Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, in early December, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of December 13, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15700 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.79% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of domestic styrene was slightly explored last week. Crude oil consolidation, pure benzene temporary stable consolidation, the cost side gives styrene bottom support, which can not provide rising power. In Zhenhai area, the industry affected by the epidemic and its upstream and downstream, the overall impact is empty. In addition, it is expected that new units will be put into operation. On the whole, the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week.

The price of acrylonitrile rose last week, and the upstream raw material market was consolidated after falling. The increase of on-site supply was not as expected, and the supply of goods in some regions was tight. However, with the further release of the early supply increment, the future market may restrict the rise of the market.

In terms of butadiene, the domestic spot supply is abundant and the inventory is relatively high. At the same time, the poor transaction dragged the external market into a decline, increasing the downward pressure on the domestic market. It is difficult to find obvious good news on the supply side of domestic and foreign markets. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market fell, the butadiene fundamentals continued to be short, and the spot price was at an annual low.

The overall upstream market of ABS is weak, and the cost side support of ABS is general. In terms of operating rate, in the early stage, there was the landing of new production capacity of polymerization plant. Recently, there were public health events in Zhejiang, which affected the load of some enterprises. The shutdown and maintenance equipment and resumption of production capacity showed each other, and the overall supply was expected to decrease. However, the on-site supply of goods is sufficient, and the superimposed double limit and other environmental protection policies still have an impact on the market. The on-site demand is weak, the merchant shipping pressure is increased, and the goods are passively reduced.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early December, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was weak, which weakened the assistance to ABS. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the gradual weakening of demand and the reduction of market momentum. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices were flat this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week. As of December 13, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 14366.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 14366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (December 6); the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and adjusted this week

 
According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid was flat and stable this week. As of December 13, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton, Compared with the price of 12720 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (December 6), the price of hydrofluoric acid is flat; the high level of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable; recently, the high level of downstream refrigerant market has fallen, the market of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is still under increasing downward pressure.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose at a high level this week, the market of fluorite rose this week, and the price of fluorite rose by 0.58% this week; The price of fluorite rises slightly, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is general.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week, the price of fluorite is rising, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum is increased. The high price range of aluminum ingots in the downstream was adjusted by shock, and aluminum fluoride was mainly needed. The price of aluminum fluoride is expected to be strong and stable in the future.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. As of the 10th, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4120 yuan / ton, up 2.49% from the price of 4020 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 45.07% year-on-year.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend declined, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably, the supply of goods in the field was sufficient recently, the delivery of goods in the field was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the coal price in the upstream of the terminal fell, the nitric acid price trend declined, and the affected price of ammonium nitrate fell. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Recently, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is poor. However, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is in the peak sales season. The demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal. Affected by raw materials, the market price of ammonium nitrate has declined. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4200-4300 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4200-4300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose slightly this week. As of the 10th, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2366.67 yuan / ton, 0.71% higher than the price of 2350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2150 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is in the morning, and the delivery of goods in the field is general. Recently, the price trend of nitric acid in the field has increased slightly, the price rise of raw nitric acid is good for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has increased.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the 10th day, the price of liquid ammonia was 4410 yuan / ton, down 4.75% from 4630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the on-site supply and demand is still weak. Affected by some reduction, the price trend is still weak. The market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong has fallen, and the quotations of most manufacturers have decreased slightly. The manufacturers have a strong price mentality. The dealers’ offers are mainly based on the market, the manufacturers’ shipment efforts are strengthened, and the market inventory pressure is slightly relieved compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 3950-4150 yuan / ton. Most manufacturers in Hebei reduced their prices in the first three working days of this week, which has entered a phased bottom. The manufacturers have a price support mentality, the dealers stopped the decline, and most of them are flat. There is still a certain inventory pressure in the market. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the mainstream price is 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has increased slightly.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is acceptable. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, and the market price trend of liquid ammonia drops. However, the price trend of nitric acid is relatively stable, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7528 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7505 yuan / ton, down 0.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene (Shandong) prices rose slightly at the beginning of the week, but the rise was weak, and the price began to fall again. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7500-7550 yuan / ton. This week, it was repaired after the sharp drop in upstream oil prices, providing support for the rise of propylene. However, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken. When the supply of propylene market was sufficient and the downstream demand support was insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand still existed, resulting in the downward main tone of the market as a whole.

Upstream: after the sharp drop of crude oil, it will be repaired soon. Although the price rose this week, it is still below the price before the sharp drop. Due to limited terminal demand, the price of methanol continues to decline weakly, and the price of liquefied gas has been boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil, with small rise and fall this week. On the whole, raw material support is limited, and propylene is weak and difficult to change.

Downstream: downstream products continue to decline. It can be seen that downstream products continue to be weak, the construction is generally started, the enthusiasm for propylene procurement is not high, and the price is difficult to push up under the guidance of the buyer.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that the overall market of propylene market is dominated by bad conditions. In the future, with the eagerness of enterprises to take goods and the impact of low-cost sources, it is expected that the price of propylene will continue to fluctuate and decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, soda ash prices are weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 3387.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was about 3200 yuan / ton, down 5.54% and up 110.25% over the same period last year. On December 2, the commodity index of light soda ash was 164.10, down 5.77 points from yesterday, down 13.22% from the highest point of 189.10 points in the cycle (2021-11-07), and up 159.86% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 3200-3400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 3300-3500 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week was 81.91%, up 6.82% month on month. During the week, the output of soda ash was 582900 tons, an increase of 48500 tons. The unit was started and resumed within the week, and the output increased.

Demand: glass prices rose this week, with an average market price of 24.73 yuan / m2 at the beginning of the week and 25.08 yuan / m2 at the weekend, with a price increase of 1.42%. This week, most manufacturers in Shahe market sold well, inventory decreased, processing plants prepared goods appropriately, the price was stable, and the market price of some brands and specifications increased slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (2.60%), PVC (1.52%), hydrochloric acid (0.65%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 5.61%) and light soda (- 2.12%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.59%.

Business analysts believe that soda ash inventory increases and the market atmosphere is general. Downstream glass prices rose slightly, mainly on-demand procurement, with strong wait-and-see mood. He is resistant to high priced soda ash. The inventory of the enterprise increases, the downstream procurement is general, and it is comprehensively expected that the soda ash is weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda decreased. The market price in Shandong was 860 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average market price in Shandong was 802.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price decreased by 6.69%, and the price increased by 63.78% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices fell this week. At present, the liquid alkali shows a downward trend, which is mainly due to the sufficient liquid alkali inventory of the main alumina plant in Shandong, the main production area, and the general shipment of enterprises. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 750-850 yuan / ton. The purchase price of liquid alkali was lowered in the alumina market, and the price of liquid alkali was lowered due to insufficient downstream support.

Downstream: the spot quotation of alumina has fallen, and the downstream support is insufficient. At present, alumina enterprises generally purchase caustic soda and constantly exert pressure on caustic soda. The demand for alumina is general, and the shipment of caustic soda enterprises is general.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (2.60%), PVC (1.52%), hydrochloric acid (0.65%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 5.61%) and light soda (- 2.12%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.59%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the overall transaction of caustic soda is weak, the alumina downstream of caustic soda is mainly purchased on demand, the shipment of caustic soda is general, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell by a wide margin this week. On November 28, the price of pure benzene was 6400-6750 yuan / ton (average price 6650 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (December 5), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (average price 6310 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 340 yuan / ton, or 5.11%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 44.2%.

2、 Analysis and review

Affected by the newly discovered new crown variant strain, crude oil prices continued to fall, lack of confidence in the external market, and prices fell. The price of crude oil and styrene fell, and the price of pure benzene continued to fall this week. Due to inventory pressure in Shandong, prices have been lowered continuously, and the price difference between East China and Shandong has widened. During the week, low-cost goods from Shandong flowed into East China, which suppressed the market atmosphere in East China, and the market as a whole was weak. This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 250 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton (the second adjustment in North China, a total of 550 yuan / ton).

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene fell in the external trading this week. On Friday (December 3), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $876 / ton, which was flat month on month (MOM) on November 26; The reference import price in East China was US $885 / T, down US $15 / T or 1.67% month on month on November 26.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. Last week, a new variant of COVID-19, which was discovered in South Africa and other countries, triggered a sell-off of financial assets, exacerbating concerns about oil demand and oil prices. The OPEC + meeting within the week decided to maintain the original production increase plan and boost oil prices. Brent fell $2.84 / barrel, or 3.91% this week; WTI fell $1.89/barrel, or 2.77%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rebounded after falling this week. The price of sample enterprises was 8300 yuan / ton on November 26 and 7975 yuan / ton on December 3, down 3.92% from last week and 3.33% from the same period last year. Spot bargain hunting and replenishment remained, the source of tradable goods decreased, some goods were sold at low prices, and the styrene market rebounded

Aniline: aniline stabilized after falling this week. On December 3, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-10300 yuan / ton, down 16.82% from last week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year and up 20.7% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on crude oil and economy. OPEC + maintains the original planned increase in production or continues to boost oil prices. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate in the short term and there is room for rebound. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product, may rebound after a continuous decline in the short term, but the overall demand is still weak.

There are still ships arriving at subsequent ports, and the inventory continues to increase; Bargain hunting in the downstream and the market atmosphere picked up; Crude oil and styrene fluctuated steadily. Overall, it is expected that the consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week. Pay attention to the downstream market, plant dynamics, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. By the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6987.5 yuan / ton, down 2.95% compared with the price of 7200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 2.44% year-on-year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride fell, the downstream plasticizer market was poor, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride fell.

The market price of phthalic anhydride continued to fall this week, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the downstream DOP market fell this week, the price trend of orthobenzene fell, the plasticizer market was poor, bad factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the price of phthalic anhydride in the field has declined, the downstream plasticizer industry has a poor market, and the actual transaction has dropped. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China is declining, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6800-7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6700-6800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market still exists. The downstream purchase is mainly on demand, the downstream DOP market is weak, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

This week, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene declined, with the on-site price of 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from the price of 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The change of domestic orthobenzene price is the negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area has declined, the external quotation of orthobenzene has declined, the recent inventory of orthobenzene in the port area is OK, and the external quotation of orthobenzene has mainly declined. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, According to the detailed discussion of the actual order, the price trend of phthalic anhydride fell, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell, which was bad for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price, coupled with poor demand, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride fell.

The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride declined this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 10850 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with a price decline of 5.86%. The construction of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the DOP supply was sufficient, the PVC price fluctuated and weakened, the downstream demand was general, and the market transaction was cold. Plasticizer DOP market has weakened rising power and increased downward pressure. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is 10400-10900 yuan / ton. In the future, the downward pressure of DOP market has increased, the rising power has weakened, the downstream demand is poor, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined.

On the whole, the recent decline in crude oil prices, coupled with the weak market in the downstream plasticizer industry, has led to a sharp decline in the price trend of phthalic anhydride. However, the market demand for phthalic anhydride is poor, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may decline slightly in the later stage.

From November 26 to December 3, 2021, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased significantly, from 5531 yuan / ton last weekend to 4911 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 11.21%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

October 8, 8000., + 300

October 11, 8400., + 400

October 26, 8100. – 300

October 28, 7600. – 500

November 16, 7400. – 200

November 18, 7000. – 400

November 26, 6700. – 300

November 29, 6450. – 250

On November 29, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 6400 yuan / ton. Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 6200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 6450 yuan / ton, and Jincheng Petrochemical offers 6150 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 6103 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 6150 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 6250 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on December 2, international oil prices rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $66.50/barrel, up US $0.93 or 1.4%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $69.67/barrel, up US $0.80 or 1.2%. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly because the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) agreed to maintain the production increase plan in January, i.e. an increase of 400000 barrels / day, in line with market expectations, but the impact of the mutant virus Omicron on energy demand is still fermenting, and the oil price is still in an empty environment.

Since the end of November, the decline of crude oil has expanded, the downstream styrene has maintained a continuous downward trend, and the upstream and downstream support of pure benzene is weak. In terms of supply, the load of a large unit in East China is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in December; The arrival of cargo at East China port is concentrated, and the inventory rises rapidly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the later stage. Multiple bad news superimposed, and the price of pure benzene fell rapidly. The hydrogenated benzene market mainly follows the trend of pure benzene downward. Affected by the continuous decline of the market, the mentality of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased recently. The operating rate has declined as a whole, and the demand for crude benzene is poorly supported. As the environmental protection supervision team of coking enterprises settled in Heilongjiang, Ningxia and other places this weekend, some local enterprises are expected to have a certain impact on their output. Since entering the heating season, affected by multiple factors, coking enterprises have been actively reducing and limiting production, the output of coke and by-products has been at a low level, and the supply and demand of crude benzene industrial chain are weak.

In the future, the business society believes that the accumulation of pure benzene in East China and the weak supply and demand once again affect the market mentality. At present, the profits of benzene hydrogenation enterprises are low, the operation of enterprises is low, and the demand for crude benzene slows down. Although the supply of crude benzene is tight in the near future, it lacks downstream support, and the future price is expected to be weak.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers increased this month, and the quotation increased from 2890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3190.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan / ton, or 10.38%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.12%. On November 29, the commodity index of potassium chloride was 101.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.45% from the highest point of 103.81 in the cycle (2021-10-12), and up 73.85% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now)

In terms of domestic potassium: the largest producer of potassium chloride in China, the leading enterprise of potassium fertilizer, and the unit operation of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is acceptable. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3190 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price of Zangger holdings is relatively consistent with that of salt lake group. The ex factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2900-3100 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is relatively tight.

In terms of port potassium: at the end of the month, the quotation of port potassium gradually maintained stability. The quotation of 62% white potassium at the port has been about 4100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of 60% Dahong granular potassium at the port is about 4000 yuan / ton. The market transaction is limited, up about 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

In terms of border trade potassium: at the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium was 3800 yuan / ton, an increase of about 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. The supply of goods is limited and the transaction is limited.

Guarantee supply and stable price of domestic potash fertilizer, mainly temporarily stable in the future

The start-up of Salt Lake and zangge units has not reached full opening, and they have successively entered the winter maintenance period. The output of potassium chloride is gradually declining, and the supply of goods is tight. The winter storage market has started one after another, and traders take a small amount of goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash price is high, the domestic potash is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.