According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell weakly, with an average price of 18400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.36% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 12.94%. During the week, the domestic aggregated MDI market operated weakly, with average downstream purchasing intentions and a focus on essential needs. At the same time, the news boost was limited, and the aggregated MDI market remained stagnant and consolidated.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s 350000 ton/year plant will undergo maintenance for approximately one month. Shanghai Covestro operates at low negative loads and has maintenance plans in the near future. Partial maintenance of Wanhua Ningbo equipment, low negative operation.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase. As of November 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7405 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market first fell and then rose. As of November 22nd, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9087 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, there is insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, resulting in low transaction volume and no signs of improvement in the near future.

Future forecast: The current trend of the aggregated MDI market is weak, with a downward trend in transaction volume. At the same time, the news boost is limited, and the mentality of industry players is poor. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 22400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.11% compared to the same period last year. On November 17th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable in the market, with prices in the Shandong region remaining stable. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the domestic bromine market price is generally stable. In addition, the device is running smoothly, the supply is normal, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively peaceful. The demand for downstream flame retardants dominated by bromine remains stable, while the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are running weakly, with an average market price of 1627.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1611 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has decreased by 1.02% and increased by 66.08% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain weak. Downstream demand for bromine has decreased, and the demand for flame retardants remains stable. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in October. From October 8th to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5752 yuan/ton to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.09% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.00%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices fluctuated and fell, with logistics restrictions and rising shipping costs. Along with poor downstream demand, companies were slow to ship and inventory pressure increased. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. After the holiday, production companies have gradually lowered their offers, and the focus of the ethanol market has once again fallen. In mid month, the price of raw corn continued to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, companies are shipping slowly, and the ethanol market continues to see a decline in quotes. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable with small fluctuations, and the supply of raw material corn was loose, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Downstream restocking in some regions has been slightly active, with factory shipments improving and industry sentiment rebounding.

In terms of cost, corn prices have slightly weakened, and new grain in major production areas continues to increase. Some farmers in areas where new grain has not yet been listed still have reluctance to sell. The purchase prices of deep processing enterprises have fluctuated, and some enterprises continue to purchase at lower prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply of ethanol in various regions of China remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are expected to operate normally, but overall supply fluctuations are limited. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; The production capacity of ethyl acetate continues to increase. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future forecast, the price of raw material corn is weak and stable, with insufficient support. With the increase in the operating rate of ethyl acetate, the demand for ethanol may increase. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may break through in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 8820 yuan/ton on October 30th.

Analysis: According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot market for styrene today is weak, and the sales price of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company has been lowered. The overall trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with downstream factories purchasing according to demand. At present, international crude oil prices have fallen, and the price of raw material pure benzene has also dropped, affecting market confidence. However, styrene has been slightly depleted in East China ports. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

In September, the import volume of acrylonitrile in China significantly decreased, with imports of 0.32 tons. The import volume decreased by 100% month on month and 206% year-on-year. The import volume of acrylonitrile from January to September was 54800 tons, a decrease of 100600 tons or 64.98% compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that domestic demand is relatively weak, coupled with the fact that imported acrylonitrile has no price advantage in the domestic market. The main import destinations are concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin.

In September, China exported 25896 tons of acrylonitrile, with an average price of 1110 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 6.15% month on month and 89.05% year-on-year. The export volume from January to September was 175000 tons, an increase of 43300 tons or 32.87% compared to the same period last year. Due to sufficient domestic supply and a certain price advantage, the export volume has significantly increased in the past two months.

In September, China’s acrylonitrile exporting countries were still mainly concentrated in the Asian region. South Korea remains the primary region for acrylonitrile exports, exporting 11000 tons of acrylonitrile, accounting for 43%. India and Thailand ranked second and third in terms of export volume, with export volumes of 8000 tons and 4000 tons, accounting for 31% and 17% respectively. However, it is worth noting that in the past two years, India, the main export destination, has extended the deadline for mandatory BIS certification of acrylonitrile, styrene (ethylbenzene), and maleic anhydride to October 24th. Therefore, the future export of acrylonitrile to India will be significantly reduced.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China rose from 7342 yuan/ton to 7457 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 28.69%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry continues to decline, and transportation in Xinjiang is slow, resulting in a shortage of market supply. The main supplier of the goods is the contract order, and the spot quantity is limited. The mainstream quotation is on the rise.

On the supply side, with the shutdown of a set of equipment in Inner Mongolia and the extension of 15 days for oil replacement, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has once again declined, and the market supply of goods is favorable.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: Recently, with the increase in supply and downstream maintenance, there has been a significant increase in market supply, leading to a decline in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. As of 10:00 am on October 18th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2445 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is rising, while methanol prices are narrowly declining, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PU slurry, and TPU have seen an increase in load, while other downstream industries such as PBT and PBAT have seen a decrease in load, and most industries are in a loss making state with limited ability to accept high prices. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

In the future forecast, the industry’s capacity utilization rate will still be at a low level, the market supply of goods will continue to be tight, and the profit intention of suppliers will actively support the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is expected to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine decreased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 20660 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.93%. On September 29th, the bromine commodity index was 69.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 71.58% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 18.26% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine has declined this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong is currently around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. With the decrease in weather and rainfall, the maintenance enterprises affected by rainfall in the early stage began to resume production, resulting in an increase in bromine production and the supplementation of imported bromine. The overall supply of bromine is relatively sufficient. The demand for main downstream flame retardants is weak. Weak shipments, dominated by bearish factors. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply and weak demand, bromine prices continue to decline.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur remained weak in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1435 yuan/ton, and at the end of use, the average market price was 1397.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 37.48%. The transaction atmosphere in the sulfur market is average, and downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to their needs.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have been weak recently. Recently, the overall supply of bromine has been stable and the source of goods is sufficient. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply leads to weak demand, and the comprehensive prediction of short-term bromine prices or market consolidation based on the supply-demand game depends on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 20th, the domestic TDI market was running weakly, with domestic TDI products priced around 13000-13100 yuan/ton and Shanghai products priced around 13100-13200 yuan/ton. The supplier lacked confidence in raising prices, and downstream purchases were made according to demand. Under the dominance of buying houses, the focus of TDI transactions shifted downwards. At present, there is a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, and in the absence of favorable demand in the short term, it is expected that the TDI market will have a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6666 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.32%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the center of gravity of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to move towards a low level. After the market price in Shandong fell below the 7000 yuan/ton mark, the trading atmosphere in the market remained weak, and the n-butanol market continued to decline. As of September 13th, the n-butanol market in Shandong was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

On the supply side: Since September, there have been both resumption of work and temporary parking in the n-butanol plant. The overall supply in the plant is still relatively loose, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market is limited.

In terms of demand: In early September, the overall performance of the “Golden Nine” effect in the n-butanol market was average. Downstream demand was cautious in stocking up before the holiday, and due to the continuous decline in the market, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market was strong. The conversion of demand was slow, and the overall support for n-butanol was weak.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ September 13th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7000-7100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is average, and the negotiation atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly weak and stable, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early September, terminal demand improved and the hydrogen peroxide market rebounded. On September 2nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 803 yuan/ton, and on September 9th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.73%.

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market rebounds

Since September 2nd, there has been an increase in terminal rigid demand, leading to an increase in manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide. The bullish trend has also increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has seen a rise, with an overall quotation of 800-900 yuan/ton. On September 9th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 750-800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in mid to late September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will increase, and the future hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an upward trend.