to a slight decrease in prices. Recently, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines has been lowered, and support will be weakened. In terms of new energy vehicles, some battery and material factories still have varying degrees of reduction in production compared to the previous month, suppressing the demand for nickel sulfate.

In summary, the domestic nickel supply is loose, the expected reduction in stainless steel production leads to price increases, LME inventory is depleted, and spot trading has slightly improved. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a broad and volatile trend.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of PET water bottle grade has been declining in a narrow range, with an average price of 7190 yuan/ton. In September, the PET market price fell by 1.51%, with the overall market operating in a weak range. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

In September, domestic PET prices remained stable and slightly weak, with prices at 7300 yuan/ton at the beginning of September and 7190 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 1.51% decrease compared to the same period last month. The overall price in September was weak and downward, with a low focus of negotiations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton, with downstream restocking as needed being the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average and stable operation is the main focus.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.49% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 33.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in September. On September 28th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 161000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.33% compared to the average price of 210000 yuan/ton on September 1st. On September 28th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 175000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.88% compared to the average price of 224000 yuan/ton on September 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline in September. In terms of supply, the production output of lithium salt factories did not fluctuate significantly in early September, and there was sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. Subsequently, there was news that a major factory in Qinghai Salt Lake was about to release goods, resulting in an increase in market supply, which put some pressure on the current spot market with sufficient goods.

In late September, due to environmental inspections, mica mining was restricted in the Jiangxi region, resulting in a narrowing of profit margins for some Jiangxi lithium salt factories and a phenomenon of production stoppage and reduction. However, some large lithium salt manufacturers have also released products at low prices, resulting in an increase in the circulation of lithium carbonate in the market. As the price of lithium salts continues to decline towards the end of the month, some manufacturers’ prices and costs have been reversed, and some companies have become increasingly pro priced.

In terms of demand, in early September, the upstream and downstream industries in the lithium carbonate market held a wait-and-see attitude towards lithium salt prices. The recovery of downstream demand was poor, and although there were frequent inquiries, both procurement and actual transactions were relatively light. Delayed delivery and negotiation of orders often occurred. In addition, in the context of low downstream purchasing willingness, there is an expectation of incremental lithium carbonate, which has led to a retreat in the procurement demand of some downstream enterprises. In an atmosphere of buying up rather than falling, more purchases are made on demand.

In late September, both supply and demand in the spot market were weak, and downstream demand expectations were relatively pessimistic, with no obvious signs of improvement in the short term. Buying demand was weak, and transactions were light. With the state of downstream bargain hunting, the focus of market transactions shifted downward. The end of the month is approaching the National Day Mid Autumn Golden Week, but based on the current downstream pre holiday stocking situation, there are many market inquiries and price pressures, and purchasing intentions are weak. There are few large-scale transactions. As some lithium salt factories and downstream negotiations fall into a stalemate, the market price decline has narrowed.

The market price of lithium hydroxide has decreased. In the first half of September, the upstream spodumene concentrate price fell, and the lithium carbonate market operated weakly, with weakened cost support. Production enterprises mainly focused on long-term orders, while downstream demand was light. Inquiries and purchases needed to be cautious, and individual transactions were limited. Under the dual drag of cost and demand, the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has declined. In the second half of the month, cost support remains weak, downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, market trading atmosphere is light, and the lithium hydroxide market continues to operate weakly.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and declining. In September, the demand for lithium iron phosphate was lower than expected, and the entire industry chain has high inventory, causing prices to continue to decline. The number of enterprise orders has decreased, and the overall industry growth rate has slowed down. From the long-term trend of the demand side, the market’s demand for positive electrode materials has improved, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate will gradually recover.

In terms of futures, on September 28th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 150000 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 152500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.11%, with 197300 transactions and 60869 positions.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the upcoming Mid Autumn and National Day holidays have resulted in weaker purchasing willingness in downstream markets, with the market mainly relying on wait-and-see behavior. With the continuous bottoming out of lithium carbonate prices, many lithium salt factories have started to reduce and stop production, which will alleviate the supply of lithium carbonate in the future. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain weak and volatile in the short term.