1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium on April 1 was 3550 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on April 29 was 3770 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 6.20% this month.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 3640 yuan / ton on April 1 and 3675 yuan / ton on April 28. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.96% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued the trend of last month, and the price rose again. In early April, the market of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise, and the price increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur and the continued pressure on the cost side, monoammonium phosphate enterprises raised the price again. In the middle of April, the price of monoammonium phosphate was stable, mainly implementing the early orders. The price of raw materials continues to rise, and the cost pressure increases. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main, and the follow-up of new orders is general. In late April, the price of raw sulfur continued to rise, and the cost side continued to exert pressure. The downstream compound fertilizer is purchased on demand, which is resistant to the high price of Monoammonium. Most enterprises have raised prices and the focus of transaction has been moving upward. As of April 29, the mainstream factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3800 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 3900 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is about 3700 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In April, the market of diammonium phosphate was at a high level, and the price trend was upward. In the middle and early ten days of April, the market of diammonium phosphate operated at a high level. The waiting volume of diammonium is nearing the end, and the cost pressure is not reduced. Most enterprises suspend receiving orders and stop quotation. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, on-site trading is general, and traders operate with caution. Domestic demand weakened and foreign orders increased. The market of diammonium phosphate is running smoothly at a high level this week. In late April, the focus of diammonium turned to export. The price of raw sulfur continued to rise, the cost side continued to exert pressure, the market of diammonium was strong, and the quotations of most manufacturers and dealers were raised. As of April 29, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei was 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 3800 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In April, the domestic market situation of raw phosphorus ore was dominated by high and stable operation after the overall rise at the beginning of the month. With the advent of spring ploughing season in April, the market of phosphate fertilizer in the downstream of phosphate rock terminal is good, the supply in phosphate rock yard continues to be tight, and the downstream demand is good. With the support of both supply and demand, on the 6th day of the month, the domestic phosphorus ore generally ushered in a rising operation, with an overall increase range of 20-30 yuan / ton. Under the tight supply in some areas, it mainly accounted for the users of supply contracts. Subsequently, the phosphorus ore market operated at a stable high level, the confidence of the field operators was good, the downstream demand was stable, and most of the field operators were firm and stable. By the end of the month, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 763 yuan / ton.

In April, the price of raw sulfur continued to rise, and the market continued to run strong. The output of domestic refineries is limited, the inventory is low, and the support for the sulfur price is obvious. The downstream demand is stable, the trend of sulfuric acid continues to rise, the market demand continues to be good, the enterprise shipment is smooth, and the supply is in short supply. The operator has a positive attitude, strong intention to support the price, and the sulfur price is stable and upward.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of business society believe that the current ammonium phosphate Market is generally dominated by behavior and the cost support is good. Replenishment on demand in the downstream, which is resistant to high prices. When the supply of goods is small, the delivery of goods is relatively smooth. It is expected that the cost will remain strong in the short term, and the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to operate at a high level.

In April, the domestic MIBK market fell broadly. As of the end of the month, the market offer was 13000 yuan / ton, and the actual order had more room for profit. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market mixed offer in East China was 13966 yuan / ton on April 1 and 13066 yuan / ton on April 30, down 6.44% during the month.

In early April, the 50000 T / a device of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang was restarted after the festival, the operating rate of the industry increased, and the expected supply increased in the future. However, the health events in East China continued to ferment, the logistics was limited, which had a great impact on terminal procurement, the logistics cost of small order procurement increased, the purchasing power of downstream consolidation was poor, the mentality of cargo holders was strong, and the quotation was loose.

In late April, it was close to the May Day holiday, but the terminal had little enthusiasm for goods preparation. Some enterprises started small single barrel replenishment after the festival, the logistics was still seriously blocked, the social inventory was accumulated high, the shipping pressure was still large, the price fell again, and the trading volume needed to be improved.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

From the perspective of acetone market at the raw material end, there were mixed ups and downs in April, and the negotiation atmosphere in the venue was tepid. At the beginning of the month, the port inventory was high and the supply was sufficient. Enterprises lowered the listing price, increasing the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the latter half of the year, the market rebounded in a narrow range with the preparation of goods before the festival. By the end of the month, the negotiated price of acetone in East China was 5550-5600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of business society, the domestic health events after the festival will continue to affect the market. At present, the inventory pressure of enterprises is large, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected to continue to decline after the festival. In the middle and late days, it depends on the national recovery and local logistics and transportation. With the continuous resumption of domestic terminal factories, it is expected to improve in the late days

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 28, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 155000.00 yuan / ton. The market price of lithium iron phosphate fell sharply this month, down 3.12% compared with the same period last month, down 5000 yuan / ton. The focus of the overall market negotiation was stable, the inventory was tight, and the price fell slightly.

In the first ten days of April, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, the mainstream price was 165000 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is insufficient. They mainly arrange orders and deliver goods from contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, the upstream remains high, the price continues to rise, and the cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains, As of April 12, the price of upstream lithium carbonate decreased slightly. In terms of supply, the increase of new capacity in the market continued, and the supply continued to rise. At present, the overall market demand is relatively weak, the market spot tension has eased, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to maintain stability. In terms of demand, the demand for the four cathode materials fell due to the reduction of orders. Smelting enterprises also delivered at low prices, leading to the decline of small and medium-sized lithium salt plants and traders. The upstream and downstream game in the market is loose.

In the middle of April, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, the mainstream price was 160000 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, some manufacturers shut down, the supply of goods is tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and shipment of contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, the upstream remains high, and the price continues to rise, The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate still exists. As of April 15, the upstream lithium carbonate had 473200 yuan / ton of industrial grade lithium carbonate and 492000 yuan / ton of battery grade lithium carbonate. The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. In terms of supply, the increase of new capacity in the market continued and the supply continued to rise. At present, the overall market demand is relatively weak, the market spot tension has eased, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to maintain stability. In terms of demand, the demand for the four cathode materials fell due to the reduction of orders. Smelting enterprises also delivered at low prices, leading to the decline of small and medium-sized lithium salt plants and traders. The upstream and downstream game in the market is loose.

In late April, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 160000 yuan / ton. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight. Some manufacturers are shut down, the supply of goods is tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and shipment of contract customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, the upstream remains high, and the price continues to rise, The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate still exists. As of April 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 470000 yuan / ton. Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the impact of the current epidemic continues, and the impact on the demand side still exists. Under the condition that the support of high price lithium salt is weakening day by day, there is selling sentiment in the market, which puts pressure on the price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term will be weak and volatile.

Chemical index: on April 27, the chemical index was 1166 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the analysts of business society lithium iron phosphate, it is expected that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate stably and weakly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

This week (4.18-22), the domestic butyl acetate market continued the trend of previous weeks, mainly continued to decline, and the decline deepened slightly. Butyl acetate continued to fall in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 2.92% this week. At the weekend, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate is 9700-10000 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid and n-butanol are out of the market. In particular, acetic acid decreased significantly. The decline in cost is the direct reason for the decline in the price of butyl acetate, and n-butanol rebounded mainly after the decline.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid market maintained the decline of last week this week, and the decline deepened. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid decreased by 8.43%, and the overall transaction was general. This week, Shanghai Huayi plant resumed production, superimposed the normalization of manufacturers’ devices in Shandong and Henan, and the market supply increased significantly. Due to the impact of public health events, the transportation in some areas is not smooth, especially in the main production areas of central China, Shandong and East China. On the other hand, the problem of transportation and the high freight rate lead to the high inventory of manufacturers, and the prices of manufacturers are naturally under pressure. The sharp decline in cost is the direct reason for the lower price of butyl acetate.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price.

Future forecast: in the short term, the fundamentals of butyl acetate are not good, and the supply and demand side still maintains a short pattern. However, considering that there may be limited room for the decline of acetic acid in the later stage and the rebound of n-butanol, the cost bottoms out in the later stage or forms a certain support for the butyl market. In the near future, we need to pay attention to whether the upstream acetic acid market can be reversed and the operation of downstream plants.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market has increased slightly since April. As of April 25, the average market price was 6129 yuan / ton, up 1.17% from the beginning of the month and 34.22% year-on-year.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

Manufacturer, Unit capacity (10000 tons / year), Device change

Yisheng Ningbo, two hundred It was overhauled on April 13, and the current load is about 80%

two hundred and twenty In April, the load was reduced by about 50%, and the current load is about 80%

Yisheng new material, three hundred and thirty In April, the load was reduced by about 50%, and the current load is about 80%

three hundred and thirty The current load is about 80%

Yadong petrochemical, seventy The maintenance and restart time in the evening of April 7 is to be determined

Chuanneng chemical, one hundred It was stopped on April 13 and is planned to restart around the middle of May

Yisheng Dalian, two hundred and twenty-five On April 14, it stopped briefly and returned to normal

Hengli Dalian, two hundred and twenty Maintenance on April 20, restart time to be determined

Yisheng Hainan, two hundred The load is about 90% in mid April

Fuhaichuang, four hundred and fifty In early April, the load was reduced to 50%

In April, the overhaul and production reduction of major domestic PTA plants increased. As of April 25, the operating load of PTA industry was around 70%. Although it rebounded slightly at the end of the month, it was still lower than 10% in the same period last year. Moreover, due to the impact of logistics problems in some areas, there are few spot PTA circulation.

However, the price of international crude oil futures closed lower recently and the cost side was dragged down. As of April 25, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $98.54/barrel, down US $3.53 or 3.46%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.32/barrel, down US $4.33 or 4.06%. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike is expected to depress the capital market, and the prices of venture capital such as stock market and crude oil are under pressure; More importantly, the restrictive measures related to the epidemic have exacerbated the market’s concern about the prospect of energy demand.

At present, the downstream polyester and terminal looms have recovered slowly under the influence of the epidemic and logistics, and the operating rate of the device has fallen to 77%. The terminal demand has shrunk significantly and the follow-up is insufficient. Most of them continue the just needed purchase, and the market trading is general. At present, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has picked up slightly and maintained a low level of 54%. However, if the weaving factory continues to reduce production before May Day, the shipping pressure of polyester factory is still large.

Business analysts believe that the reduction of spot supply in the market supports PTA prices. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will continue to follow the fluctuation of crude oil, and we still need to pay attention to the boost of the gradual recovery of the downstream caused by the improvement of the epidemic in the later stage.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of April 24, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.34% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose last week. Pure benzene market continued to rise. The market is bullish on crude oil prices, driving the rise of pure benzene on the cost side. Styrene followed. Overall, if the raw materials rise next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

The market of acrylonitrile fell last week. In terms of supply, the on-site spot goods were reduced due to the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage. At present, the supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the support of the supply side to the spot goods is limited. Downstream demand performance is general, superimposed with the impact of health events on transportation, and the ex factory price of spot is under pressure.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market rebounded slightly and rose. There was no significant increase in the market supply during the week, and the amount of cash in circulation was slightly tight. In addition, as the holiday is approaching, there is a pre holiday stock demand in some downstream, which has a certain support on the demand side. It is expected that the downstream retail investors still have a certain pre holiday stock demand in this cycle, which may support the spot market.

Last week, the overall support of three materials upstream of ABS cost side was general. In terms of industry load, some domestic production lines began to be overhauled in the early stage, and the operating rate of ABS enterprises has decreased slightly. However, the mentality of manufacturers is not strong. China’s health events still have a great impact on some parts of East China. Logistics and production are affected, suppressing a certain amount of demand. The goods are not smooth in the field, and the offer falls. The situation in Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of many oil fields and the rise of crude oil. However, the transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is general, and the market differences are large. At present, the main bad news in the market is the shrinking demand caused by the impact of health events on the downstream load.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials is weak, which is difficult to form a strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is temporarily abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is lower than that in the early stage. The demand follow-up contracted due to the impact of transportation. I heard that the shipment is about to improve. It is expected that the ABS spot market may stop falling and rebound with the improvement of freight transportation in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuates in a narrow range. It is expected that during the second half of April, the price of corn in the main domestic production areas will be generally stable and slightly strong, and the substantive decline of price is very difficult.

The price of vitamin A was temporarily stable this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was stable at 232 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quoted 59-68 euros / kg. Recently, the production and sales of the market are weak, and the price focus is downward.

The price of vitamin E was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 92 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quotation this week is 9.8-10.85 euros / kg. Recently, affected by the epidemic, the market supply has tightened, the market attention has increased, and the price has a strong upward trend.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that: Overall, the demand is general, and the overall vitamin market is weak and difficult to change. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

The domestic epoxy resin market is running firmly, and the cost support of solid resin is strong, but the terminal demand is difficult to be significantly improved, and the transaction has not been significantly adjusted

. The liquid resin market is running firmly, with a narrow upward range of about 300 yuan / ton in the week. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 25000-25500 yuan / ton on April 11, and the market rose to 25300-25800 yuan / ton in a narrow range on April 18. As of press time, the market offer of liquid resin in East China was 25300-25800 yuan / ton, and the market offer of solid resin in Shandong was 22500-22800 yuan / ton.

 
Bisphenol A, the raw material, has been running steadily. As of the press release, the market negotiation was 16750-16800 yuan / ton, and Changchun chemical raised 100 yuan to 16800 yuan / ton.

Raw material dicyclopropane pushed up in a narrow range. The epichlorohydrin market rose rapidly due to the shutdown of Jiangsu Haixing and the increase of downstream replenishment. The market offer is 18700-19000 yuan / ton, which is a strong support for the downstream from the perspective of cost.

 
Due to the strong cost of epoxy resin, some large domestic resin manufacturers are in the process of parking, and the manufacturers are in the mood of supporting the price. However, at present, when the market supply is sufficient and the downstream demand side has not improved, it is mainly due to the current large logistics resistance and increased transaction difficulties. It is expected that the epoxy resin will be consolidated at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on April 17 was 126.96, the same as yesterday, down 10.99% from the highest point 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 50.57% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride increased slightly in the week (11-17), and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride increased from 2330 yuan / ton to 2348.75 yuan / ton, which continued to be stable, with a slight weekly increase of 0.8%. At present, the manufacturer’s production is relatively normal, the spot inventory is relatively sufficient, public health events affect the transportation and circulation of goods, delivery is difficult, and the cost increases.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly in the week (11-17), and the quotation fell from 345.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 310.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.14% and a year-on-year increase of 34.78%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week; The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of downstream ammonium chloride has increased slightly, and the purchase intention is good. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market has been falling continuously since April. The price first fell and then rebounded slightly this week. The overall price fell by about 2.63% from November to 17. At present, the logistics has gradually recovered, the shipment of liquid plants has turned positive, and the price has rebounded and rebounded. At the same time, some liquid plants in some regions have maintenance plans, there is support on the supply side, and the domestic liquid market is relatively strong. It is expected that the domestic LNG market may continue to rise slightly in the short term.

Future forecast: the current public health events have a significant impact, the circulation of goods is blocked and the transportation cost is increased. The demand has been reduced to some extent due to the impact, and some manufacturers are under great pressure to ship; Polyaluminium chloride market will be stable for the time being, supplemented by small adjustment.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 12166.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 2.67% year-on-year. On April 17, the isooctanol commodity index was 89.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.94% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 154.51% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong decreased slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan chemical is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12100 yuan / ton, which is 600 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. The quotation fell from 8494.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8441.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.63%, up 2.05% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP prices fell from 12250.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 11837.50 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.37%, up 3.61% year-on-year over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

The upstream support improved slightly, the downstream demand was general, and isooctanol was bullish in the future

In the middle and late April, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream propylene market showed an upward trend over the weekend, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market fell slightly and the downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.