1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 15166.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.32%. On May 15, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 78.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.12% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 119.53% from the lowest point of 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 15300 yuan / ton, which increased by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 15500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15300 yuan / ton this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. The quotation fell from 8800.80 yuan / ton last weekend to 8576.60 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.55%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 17333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 17433.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.58%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde may rise slightly in mid May. The upstream propylene market showed an upward trend over the weekend, and the cost support was strengthened. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

From May 7 to May 13, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose as a whole, from 8662.5 yuan / ton last weekend to 8700 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.43% this week.

Price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from May 7 to May 13 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on May 7, Price on May 7, Rise and fall

East China, 8850～8950., 8900～9000.,+ fifty

Shandong Province, 8600～8700., 8500～8600.,- one hundred

The international oil price remained rising as a whole this week, falling in the middle of the week and rising again at the weekend. As of May 12, international crude oil futures were mixed. Us WTI crude oil futures rose, with the settlement price of the main contract reported at US $106.13/barrel, up US $0.42 or 0.4%; Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was US $107.45/barrel, down US $0.06. The market swings left and right under the fundamentals of good supply and bad demand, and the high oil price is deadlocked. The short-term market focus is still on the uncertainty of the epidemic and the implementation of the European oil embargo on Russia.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 24, 8600.,+200

April 12, 8450.,-150

April 27, 8550.,+100

April 28, 8700.,+150

May 5, 8850.,+150

May 7, 8950.,+100

May 13, 9100.,+150

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On May 13, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton, with the implementation of 9150 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8803 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8700 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8900 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, but remained upward as a whole. The external price of pure benzene rose, which provided good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. On the 13th, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton again, and the refinery followed up. Recently, the operating rate of the refinery was low, and the price support mentality was strong. Due to the impact of low price in Shandong, the shipment is slightly blocked and the price is relatively low. At present, the price of domestic mainstream pure benzene is 8500-9100 yuan / ton. The price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 8900 ~ 9000 yuan / ton. At present, the overall demand of the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain is expected to remain strong, and the overall demand is expected to remain strong in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 12, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 800 yuan / ton. Compared with May 7 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 786 yuan / ton), the price increased by 14 yuan / ton, or 1.69%, and compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 763 yuan / ton), the price increased by 37 yuan / ton, or 4.80%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that after the May Day Labor Day, the domestic phosphorus ore market has ushered in a rising operation, supported by tight on-site supply, and the phosphorus ore market has continued to operate at a high level. In the beginning of this week, on the 9th of the week, mining enterprises in some parts of China raised the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore again by about 20-30 yuan / ton, of which the adjusted market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is about 780-830 yuan / ton. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou are short of supply and will not receive orders and quotations for the time being. The adjusted market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is around 790-840 yuan / ton. As of May 12, the market price of 30% phosphorus ore in China was around 800 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 5% in the first ten days of May. At present, the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole continues to operate at a high level, the downstream demand is normal, and the trading atmosphere on the site is good.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in May, the domestic yellow phosphorus market rose and operated. The spot supply of yellow phosphorus was tight, and the quotation was strong. At present, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus market was ok, and the downstream took appropriate goods, mainly just needed. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37833.33 yuan / ton on May 11, up 3.65% compared with May 1 (the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 36500.00 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall supply side support of the domestic phosphorus ore market is still relatively favorable, and the transmission of supply and demand is smooth. The phosphorus ore datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market in China will continue to be stable, medium and strong, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 11): 3228.00 yuan / ton

On May 11, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly, up 82 yuan / ton or 2.61% compared with the price on May 9, and up 49.68% compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have been adjusted at a high level, and the cost support is good. From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand in Xinjiang and southern China is good, the demand of enterprises in Hefei is increased, the plate factory purchases on demand, and the demand of urea industry is sufficient. Buy up rather than buy down, and the trading atmosphere of urea is good. From the perspective of supply: there were many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the supply decreased. Various factors continue to drive up the price of urea. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly, and the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 3250 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose

According to the data of business agency, the market of aluminum fluoride continued to pick up after the festival, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose. As of May 9, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11200 yuan / ton, up 2.28% from 10950 yuan / ton on May 1; After the festival, the aluminum fluoride market picked up and rose.

The price of raw materials rose strongly

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose by 1.08% after the festival; After the festival, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 1.38%. The overall raw material market rose, the cost of aluminum fluoride increased, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride was large.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the raw material market after the festival rise, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increases. Generally speaking, the rising cost is weak in both supply and demand, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 9, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane was 9533.33 yuan / ton this week. The price was mainly stable, the operating rate was normal, the logistics was smooth, the transaction atmosphere was general, and the negotiation atmosphere was stable. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 9100 yuan / ton, mainly maintaining stable operation, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the price fluctuation range of this week was small.

This week, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane is 9533.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 9100 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal. The latest price of the enterprise is: yuan / ton, 9200 yuan / ton of shandongyi Zhongxin New Material Co., Ltd., and 10500 yuan / ton of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd, Wuhan Jixin Yibang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton, and Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton.

Upstream pure benzene: as of May 6, the price of pure benzene continued to rise after the festival, and the price continued to rise. On April 29, the price of pure benzene was 8450-8700 yuan / ton (average price 8590 yuan / ton). On Friday (May 6), the price of pure benzene was 8650-8900 yuan / ton (average price 8750 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 160 yuan / ton, or 1.86%, and 18.08% over the same period last year.

Chemical index: on May 8, the chemical index was 1178 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 15.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 96.99% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business society, the cyclohexane market is expected to operate smoothly in the short term, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7083.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the weekend was 7183.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.41%, and the price increased by 62.89% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a volatile upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly because of the recent sharp rise in raw materials, the passive rise of potassium nitrate manufacturers, the reluctance of traders to sell goods, the general market turnover, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of business agency: the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 7100-7300 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and upward, while the domestic spot market is in short supply, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the supply is in short supply, and the price of potassium chloride has increased slightly. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium carbonate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained high, the cost has remained high, and the market supply is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10325 yuan / ton on May 6.

After the festival, the supply of coal tar in the market is still tight, the overall demand for coal tar is relatively strong, and the overall performance of coal tar is high and volatile. Affected by the aggravation of the imbalance between regional supply and demand, the auction price of new orders in Shanxi market soared. Under the dual pressure of carbon black and raw coal tar transportation, the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises continues to rise, and the price has generally increased recently.

Under the current high cost of carbon black in China, it is comprehensively expected that the overall price of carbon black will remain high.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of April 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from 8443.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha fell.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of April 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 8027.50 yuan / ton, down 4.72% from 8425.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.

On April 28, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall price of refined naphtha fell this month. At present, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8000-8100 yuan / ton. In April, the international crude oil fluctuated, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the impact of public health events in many places in China, the transportation was limited, the shipment of refineries was blocked, and the market transaction was general. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel stocks decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Downstream: toluene fluctuated downward in April. The price of toluene was 7720.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 7320.00 yuan / ton on April 28, down 5.18% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene fluctuated downward in April. The price of mixed xylene was 7860.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 7330.00 yuan / ton on April 28, down 6.74% from the beginning of the month. The price of p-xylene remained stable in April. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 45.31% year-on-year.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil price fluctuates, the naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the terminal demand is not significantly good. At present, the logistics recovery is slow and the market transaction is general. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

In April, the cost push affected the price rise of viscose staple fiber, and the manufacturers actively supported the price, with a monthly price rise range of 800-1000 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, some manufacturers had quoted 15000 yuan / ton of viscose staple fiber, which was also near one year later. Once again, some viscose staple fiber factories quoted the price at 15000 yuan / ton. However, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the trading atmosphere is weak, the start-up rate of human cotton yarn is down, the prosperity is declining, and the price of human cotton yarn is mainly sorted out, with a slight increase. At this stage, the yarn factory mainly tries its best to ship goods, and the stock accumulation is obvious.

Price trend chart of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of business society, as of April 29, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14340 yuan / ton, an increase of 900 yuan / ton compared with April 1, with a monthly increase of 6.70%.

Raw material Market

Viscose fiber industry price rise and fall

According to the analysis of the reasons, in April, the cost was well supported, the market price of raw material dissolved pulp rose, and the price of auxiliary materials rose and fell. The production cost of viscose staple fiber remained at a high level as a whole, the cash flow loss of the industry was obvious, the manufacturer was cautious and was willing to keep the price stable and raise the price.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the spot price of coniferous wood pulp fluctuated higher in April. On April 29, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong was 7120 yuan / ton. At present, the spot price of wood pulp continues to fluctuate at a high level, and the price of wood pulp is supported by favorable international factors. It is expected that the short-term price of wood pulp will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

Cotton yarn Market

Trend chart of cotton yarn price

In April, affected by the rise in the price of viscose staple fiber, the price of rayon yarn followed the rise in the price of viscose staple fiber, but the increase was small. As of April 29, 2022, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 18600 yuan / ton, an increase of 340 yuan / ton or 1.82% over the previous month. The terminal demand has never improved. At present, the finished human cotton yarn has accumulated in the warehouse, the local logistics is not smooth, the spot delivery of the yarn factory is still blocked, and the price negotiation is high.

Future forecast

Textile terminal demand continues to be flat and difficult to improve, but under the pressure of rising costs, viscose staple fiber manufacturers are difficult to make concessions, the mentality of upstream and downstream tends to be cautious, the logistics is still blocked, and the physical inventory is still rising slightly. With the rise in the price of viscose staple fiber factories at the end of April, promoting the early transaction of some just needed replenishment orders in the market, business analysts expect that the price of short-term viscose staple fiber may be mainly finishing, and the price operation range is 14300-14600 yuan / ton.