Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, domestic vitamin C was weak and stable this week. The average price of food grade vitamin C was 48.67 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic vitamin C market is weak and runs smoothly. At present, the mainstream price of food grade is 46-48 yuan / kg, and that of feed grade is 43-44 yuan / kg. The overall market situation is general, the price is obviously stable and secretly falling, the maintenance of some production enterprises is not completed, the report is suspended, the traders take the goods actively, and there is room for negotiation on the actual transaction price.

Upstream: the price of corn fell, corn successively entered the market in early spring, the main body of grain storage trade was reluctant to sell at a high price, and the overall cash out intention continued to increase. The tight supply situation in the domestic corn market was alleviated, and ports and deep-processing enterprises successively reduced the purchase price of corn.

The high price of vitamin A was corrected this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was 296 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 295 yuan / kg at the weekend, a decrease of 0.56%. The downstream demand for vitamin A is weak. After the last rise, the downstream resistance is obvious, resulting in the purchase intention is not obvious. In order to ship the goods smoothly, the market price is callback.

The market performance of vitamin E was strong this week, with a slight increase. The average price at the beginning of the week was 75 yuan / kg, and the average price at the weekend was 76 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.87%. It is understood that Zhejiang Pharmaceutical Changhai biological industrial park has maintained maintenance for 45 days since July 25. At the same time, foreign enterprises also rumored that there was a maintenance plan in September. The downstream demand is stable. Affected by maintenance, the factory has a strong willingness to support the price, and the market is stable and strong.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that: Generally speaking, the overall market of vitamins is general, and the market weakness is difficult to change. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises. The short-term market weakness of VA and VE is difficult to change.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on September 10 was 12133.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 12133.33 at the beginning of the week. The price rose or fell by 0% during the week and fell by 1.36% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the hiips market is up after falling, the price is fine tuned, and the market is generally stable. At the beginning of the week, the hips market decreased slightly, and the downstream purchase was negative. Near the weekend, driven by the rise of raw material prices, the hips market stopped falling and rebounded, and the market trading was still tepid. This week, the raw material styrene market rebounded strongly, but subject to weak demand, the market is mostly glued, the price fluctuation is less obvious, and the transparent benzene market continues to be stable. Up to now, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 11700-14800 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly about 10600-11000 yuan / ton. The overall market is running stably temporarily.

In the international crude oil market, on September 10, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $69.72/barrel, up US $1.58 or 2.3%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $72.92/barrel, up US $1.47 or 2.1%. The hurricane led to the decline of oil and gas supply in the Gulf of Mexico. At present, it will take some time to recover. The tight supply in the United States led to the rise of oil prices.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil has no clear direction, pure benzene tracks the price trend of styrene, and the cost support has weakened. The fundamentals of styrene itself are weak, the supply increases slightly, and the demand will continue the weak situation in the off-season without obvious increase. It is expected that the price of styrene will show a weak shock after correction in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

The business society believes that the current strong rebound in raw material prices, coupled with the favorable supply side, the hips market rebounded and rose, but the demand follow-up is general, so some increases are restrained. It is expected that the hips market will rise steadily in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 276.67 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 4.60% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid market was temporarily stable this week, and the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 72.81 on September 10.

The upstream support is general and the downstream procurement is weak

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in the hydrochloric acid market this week is temporarily stable and the overall market is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily; The quotation of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market of downstream ammonium chloride is high, and the downstream purchase intention is not strong. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to a slight shock in the near future.

The lead market (9.3-9.10) fluctuated upward this week. The average price of the domestic market was 14933.33 yuan / ton last weekend and 15066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.89%.

On September 11, the lead commodity index was 91.70, the same as yesterday, down 31.57% from the highest point of 134.01 in the cycle (November 29, 2016), and up 22.87% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Lun lead showed a “V” trend as a whole this week, fluctuating between us $2250-2310 / ton. At the beginning of the week, driven by the decline of the US dollar index, the metal market generally strengthened. After that, the US dollar index stopped falling and rebounded, and Lun lead was under pressure. At the end of the week, Lun lead hit the bottom and rebounded again driven by the decline of the US dollar index. In terms of inventory, LME inventory is still low. The trend of Shanghai lead was consistent with that of Lun lead, which fell to a low in nearly half a year in the middle of the week.

The spot market basically followed the trend of the futures market this week. The “V” shaped shock trend was the main trend. The social inventory of lead ingots was still on the high side as a whole. The start-up of the smelter remained basically unchanged this week and remained dominated by long-term single customers. The inventory in the plant was normal and the performance of individual orders was poor. The procurement of downstream storage enterprises is limited, and the whole is still not prosperous in the peak season. In terms of recycled lead, due to the strict investigation of environmental protection, the recent commencement is limited.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metal silicon (7.94%), nickel (4.93%) and aluminum (4.64%). There were three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products were gold (- 1.53%), silver (- 0.55%) and cobalt (- 0.35%). Both rose or fell by 1.4% this week.

At present, most downstream purchases are based on demand. Under the environment of no improvement in downstream consumption and high social inventory of lead ingots, it is expected that the price of lead ingots will still fluctuate. Near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, some downstream manufacturers may have stock preparation plans, and the transaction situation may pick up to a certain extent.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 10, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.23% compared with Monday’s price, a decrease of 3.14% compared with August 10 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 17000 yuan / ton), and a year-on-year increase of 16.78% in a three-month cycle.

Propylene oxide market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 15900-16000 yuan / ton. The factory inventory was pressureless, the shipment was smooth, the market quotation was very good, and the new orders in the downstream were general. It just needed passive follow-up, and the price rose slightly. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16200-16300 yuan / ton.

In terms of index, the propylene oxide commodity index on September 9 was 102.07, up 0.41 points from yesterday, down 18.41% from the highest point of 125.10 points in the cycle (2021-03-28), and up 144.77% from the lowest point of 41.70 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

For upstream propylene, according to the price chart of business society, the propylene price stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of the weekend, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7650-7700 yuan / ton, up from 50-100 yuan / ton last week. In terms of the market, the delivery of goods by enterprises is stable, and the downstream gas purchase is OK, but the upstream crude oil price is under pressure, the long short game in the propylene market, and the price increases slightly.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene glycol on September 9 was 17900.00, an increase of 4.88% compared with September 1 (17066.67); The downstream soft foam polyether market was shaken and sorted out in Shandong on September 10, and the mainstream market quotation was around 16000-16200 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, in a comprehensive view, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, the cost impact is limited, the factory is still not under pressure, and there is still support at the supply end. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be dominated by strong operation in the short term, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on September 3, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week and the beginning of the month, with a price increase of 2.33% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market has been advancing steadily this week, and the price has basically not changed. Most enterprises adjust the price in a narrow range according to their own shipment, with a fluctuation of about 200 yuan / ton. The overall market has been advancing steadily. During the week, the price of raw phenol remained stable, and the supply and demand side was relatively stable. Most enterprises’ devices were fully opened and shipped at a stable price. Shandong Longxin was in the state of maintenance consumption inventory in the early stage and is gradually recovering. At present, the operation is at a medium level and the shipment is good. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises was mostly in the range of 13000-15500 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade was mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade was mostly in the range of 17200-20000 yuan / ton. There was no obvious fluctuation in the price.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol Market is at a high and stable level, which coincides with the end of the month, the downstream participation is not high, and it just needs to follow up. However, at present, there is little pressure on the cargo holders. In addition, the expected import volume in September is reduced and the domestic factories have maintenance plans. The cargo holders mainly make firm offers, and the market focus is large, stable and small, but the actual orders are flat.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that at present, the supply and demand side is relatively stable, the raw material price increases slightly, and some salicylic acid enterprises may have the operation of increasing, but the overall impact on the market is limited. It is expected that the market will continue to be stable and small in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased this week, from 2450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2486.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.50%, an increase of 45.53% year-on-year over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 115.66 on September 3.

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2470 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea will not be quoted this week, but it is actually discussed, and the overall rise; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 5910.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6026.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.97%, a year-on-year increase of 151.81% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1111.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1157.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.16%, a year-on-year increase of 108.28% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, a year-on-year increase of 31.13% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose this week, from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.35%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle and early September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline stabilized after falling this week. On August 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10900-11100 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton. The price increased by 39.24% over the beginning of the year and 145.11% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene continued to rise this week. On Sunday (September 5), the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan / ton (the average price was 7700 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 140 yuan / ton, or 1.85%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 125.81%.

Nitric acid continued to decline this week. On Friday (September 3), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3030 yuan / ton, down 3.19% from last week and up 102% from the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the downstream operating rate decreased and the demand for aniline decreased; The aniline plant was restarted, the load increased and the on-site supply increased. After the decline of aniline during the week, the weakness stabilized, and the rise of pure benzene gave some bottom support.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, in September, new units in the downstream industry of pure benzene were put into operation, and the demand is expected to increase, which is good for the market mentality. Pure benzene is expected to continue to rise.

Although there is some support on the cost side, the downstream demand support is weak, and it is expected that aniline oil may fall. Entering the “golden nine silver ten”, the demand for downstream rubber additives may pick up, which is expected to bring good results. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market was upward in early September, and the spot price rose slightly. As of September 3, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 18150 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.69% over the average price at the beginning of the week and 21.81% over the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: the recent decline in international oil prices has warmed up, and pure benzene has shown a steady rise. The cost support of styrene was greatly affected by its direct raw material pure benzene, and the spot price was pushed up. However, there is little demand follow-up, the market resistance point is clear, and the industry has a bearish attitude towards the future market.

The price of acrylonitrile was strong this week. Previously, the maintenance output has recently restarted, the market supply has rebounded, the positive effect on the supply side has weakened, and the actual orders of traders have decreased secretly.

The domestic butadiene market continued to be weak this week. It is reported that there is news about the start-up and production of new units in the industry. At present, there is an expectation of supply increment in the field, and the decrease in demand caused by the reduction of downstream enterprises. The contradiction between supply and demand on the floor increased, the spot price pressure was large, and the support for ABS was weakened.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was hard to say. Last month, the operating rate of the industry was almost full. Recently, the maintenance and parking plans of some enterprises have been announced, and the on-site supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that the good supply side will gradually release the good spot price next week. At the same time, the traditional peak season is at hand, and there are goods preparation expectations in the downstream. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, users have a strong resistance to high price sources, and there is no large number of goods preparation operations.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS was strong in early September, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed less to ABS. The industry load is expected to decline at a high level. At present, in the traditional peak season, the demand volume expectation is superimposed on the good of the tightening of the supply side. Although there are few on-site transactions and the mentality is contradictory, the ABS is good and stable. It is expected that the ABS spot market may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 563 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton or 2.42% compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 550 yuan / ton).

In early August, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole operated stably at a high level, the mining operation rate was low, the spot supply of medium and high-end phosphorus ore was tight, and most orders were from old customers. In late August, on the 16th, the domestic phosphate ore market closed to the high end again. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the price of medium and high-end phosphate rock again, by about 10-30 yuan / ton. The price of 30% phosphate rock freight plant is near 510-550 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% phosphate rock freight plant is near 470-490 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the domestic phosphate ore market continued to operate at a high level. As of August 31, the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship board in Hubei was around 560-580 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore of mining enterprises in Hebei is 650 yuan / ton. The quotation of 8% grade phosphate rock freight plant of mining enterprises in Guangxi is 490 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 510-550 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 470-490 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 570 yuan / ton Ship board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 500-560 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 460-490 yuan / ton Factory price

Downstream yellow phosphorus, affected by power rationing in Yunnan in July, the price of yellow phosphorus rose too fast, and the quotation was about 28000-30000 yuan / ton. The downstream has limited acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus began to decline in early August. In the second week of August, the price of yellow phosphorus fell to about 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and then the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable. In the last week of August, yellow phosphorus production decreased slightly compared with last week. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and some manufacturers temporarily stop external quotation. The shortage of yellow phosphorus spot has intensified, and the price of yellow phosphorus has risen rapidly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 27000-28000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 28000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 27000-28000 yuan / ton. Downstream appropriate procurement, on-site spot is still tight, market confidence is good, and the price of yellow phosphorus is high.

For downstream phosphoric acid, in August, the price of phosphoric acid market continued to rise due to cost support. The price fluctuation was concentrated in the second half of the month, with an increase of more than 10% in just a few days. In the first week, with the price of raw yellow phosphorus as low as 24000 yuan / ton, the cost support fell, the quotation enterprises gradually increased, and the market remained stable as a whole, but some enterprises reduced slightly. In the second week, the phosphoric acid market still operated slowly and steadily, followed the market and adjusted the price in a narrow range. In the third week, the raw materials tended to be stable, but there were bullish expectations. The phosphoric acid market waited carefully for the market to reflect, and there were few low prices. From the fourth week to the end of the month, the output of raw materials decreased, the supply of goods tightened, the price rose sharply to 28000 yuan / ton, and orders were received in limited quantities, the cost was under pressure, the commencement of phosphoric acid enterprises declined, the on-site supply tightened, and the market price rose rapidly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Jiangsu is 7400-7500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 7800-8400 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is about 8000-8100 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is 7400-8500 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has increased sharply.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall supply of the mine continues to be tight. Individual Guizhou mining enterprises do not quote for the time being, only receive orders from old customers, and the upstream Yellow Phosphorus market also gives market support. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, China’s phosphorus ore market will focus on high-level consolidation and operation.