Precious metal prices continued to move down this week

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average early price of silver market was 5001.67 yuan / kg, down 0.69%, down 4.08% from the average early price of 5214.67 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 1.49%; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.86%.

On March 31, the spot market price of gold was 393.93 yuan / g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, down 1.51% from the early average price of 399.98 yuan / G on Friday (March 1), and up 1.71% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.79%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Leading factors of precious metal prices in the month

Risk aversion triggered by geopolitics & the landing of interest rate increase

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia was fermented from the news to the actual occurrence, detonating the market risk aversion and dominating the early rising market; In June, the interest rate hike of the central bank and the US Federal Reserve landed, superimposed on the decline of risk aversion, and the price of precious metals fell slightly this week.

From the investment data, SPDR gold ETF positions remained unchanged at 1093.18 tons in terms of ETF positions; SLV silver ETF position increased by 57.46 tons to 17236.55 tons. The market investment atmosphere is good.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak, there is pressure to increase interest rates on precious metals and inflation support under precious metals. It is expected to be dominated by wide shocks.

The price of chloroform rose sharply in March. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 30, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 5887 yuan / ton, up 15.16% from 5112 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the price of methanol rose, and the cost strengthened in the face of chloroform. According to the business agency, as of March 30, the price of methanol was 3090 yuan / ton, up 13.19% from 2730 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In mid and late March, the logistics transportation in many regions in China was blocked, the start-up of downstream refrigerants decreased as a whole, and some units stopped. The support of demand for chloroform weakened.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that at present, the circulation of trichloromethane industrial chain is reduced, but the cost is higher. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will remain high in the short term.

In March, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell, with an overall rise of 3.28%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5725 yuan / ton on March 1, 5912 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 3.28% in the month, and the offer of domestic phenol market was 6337 yuan / ton on March 10, with an amplitude of 10.7%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 5850 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 5850-5950 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

In the first ten days of March, the acetone market in East China and even the whole country rose sharply. In the first ten days of March, the market offer in East China rose to 6330 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 days or 10.7%. Crude oil continued to rise, driving the outer disk of pure benzene and styrene at the raw material end to rise sharply. At this time, propylene increased significantly, which was positive, and the center of gravity continued to rise. Subsequently, crude oil fell sharply on the 10th, and some domestic parts had a great impact on logistics and transportation due to the aggravation of public events. The shipment of cargo holders was blocked, the inventory pressure of petrochemical enterprises increased, the shipment was also difficult, and the offer of the market and factories was loose. In the middle and late part of the whole year, with the continuous fermentation of domestic public events, the logistics problem became more and more serious, the circulation of goods in the region was not smooth, and the dual raw materials also entered the downward channel one after another. Under the continuous concessions of goods holders, the market accelerated downward, and the market focus was seriously frustrated. In the last ten days of the year, the petrochemical manufacturers were under pressure to reduce the guidance price, but the market weakness was difficult to contain, and the on-site trading was cold.

The downstream bisphenol a market was dominated by the overall downturn. The bisphenol a market continued to decline in the middle and early March, mainly due to the lack of good supply and demand, the continuous decline of upstream raw materials, and the lack of demand in the downstream. The conversation was depressed, and the market once fell to 15300 yuan / ton. However, near the end of the month, the market rebounded rapidly and rose significantly at 1000-1300 yuan / ton due to the centralized replenishment demand at the downstream PC end. As of the 30th, the mainstream offer in the domestic market was 16400-16500 yuan / ton.

In April, it was difficult to significantly improve the supply and demand structure. Most terminals were just in need of follow-up. In the near future, we should continue to pay attention to the logistics and transportation caused by domestic public events, especially the logistics in the northern region was blocked, the shipment pressure of cargo holders was high, and the downstream terminal enterprises were just in need of follow-up at this stage, with little intention of replenishment. On the other hand, the recent cost side is greatly affected by crude oil fluctuations. According to the prediction of business society, the offset between supply and demand in April has little change, and the domestic acetone market is expected to operate in a range of fluctuations.

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose sharply this month. The quotation increased from 263.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 345.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 31.18%, an increase of 74.68% year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

On March 28, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 90.79, down 2.3 points from yesterday, down 34.16% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 404.95% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The upstream support is strengthened and the downstream procurement is better

Domestic hydrochloric acid Market in March

manufactor., March 1, March 15, March 29th

Dezhou Shihua, 300 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong, 135 yuan / ton, 135 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an, 600 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton, 550 yuan / ton

Shanxi Wenshui, 230 yuan / ton, 230 yuan / ton, 230 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand is general. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid at the end of the month was 500 yuan / ton, which increased by 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid was 100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 35 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid at the end of the month was 550 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Wenshui synthesis at the end of the month is 230 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, strengthening the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The price of ammonium chloride rose from 1257.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1345.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.96%, an increase of 80.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminium chloride market rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2330.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2373.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.88%, up 38.12% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose slightly, and the downstream has a good enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of downstream ammonium chloride has increased slightly, the price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 28, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 14700.00 yuan / ton. In March, the price of DMF was mainly downward. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell by 8.12%, reaching 1300 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price is 14700 yuan / ton, and the overall trend is weak and volatile.

In the first ten days of March, the DMF market was stable and weak. As of March 10, the DMF market rose by 0.15% in a narrow range, slightly upward, and the focus of negotiation was stable. In the first ten days of March, the mainstream price of DMF was 16500-16800 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere was general, the manufacturers shipped actively, the operating rate was stable, there was no pressure on the inventory, and the downstream just needed to purchase. As of March 4, the upstream methanol price was stable and above, and the mainstream price was 2750 yuan / ton. Traders operated cautiously and had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, In the short term, the methanol market is strong and rising, and the manufacturer’s quotation is slightly increased.

In the middle of March, the market trend of DMF declined, the price fell, and the focus of negotiation was weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price fell by 4.5%. As of March 14, the mainstream price of DMF was 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s shipment was slow, the inventory was normal, the supply side was normal, the inventory was not under pressure, and the downstream just needed to purchase. Watch carefully. The upstream methanol price was stable and weak, the rising space was limited, the downstream demand was general, and the transaction atmosphere was cold, The possibility of decline is not ruled out.

From late March to March 21, the DMF market fell weakly, with an overall decline of 3.23%. The focus of negotiation was weak. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment was slow, the inventory was general, the operating rate was normal, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The manufacturer successively reduced the price, with a decline of 300-500 yuan / ton. The latest quotation of the manufacturer: Jinan yingsen Chemical Co., Ltd. 15000 yuan / ton, Dongying Jinying Chemical Co., Ltd. 16000 yuan / ton, Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 15000 yuan / ton, Jinan Jinhao Chemical Co., Ltd. is 16400 yuan / ton, Shandong Chengze Chemical Co., Ltd. is 15000 yuan / ton, Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd. is 15000 yuan / ton, the upstream methanol is weak and stable, the traders have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the demand side is weak, at present, the supply side is sufficient, the shipment is slow, and the prices in some regions decline slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on March 27, the chemical index was 1197 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 100.17% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the stable operation of DMF market is expected to be dominated in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price stopped falling and rose this week. The market price was 8259 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8408 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.81%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene (Shandong) stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the focus of market transaction shifted upward. Crude oil prices surged this week, and propylene prices rose under the support of cost. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, some enterprises were underemployed and market supply tightened. The downstream demand has improved slightly and purchases on demand.

Upstream: upstream raw materials are mainly rising, the cost support is acceptable, and the price of naphtha decreases slightly, with limited impact on propylene.

Downstream: downstream products rose and fell. The main downstream polypropylene market improved slightly, but the rising power was insufficient. The overall downstream market improved compared with last week, and the support for propylene gradually improved.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business agency believe that the cost of raw materials is still high, and the demand side is gradually improving. It is expected that the focus of propylene transaction will move upward in the near future.

This week (3.14-18), the domestic ethyl acetate continued its decline last week. According to the statistics of business agency, the decline this week was 3.78%, mainly due to the lower cost of acetic acid raw materials, the main factories in Shandong stopped bidding and changed to retail, which affected the market mentality and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7800-8200 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, domestic acetic acid decreased significantly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, East China acetic acid decreased by 2.40% this week. This week, the domestic acetic acid market was mostly weak. Due to the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid in the first ten days, the overall acceptance of the downstream was not high. Therefore, the prices in Northwest and central China were mostly callback this week; Especially in East China and North China, affected by the epidemic, sales are blocked, but the overall inventory pressure of the factory is small, and the price is relatively resistant to decline; From the perspective of supply and demand, the acetic acid market is still in abundant supply, and the downstream demand maintains rigid demand. The falling price of acetic acid weakened the support of ethyl ester and butyl ester in the downstream.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the decline of acetic acid is more obvious, the price performance is weak, and the curve is close, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl acetate enterprises are still improving.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable this week, and the main large factories in Shandong maintained normal operation. This week, manufacturers generally reduced the ex factory price by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the factory is still retail, and there is no large volume of transactions. Some manufacturers in South China have reduced their production load. At present, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is obvious, mainly reducing prices and arranging inventory, but the market expectation has weakened. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, dealers and downstream factories have weak purchase intention this week, mainly with small orders and low-end prices. Affected by the national epidemic situation, the transportation is limited, the freight rate is higher than that in the previous period, and the goods circulation is insufficient, which further limits the demand for ethyl acetate.

In the future, the analysts of ethyl acetate of business society believe that the current cost of ethyl acetate is declining, the supply and demand are weak, and the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers remains stable. However, it does not rule out the reduction of load production due to sluggish transactions and poor profits in the later stage, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the later stage, but considering the weakness of cost, the price is difficult to improve too much.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose sharply this week, and the quotation increased from 831.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 1070.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 28.66%, a year-on-year increase of 165.84% compared with the same period last year. On March 17, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 149.93, up 0.25 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 375.67% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Strong upstream cost support and enhanced downstream procurement enthusiasm

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers increased slightly and sharply this week, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 1400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 380 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulphuric acid quoted 980 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 290 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, up 280 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid quoted 950 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 170 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 690 yuan / ton this weekend, up 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

The price of upstream / downstream sulfur industry rose by 2783.83 yuan over the weekend, which gradually increased from the price of upstream / downstream sulfur industry by 11.83 yuan over the same period last year, and gradually increased from the price of upstream / downstream sulfur industry at the weekend to 2783.67 yuan over the same period last year. The downstream bromine market fluctuated in a narrow range, dominated by consolidation. The quotation fell from 55916.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 55833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.15%, up 62.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market was adjusted at a high level, with a quotation of 4933.33 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 92.21% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Market outlook rose slightly

In the middle and late March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may rise slightly. The upstream sulfur market has gradually increased recently, with a large increase and good cost support. The downstream formic acid market is consolidated at a high level, while the downstream bromine market fluctuates in a narrow range, mainly consolidation. Downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite fell this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2605.56 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from the price of 2608.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5.82% year-on-year.

The price trend of fluorite declined slightly this week. Recently, the fluorite devices in the field have been gradually started. Even if some merchant devices have not been started, the supply of fluorite in the field has increased. In addition, the downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and the transaction is not positive, so the price trend in the field has declined slightly. Recently, the units of some fluorite manufacturers have been restarted, the operation of mines and flotation in the site has increased, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site is general, and the market price of fluorite has mainly fallen. This week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is lower, and the downstream of the terminal is mainly purchased on demand. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2450-2600 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of domestic fluorite has decreased slightly.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10830 yuan / ton. The price trend is stable this week. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite has fallen slightly. This week, the price trend of downstream refrigerant products was stable, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remained low, and the recent sales situation of the automobile industry was general, but the quota of refrigerant manufacturers was insufficient, the refrigerant market was depressed, the demand was mainly purchased on demand, and the market trend of the refrigerant industry was temporarily stable. On the whole, the refrigerant market is mainly low, the price trend of chloroform is temporarily stable, and the cost of the refrigerant industry has little change. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable. The operation of major mainstream refrigerant manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand does not improve. The demand in R22 market application field decreases, and enterprises reduce prices. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 16000-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a in China is stable, the price of trichloroethylene remains low, the cost support drops, the market price trend of R134a is temporarily stable, and the focus of trading is low. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market is depressed, and the price of fluorite is affected, and the trend decreases slightly.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is at a low level, the recent hydrofluoric acid market supply is normal, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Some fluorite devices will resume production. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite may remain low and stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 21, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products this week was 16750.00 yuan / ton, which maintained a stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, the price range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. The price of PMMA mainly maintained a stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price range of this week was small.

This week, the average price of domestic general transparent superior PMMA was 16750.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 16500 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The price of PMMA was mainly stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, the purchase was just needed, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply and demand was normal.

The upstream phenol mainly operates stably. As of the 18th, the offer in East China market is about 10750 yuan / ton, that in South China is about 10850 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is about 10800 yuan / ton. The phenol maintains stable operation in the short term.

Rubber and plastic index: on March 20, the rubber and plastic index was 800 points, unchanged from yesterday, 24.53% lower than the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and 51.52% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that the PMMA market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).