According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8680.00 yuan / ton on January 16 and 8720.00 yuan / ton on January 24. The increase rate in the week was 0.46%, up 0.11% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11950.00 yuan / ton on January 16 and 12087.50 yuan / ton on January 24. The increase rate in the week was 1.15%, down 2.22% from January 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8866.67 yuan / ton on January 16 and 8933.33 yuan / ton on January 24. The increase rate in the week was 0.75%, an increase of 1.52% compared with January 1.

This week, the prices of the three major polyethylene spot varieties were strong, rising to varying degrees. Among them, LDPE and HDPE markets showed a continuous upward trend, llldpe market rose first and then stabilized, and the increase range in East China was 50-150 yuan / ton. During the week, the rise of international crude oil brought obvious support to the market, and the actors in Liansu futures market brought certain benefits. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises has increased, and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream has good enthusiasm for entering the market in the early stage, and the market trading atmosphere is mild. The quotation of merchants increased with the increase, but the range was limited.

Liansu futures market rose one after another, bringing obvious support to the spot market. On January 24, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2205 was 8945, the highest price was 9096, the lowest price was 8883, the closing price was 8888, the former settlement price was 8920, the settlement price was 8983, down 32, or 0.36%, the trading volume was 523012, the position was 308363, and the daily position was increased by – 16140. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

On the whole, the market maintenance devices are reduced and the supply increases slightly. In terms of demand, the downstream factories have successively opened the holiday mode near the Spring Festival, the operating rate has declined, and the demand is expected to decrease. The support brought to the market by the decline of international crude oil price and the decline of Liansu futures market is limited. It is expected that the price of PE spot market will be adjusted first and then decreased in the short term.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (January 24): 10433.33 yuan / ton

On January 24, the market price of melamine rose steadily, up 1.29% compared with the previous trading day and 8.68% compared with the price on December 24. At present, the upstream urea price has risen slightly, the cost support has been strengthened slightly, the terminal factories have holidays one after another, the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade market is general, and the enterprises mainly ship and receive orders in advance in an orderly manner.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be consolidated and operated stably.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol market rose slightly this week. The average price of isopropanol was 7166.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7216.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 0.7% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

The domestic isopropanol market rose steadily this week. At present, isopropanol is the main export order. The manufacturer’s price inventory is small, with a slight increase in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a relatively stable increase in Shandong. On the whole, the trading atmosphere in the domestic market is general, the traders are more cautious, and the traders remain on the sidelines. Up to now, most quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7100 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7350 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7200 yuan / ton. Internationally, on January 11, isopropanol in the United States closed stable, while isopropanol in Europe closed slightly lower.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell this week. The long holiday is approaching, and the participation of downstream factories is declining. According to the monitoring of business society, the national market showed that the national average offer was 5615 yuan / ton on January 14 and 5675 yuan / ton on January 21, with an overall increase of 1.07% during the week. As of January 21, the negotiation in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5800 yuan / ton, the offer in surrounding areas of Yanshan was 5600 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5750 yuan / ton. The business agency expects the short-term acetone market range to be adjusted, and the reference price negotiated in East China is 5450 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the price map of business society, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to rise this week, breaking through 8000 yuan, with a slight correction on Friday. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 8150-8200 yuan / ton. The maintenance of propylene units in Shandong increased, while the external supply decreased and the supply tightened. Towards the end of the year, the downstream began to prepare goods one after another. Stimulated by demand, the price of propylene rose strongly. Near the end of the year, the pre holiday goods preparation is coming to an end, there are signs of reduction in demand, the price callback occurred on Friday, and it is unlikely to continue to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that at present, the export orders of domestic factories are mainly, the inventory is low, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The price of acetone rose first and then fell, the price of propylene rose, and the support of raw materials for isopropanol was acceptable. The price of isopropanol is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly this week. By the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7412.5 yuan / ton, up 0.51% from the price of 7375 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 32.07% year-on-year. Recently, the market price of phthalic anhydride has increased driven by the price of phthalic anhydride.

This week, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to rise, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the downstream DOP market price rose, the price trend of orthobenzene rose, the plasticizer market rose, favorable factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market rose. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, but the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, and the actual transaction has little change. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions in the venue are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7400-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7100-7200 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7300-7500 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream purchase is mainly based on demand. The downstream DOP market is higher, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

The price of domestic orthobenzene rose this week, with the on-site price of 6800 yuan / ton, up 3.03% compared with the price of 6600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The rise in the price of domestic orthobenzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area has risen, the external quotation of orthobenzene has risen, and the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has declined recently. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, The price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising, and the price of raw material phthalic anhydride is higher, which is good for the domestic phthalic anhydride market price. Affected by this, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising.

The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride rose this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 10500 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with a price increase of 4.48%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the DOP supply was normal, the isooctanol price rose, the DOP raw material cost rose, the operation of DOP enterprises was low, the DOP supply was sufficient, the PVC price fluctuated and stabilized, the downstream demand was general, and the market transaction was general. Plasticizer DOP market has increased upward momentum and weakened downward pressure. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is 10500-10700 yuan / ton. DOP price rises this week, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is affected.

In general, the recent rise in the price of phthalic anhydride and the rising trend in the downstream plasticizer industry have boosted the phthalic anhydride market. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of the afternoon of January 17, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9806.67 yuan / ton, up 0.24% compared with the price on Monday (January 10), down 8.35% compared with the price on December 17, and down 47.56% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the melamine market was mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises increased. Recently, the price of raw material urea has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the operating rate of melamine market is about 80%, the orders in the export market are OK, the downstream of domestic trade is ready before the festival, and the focus of market negotiation is stable.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on January 17, up 1.37% from January 10 and 4.39% from January 1.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost side has certain support and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of the collective rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic potassium chloride market showed a trend of sharp rise in the first three quarters and wide fluctuation in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of increases in the first three quarters, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes finally reached 3270.00 yuan / ton in August, which is the highest point of the year. However, after the state issued the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the price of potassium chloride began to fluctuate widely in mid October, rising and falling at 300 yuan / ton. According to the data monitored by the business society, the ex factory price of potassium chloride at the beginning of the year was 2160.00 yuan / ton, and the price of potassium chloride at the end of the year was 2890.00 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 33.80% during the year. The lowest price in the whole year is in the middle and early ten days of February, and the price is 2140.00 yuan / ton. The highest price in the whole year is in August and September, and the price is 3270.00 yuan / ton, with the maximum amplitude of 52.80% in the year.

From the statistical chart of port potassium chloride price, the port potassium chloride self lifting price in 2021 also showed a trend of sharp increase in the first three quarters and narrow fluctuation in the fourth quarter. The price of 62% white potassium in the port once reached a high of 4300 yuan / ton in the year. According to the statistical chart of potassium chloride import and export quantity, China’s potassium chloride import is about 7.28 million tons by November 2021.

Market Review

In the first quarter, the potassium chloride market fell first and then rose. January continued the strong trend of December 2020. The domestic trading atmosphere of potassium chloride was general, the downstream demand was insufficient, and there were few new orders. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2160.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.69% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream enterprises of potassium chloride started one after another, with strong upstream support and good downstream demand. The price of potassium chloride fell slightly, mainly sorting. The price of potassium chloride decreased by 0.92% from 2175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2155.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In March, the price of potassium chloride rose sharply. With the preparation of spring ploughing all over the country, agricultural fertilizer has entered the peak season. The potassium chloride equipment in the salt lake operates normally, with a daily output of 11000 tons from 6000-8000 tons in early February. However, some large traders stopped selling and were reluctant to sell potassium chloride, resulting in poor spot liquidity, tight overall supply and shortage of individual varieties in some regions, resulting in a large increase in the price of potassium fertilizer. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2155.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2380.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.44%. In the first quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 10.19%.

The potassium chloride market continued to rise in the second quarter. In April, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise slightly. The price rose from 2380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.09%. The domestic potassium chloride plant has not been fully opened since its start-up, and there are many orders to be issued, which are still being shipped. The port stock of imported potassium at the port is about 2.5 million tons, but excluding the 1.5 million tons of national commercial reserves, the available source of imported potassium chloride at the port is even less than 1 million tons. The price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable in May. The national storage time of potash fertilizer is coming to an end, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually strong. In terms of port potash, the spot circulation is poor, and most of the supply is concentrated in the hands of large traders. In June, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.89%. The supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market is tight, the supply of goods is tight, the price remains strong, and the bidding price of Salt Lake Group’s products has repeatedly reached new highs. In terms of imported potassium, the Hong Kong stock has continued to decline for seven weeks and has dropped to about 2.1 million tons. The circulation of potassium in border trade is small. There is a phenomenon of hoarding goods in the market to rise. The source of goods available for sale is tight. Brokers quote sporadically, with obvious intention to explore the rise. The transaction prices everywhere are chaotic, and most varieties have no obvious mainstream price. In the second quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 17.65%.

In the third quarter, the potassium chloride market was consolidated at a high level. In July, the price of potassium chloride increased from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3270.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.79%. 8. In September, the price of potassium chloride remained at a high level of 3270 yuan / ton. In terms of domestic potassium, the start-up in Qinghai is normal, some small factories are overhauled, the spot supply is limited, the shipment is normal, there is a tight supply of marketable goods, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the transaction prices are chaotic, and the transaction negotiation is mainly. In terms of imported potassium, affected by the continuous rise of the international market and the reduction of ship arrivals in the market, the price rose rapidly, and traders were reluctant to sell and wait for rise. In terms of border trade potassium, the circulation of potassium chloride at border trade ports is small, there is a phenomenon of hoarding goods to rise, and the available supply of goods is tight.

The market of potassium chloride fluctuated widely in the fourth quarter. The price of potassium chloride fell sharply in October. The supply of chemical fertilizer remained stable, the domestic leading enterprises of potassium chloride were punished, and the price of potassium chloride fell. The price decreased from 3270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.62%. In November, the price of potassium chloride increased slightly, from 2890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3190.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.38%. The operation of potassium chloride plants in Salt Lake and zangge is OK, but the market supply continues to be tight due to transportation and other reasons. In December, the price of potassium chloride fell to 2890.00 yuan / ton. The downstream compound fertilizer plant promoted the winter storage slowly, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, the market transactions of high priced potassium chloride were limited, the price decline of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer became more and more obvious in the last ten days, and the price of potassium chloride also began to fall. The overall price of potassium chloride fell by 11.62% in the fourth quarter

International potash fertilizer consolidation at a high level, downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and potassium chloride is bullish in the future

In the middle and late January, the market of potassium chloride may rise slightly. The spot CFR price of potassium chloride in Brazil has reached US $800 / ton, US $770 / ton in South Africa, US $730 / ton in Australia and US $620 / ton in Southeast Asia, nearly three times higher than that at the beginning of the year. International potassium chloride support is obvious. Belarus suffered sanctions, sea transportation was closed, and other modes of transportation increased costs, blocked exports and increased prices. At the same time, the rising prices of agricultural products and other commodities have stimulated farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, resulting in a sharp increase in the demand for potassium fertilizer, resulting in a situation of short supply, forming a hot situation of chemical fertilizer this year. In the future, the price of domestic potassium chloride is expected to rise slightly.

DBP prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DBP prices fluctuated and rose this week, and DBP prices rose. As of January 17, the DBP price was 10233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.3% from the DBP price of 9733.33 yuan / ton on January 10; Rising raw material prices and Spring Festival stock up led to rising DBP prices.

The price of butanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose this week. As of January 17, the price of n-butanol was 9600 yuan / ton, up 2.86% from 9333.33 yuan / ton on January 10. This week, the downstream customers prepared goods in the Spring Festival, and the demand for n-butanol increased briefly, which stimulated the rise of n-butanol price, raw material price, cost support and DBP rising power.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week. As of January 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7412.50 yuan / ton, up 2.24% from 7250.00 yuan / ton on January 7. When downstream customers prepare goods in the Spring Festival, the demand for phthalic anhydride rises briefly, the price of raw material o-benzene rises, which stimulates the price rise of phthalic anhydride, the price rise of DBP raw material, the cost support increases, and the driving force of DBP rise increases.

PVC trend stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizer is insufficient, which is still bad for DBP market.

Future expectations

DBP data analysts of business agency believe that stimulated by the soaring price of crude oil and the demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival, the prices of raw materials n-butanol, octanol and phthalic anhydride increased, the cost of plasticizer DBP increased and the price of DBP increased. In the future, the Spring Festival stock up is coming to an end, the downstream start-up is low, the raw materials rise or slow down, the demand is insufficient, and the rising space is limited. It is expected that the future DBP price will rise first and then stabilize.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply this week. As of January 14, the spot nickel price was 166533.33 yuan / ton, up 5.72% from 157516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 23.79% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose and fell by 6. Recently, nickel prices still fluctuated strongly.

Nickel industry chain

Supply and demand: high energy costs have led to refinery production reduction, and the global nickel inventory has been maintained. The severe weather in the rainy season in the Philippines caused a sharp decline in nickel ore imports, tight market supply and a boost in nickel prices. On the one hand, the production of stainless steel decreased from January to February; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for nickel sulfate in the field of electric vehicles. Ternary precursor enterprises begin to prepare goods before the Spring Festival, and the demand for nickel sulfate increases.

To sum up: the global epidemic is severe and the downstream transactions turn weak, but the LME inventory decreases sharply, the supply is tight and the demand for new energy is strong, which promotes the strong trend of nickel price. It is expected that the short-term shock of nickel is mainly strong.

This week, the lead market (12.31-1.7) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15256.25 yuan / ton last weekend and 15331.25 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.49%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of futures, affected by the new year’s Day holiday at the beginning of this week, the price was stable. Affected by the expected interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the metal trend was generally under pressure, and Lun lead operated weakly. Supported by the low level of LME lead inventory, it began to rebound over the weekend. Shanghai lead showed a “V” trend as a whole this week, falling from a high on Wednesday and rebounding from a low on Friday, with a single day increase of more than 2%.

In terms of spot market, the trend this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead. The domestic mainstream quotation range is 15000-15450 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates greatly, the downstream consumption is general, and most of them are wait-and-see. In terms of supply, the start-up of primary lead is slightly stable and the supply is acceptable. Near the New Year holiday, downstream battery enterprises have a certain demand for goods preparation, and are expected to consume the current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2022 (1.3-1.7), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were neodymium oxide (8.11%), magnesium (7.14%) and metal neodymium (6.14%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were silver (- 3.91%), metallic silicon (- 1.08%) and gold (- 1.06%). Both rose or fell by 2.04% this week.

Overall, the fundamental changes of lead market are limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious, most of which are based on demand. Under the environment of weak supply and demand, the market outlook is dominated by shock. When the downstream preparation is completed, the lead ingot inventory will pick up, and the price may have downward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices rose slightly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 53142.86 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was 53714.29 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.08%. On January 9, the bromine commodity index was 188.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.13% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 219.87% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising slightly. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 50000-57000 yuan / ton. The main reason for the rise of bromine price is that domestic bromine enterprises stopped production at the end of December, and the supply of enterprises decreased. Some downstream intermediate enterprises resumed production. In the early stage, because the price was low, now bromine enterprises have low inventory and are reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2026.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2060 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.64%, 107.38% over the same period last year. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid is purchased on demand, the market demand for liquid sulfur is acceptable, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the price of phosphate fertilizer rises, the market demand increases, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market improves, the price of sulfur fixation rises, the downstream market is better, and the sulfur price is adjusted and raised.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine has risen, but the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to high price bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, except for individual products. However, many bromine manufacturers offer firm prices. Considering the general needs of the downstream, it is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will rise sharply, and the foundation is not solid. See the downstream market demand for details.