According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5933.33 yuan/ton. This week, the white carbon black market price remained stable, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of white carbon black in the market remained stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was flat, and downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs, with average demand and weak stocking enthusiasm. Manufacturers mainly offered discounts and took orders, and the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical index: On December 14th, the chemical index was 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market will mainly operate steadily, with mainstream prices around 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from December 1st to 8th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9406 yuan/ton to 9325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% during the cycle, with a month on month decrease of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. The raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and Sinopec has listed a reduction to 6800 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. Downstream demand is weak, and the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak and downward, resulting in a lower focus on transactions.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has experienced a significant decline, while crude oil has continued to decline widely, suppressing a bearish market sentiment. As of December 8th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6700.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 61.94%, which is -0.71% higher than last week. The weekly production is 93900 tons, which is+0.12 million tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market continues to decline, with upstream pure benzene prices continuing to weaken in recent times. The main listing has been continuously lowered, forming a negative impact on the cost side. Downstream polymerization factories lack confidence, and the pace of raw material procurement has slowed down. In addition, with some devices returning to normal, the tight supply situation in the early stage has been alleviated, and the market trading price center is gradually decreasing. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is weakly consolidated, with a lack of cost support, and downstream demand for cyclohexanone is empty. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of titanium dioxide remained stable this week, with an average price of 16650 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market prices are basically stable. Foreign export orders have increased, and the export market remains good. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased by $100 per ton since January 1, 2024. The trading situation in the domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, the market situation is weak, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, making orders more cautious. The raw material market is at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. They have delivered more early orders, but new transactions are limited. The market is under pressure, and overall stability is the main focus. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, according to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has slightly increased. At present, the overall trading volume in the market is still acceptable, and spot prices are slightly tight. The procurement situation of downstream titanium dioxide is average, and the overall market tends to be strong, with consolidation and operation. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is around 1480-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the transaction volume in the titanium concentrate market is still good, and the overall market is operating steadily. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, as of December 11th, the reference price for sulfuric acid is 282 yuan/ton, according to monitoring of bulk commodity data. Compared to December 4th (292 yuan/ton), the price has dropped by 3.42%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a slight decline, weakening cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has recently stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the current export situation of titanium dioxide market is good, while the domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively weak. The raw material titanium concentrate market has slightly increased, with sulfuric acid prices falling and raw material support being average. Overall, the market situation is light, with poor trading, and most companies are mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% from the beginning of the week’s price of 4000 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.54%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market has remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the downstream procurement situation is still good. The price of ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the procurement of domestic downstream civil explosives industry is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation price in Shaanxi region is 5100-5200 yuan/ton, in Shandong region it is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei region it is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 2300 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 2.22% compared to the price of 2250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2400 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2300 yuan/ton. At present, there is not much change in the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market, and the cost trend is rising. The supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market transaction situation is average, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The price trend of nitric acid in the market is rising, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia has risen this week, with a price of 4056.67 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 5.0% from the initial price of 3863.33 yuan/ton. The main production areas in the north are mainly affected by price increases. Environmental protection in Shandong has affected the start of construction, and some urea plants in Hebei have reduced production. Coupled with temporary failures in some plants in Shanxi, the market has shown a tightening of supply. Large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei have generally raised prices, and dealer quotes have followed suit. In addition, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly improved, and both supply and demand are favorable for the domestic ammonia market. Currently, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not changed much due to this impact.

Recently, the procurement in the downstream civil explosive industry has been relatively normal, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is still acceptable. In addition, the upstream liquid ammonia price trend is rising, but there is a downward trend in nitric acid prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to a stable price trend in the ammonium nitrate market, which is believed by analysts from Business Society.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of toluene has recently stabilized narrowly from 11.20 to 11.29. On November 29th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6680 yuan/ton, while on November 20th, the benchmark price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%.

The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and the cost support for toluene is weak

Recently (11.20-11.29), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of November 219, the WTI01 contract closed at $77.70 per barrel and settled at $77.86 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $82.68 per barrel and settled at $81.47 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

PX starts stable toluene production and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX external prices have been mainly affected by this. As of the 23rd, the closing prices in the Asian region are 984-986 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1009-1011 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The external market price has decreased, and the inventory of toluene at ports has significantly increased

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has fallen. As of November 29, December, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 814-816 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of November 23, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 7.2%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 43000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons, a significant increase overall compared to mid November.

Market forecast: Currently, the international crude oil price range is fluctuating, and the cost support for toluene is weak; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.

Stable operation of ethylene glycol in November

According to data from Business Society, on November 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4000 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4250 yuan/ton to the outside world.

On November 29th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China was 477 US dollars/ton; The CIF price in Southeast Asia is $485 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Downstream demand

The operating load of downstream polyester is relatively stable. On November 27th, the polyester operating rate was 88.72%, and the polyester factory load remained around 88%. On the terminal side, the operating load of the weaving machine is 85%, and the operating load of the elastic weaving machine is 91%. Both have increased compared to the previous period, mainly due to weather factors, which have led to an increase in demand for cold and warm orders.

High port inventory

As of November 27, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1476 million tons, which is 1.0548 million tons higher than the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 23, an increase of 92800 tons. The port inventory is still relatively high.

Future market forecast

At the end of the month, market sentiment began to improve, partly due to news of the shutdown of North American facilities, and also due to the stabilization of oil prices, which began to rebound, and the strengthening of cost support expectations. However, the reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, which suppresses the upward space for prices. Fortunately, the current price is low, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will maintain a strong trend of bottoming out in the short term. In December, ethylene glycol prices are expected to slightly rebound.

Silver outperformed gold in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on November 30, 2023 was 474.61 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.46% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (November 1), which was 476.80 yuan/gram.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average silver market price on November 30, 2023 was 6110.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 6.16% compared to the average silver market price of 5756 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (November 1).

Overview of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

Comparison of price trends of precious metals such as gold and silver in the past year

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold.

Silver outperformed gold in November, mainly due to strong physical demand for silver:

On the demand side, based on the current strong performance of the photovoltaic sector and the expectation of continuous improvement in the future, the demand outlook for silver in this sector is significantly stronger, and the global demand for silver industry is expected to increase in 2023. Although the total demand is not as high as last year, industrial demand is strong. In 2023, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will approach 400GW for the first time, and silver demand in various aspects such as photovoltaic cell production, automotive electrification, 5G network investment, and ethylene oxide catalyst manufacturing will show an increasing trend.

On the supply side, during the second to third quarters, the Pe ñ asquito mine suspended production due to a strike, which affected Mexico’s silver production. Although the increase in silver production in mines in Bolivia and Chile has to some extent offset the decline in production in Mexico. However, the overall production of mineral silver in 2023 is still declining, and the increment of silver mining is very limited after 2025. Currently, silver inventory continues to decrease.

In terms of imports and exports, India’s performance in October was impressive, with India’s silver imports reaching 1829 tons in October, setting a new high in monthly imports since 2013.

Future Market Forecast

1. Inflation falls and expectations of interest rate hikes weaken. Precious metals have positive expectations

According to CME’s Federal Reserve Observation, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25% -5.50% range in December is 96.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 3.2%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by February next year is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 10.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 0.3%

On Tuesday evening, two Federal Reserve officials rarely talked about the issue of interest rate cuts in their speeches. Federal Reserve Director Bowman stated that if progress is made in reducing inflation, interest rate cuts can begin in a few more months; The 23rd Federal Reserve vote committee, Chicago Fed’s Goolsby, also hinted this morning that interest rates need to be lowered. The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 24 years has increased, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged within the year has increased. Inflation expectations and US bond rates have significantly weakened, which has also to some extent boosted precious metal prices.

2. Strong physical demand supports high prices

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after reaching a new decade high in the early stage. Under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes we anticipated earlier, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices. The industrial demand for silver also supports prices to remain high.

In summary, the recent expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates for 24 years has increased, and strong physical demand has boosted precious metal prices. In November, the US dollar index fell more than 3% from its high level, while the appreciation of the Chinese yuan at its low level was less than 3%. Overall, the US dollar index drove the passive appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which will definitely suppress the valuation of precious metals in the Chinese yuan. However, silver currency has weak attributes, good price elasticity, and is less affected by exchange rates. The overall price increase of silver is stronger than that of precious metal gold, and it is expected that precious metals will operate stronger in the short term.

The domestic phenol market fluctuated in November. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market was quoted at 8150 yuan/ton on November 1st, and on November 30th, the market was quoted at 8157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09%.

The quotations for phenol in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region/ Price on November 1st/ Price on November 30th/ Rise and fall range

East China region/ 7900./7950./50

Shandong region/ 8200./8100./-100

The surrounding areas of Yanshan/ 8200./8100./-100

South China region/ 8250./8250./0

At the beginning of the month, the phenol market was significantly affected by the drop in raw material pure benzene prices, and the focus of negotiations fell below 8000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, domestic trade sources arrived in Hong Kong to supplement, and the market continued to be sluggish in the first half of the month under supply pressure.

In the middle of the month, port inventories have declined and imported goods have not been replenished. Traders have a positive attitude towards pushing up prices. As the market continues to rise, mainstream factories across the country have raised their listing prices, and the market has been significantly boosted by downstream large players bidding. As market prices rise, downstream demand has followed suit, and phenolic ketone enterprises have continuously reported parking plans. The tight situation of goods has become prominent, and the market’s focus has remained strong at a high level.

Fundamentals: In November, there was intensive equipment maintenance, involving a total of 10 units with a production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year. The production has significantly declined.

In terms of downstream demand, rigid demand is the main focus. The tightening of supply and fluctuations in cost are the main reasons affecting this wave of phenol market. The downstream bisphenol A market has slightly increased, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from 10050 to 10100 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of Business Society, multiple sets of phenolic ketone units were still under maintenance in December, with little supply pressure, which was beneficial to the market. However, the terminal faced cost pressure or small orders, and downstream enterprises suffered losses in profits. It is expected to remain strong and stable in December, but there are also downward risks, with a focus on the production of new devices.

This week (11.20-11.29), the market for dichloromethane fluctuated and rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of November 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2527 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.48% from 2442 yuan/ton on the 20th. The low point during the cycle was 2410 yuan/ton, and the high point was 2550 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost center of dichloromethane has shifted downwards; Downstream and terminal customers should be cautious when purchasing goods. Enterprises in Shandong region generally have low inventory pressure when shipping, while enterprises in East China and other regions have low inventory pressure when shipping dichloromethane. Some domestic enterprises have lowered the factory price of dichloromethane, and as of November 21, the mainstream bulk water factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2350-2500 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.29), the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose.

This week (11.20-11.29), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine slightly decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from 2450 yuan/ton on the 20th. As of November 29th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 400 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous period.

The overall supply of methane chloride in China is loose, and after a significant reduction in the factory price of dichloromethane, terminal inquiries in Shandong region have increased. However, currently, the shipping speed of enterprises has significantly weakened, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market has once again weakened. Some enterprises have lowered their factory prices.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the overall demand for dichloromethane is weak, and the supply side is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices still provide cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

This week (11.20-11.27), the market for butadiene rubber was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 27th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from last Monday’s 12370 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of butadiene rubber. Downstream tire factories have slightly increased their production compared to mid November, and demand has improved in the face of support for butadiene rubber. On the 27th, some merchants reported a slight increase in prices, but the supply of butadiene rubber is relatively loose, and the overall market for butadiene rubber is still weak. As of November 27th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised its price by 12000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Shunding rubber market in eastern China, such as Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Yanshan, and Qilu, are reported at 11900-12500 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11600-11800 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.27), the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating with narrow fluctuations, and the Qixiang Tengda butadiene plant operated with reduced load; The Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in December.

This week (11.20-11.27), the price of butadiene stabilized at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 27th, the price of butadiene was at 9538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% from last Monday’s 9541 yuan/ton, and the lowest point in the cycle was 9493 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.27), the natural rubber market slightly declined and the price difference of butadiene rubber slightly narrowed, but the impact on butadiene rubber is still more significant. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the price was 12940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from last Monday’s 13150 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Starting from November 20th to November 27th this week, all steel tires slightly increased, providing some support for rubber production. But currently, the demand for tires is gradually entering the off-season at the end of the year, and tire companies are gradually accumulating inventory. The expectation of tire production in the later stage will decrease, and the impact on rubber is biased. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices will continue to support the cost side of butadiene rubber, and the demand side is expected to weaken in the off-season. However, Maoming Petrochemical has a parking and maintenance plan in the later stage, and the supply side of butadiene rubber is also expected to decline. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.