According to the data of business agency, as of June 26, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6690.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.15% from 6700.00 yuan / ton on June 20.

On June 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 135.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.15% from 135.70, the highest point in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 194.03% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business news agency, as of June 26, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6650 yuan / ton and 6750 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6700 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6800 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was tightly supported. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 22, Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased by 652000 barrels, reaching a nine week high of 8.61 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell by 600000 barrels to a two-week low of 15212000 barrels; Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 1154000 barrels, a two-week high of 21348000 barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: international crude oil continued to fall, domestic ship fuel market costs fell, and suppliers’ shipments were blocked; The terminal demand of the market is general, the receiving of goods is limited, the overall transaction in the market is light, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6700 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6800 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6400 yuan / ton on June 20, and 6316 yuan / ton on June 24. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 1.30% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell this week. The domestic epidemic has weakened, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin has increased. The price of raw materials fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. Downstream demand was acceptable, bargain hunting and on-demand procurement, and trading and investment were improved. As of June 24, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6300 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast was about 6300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong was about 6150 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the overall market of liquid wax decreased this week. Liquid wax follows the change of crude oil market, and the trend is mainly downward. This week, the price of liquid chlorine fell, the demand on the floor decreased, the transaction volume was low, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their load.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business agency, at present, the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials has fallen and the cost support has weakened. The operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is increased, and the supply is increased. The downstream demand began to follow up, and the floor trading volume was acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the low price of chlorinated paraffin will be mainly adjusted and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1523 yuan / ton on June 13, and 1456 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 4.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. At present, the floor trading is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the market trend of ammonium sulfate is declining. The domestic and international market demand is weakened, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is reduced. Urea prices continued to fall this week, which was bad for ammonium sulfate Market. Enterprises cut down ammonium sulfate for shipment. Some caprolactam enterprises have been overhauled, and the supply of caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate has been reduced. As of June 17, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1480 yuan, and that in Hebei is about 1420 yuan / ton. For domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong is about 1500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory price in Shanxi is about 1450 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The price of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, dropped, and the pressure on the cost of compound fertilizer weakened. At present, the new orders of compound fertilizer are limited, and the demand is general. In the short term, the market of compound fertilizer will be adjusted slightly at a high level.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulphate analyst of the business agency believes that the recent ammonium sulphate market continues to be depressed, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Urea prices fell, the demand side did not follow up, and there were many negative factors. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1254 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1258 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly by 0.32%, and the price rose 140.77% compared with the same period last year. On June 19, the caustic soda commodity index was 181.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.82% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 178.01% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable and dynamic. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1180-1280 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1250-1450 yuan / ton. As a whole, the supply of the enterprise was not started, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated, and the downstream enterprises mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise delivers goods in general, has a heavy wait-and-see mood on the site, and has limited downstream receiving capacity.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 24th week of 2022 (6.13-6.17), there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 0 kind of commodities rising or falling to zero in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising are: light soda ash (0.34%), caustic soda (0.32%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-4.35%), calcium carbide (-2.12%) and PVC (-2.00%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.56%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidated and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious. Most of the alumina is purchased on demand. The overall demand is limited, and there is a possibility of price reduction. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent consolidation of caustic soda will be dominated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 10 to 17, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 18020 yuan / ton to 18180 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.89%, a month on month price increase of 1.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.94%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 20:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18500-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

East China, 18700-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

South China, 18500-18600 yuan / ton, 18000 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell. The main factors were the decline of crude oil, the weakness of the external market, and the superposition of the port inventory to stop the decline, resulting in a change in profit mentality and an increase in market shipments.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

Aniline: at present, the domestic aniline high price is still supported by the raw material pure benzene, the downstream just needs to follow up, and the profit transmission of the industrial chain is OK.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, and downstream demand is expected to be further opened. In the future, the analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly high and volatile.

DOTP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of June 20, the price of DOTP was 11487.50 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with 12200 yuan / ton on June 12 last weekend, it fell by 5.84%. This week, the decline of raw material prices accumulated the off-season demand, the decline of DOTP cost and insufficient demand, and the DOTP market fell violently.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the trading agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell violently this week, and the overall isooctanol market fell. As of June 20, the isooctanol price was 10733.33 yuan / ton, down 12.74% from the isooctanol price of 12300.00 yuan / ton on June 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

PTA prices fell back from high level this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high PTA price fell this week, and the overall PTA market fell. As of June 20, the PTA price was 7200.00 yuan / ton, down 6.75% from 7720.73 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The high crude oil price fell back, PTA price fell in shock this week, DOTP cost support weakened, DOTP positive momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, PTA price fell in shock, the demand in the off-season was insufficient, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell and the demand was insufficient. The downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 17, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas in China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 976 yuan / ton), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 6.83%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to hit a high level, the on-site phosphorus ore supply continued to be tight, and the market focus continued to rise. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, and only a small amount of inventory was shipped out. The tight situation of spot circulation of high-end phosphorus ore in the market has not improved much. As of June 17 this weekend, In Guizhou, the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 50-70 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore of Guizhou and Hubei large mining enterprises is mainly for their own use after production, and there is no external sales source. Most of the enterprises that can supply phosphate ore also have a strong reluctance to sell, and pre orders are mainly discussed.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market first fell and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price mainly operated downward, and at the end of the week, the market faced a slight rebound. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 17, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38166.67 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (38666.67 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.28%.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, with years of mining, China’s phosphate rock resources have been continuously reduced. With good downstream demand, the tight market supply situation is difficult to be greatly alleviated in the short term. The phosphate rock datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 16, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 11266 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the ex factory price of butanone was 11900 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 634 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.32%. Compared with June 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10433 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 833 yuan / ton, or 7.99%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the overall high level of domestic butanone market fell this week, with a decline of about 5.32% in the week. At the beginning of this week, in the face of the current high market situation of butanone, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was aggravated, the demand was cautious, the trading atmosphere in the floor was light, and the demand support was loose. Under the influence of this, the market focus of butanone fell, the factory offer was lowered continuously, the traders’ quotations were mostly in line with the market, and the market price continued to decline. As of June 16, the ex factory price of butanone was around 10200-10400 yuan / ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan / ton in the week. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is still low, and the downstream is mainly preparing goods on demand and negotiating with actual orders.

Upstream, on June 15, the domestic liquefied gas market weakened as a whole, and the price of Shandong civil gas market continued to fall, with a downward range of about 50 yuan / ton. In the morning, the international crude oil price fell in a bad market mentality. In addition, in the current traditional off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the civil price of liquefied gas will continue to be weak in the short term.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the supply side of butanone field has given some support to the market. In June, the field start-up was low, and the overall pressure on the supply side was small, but the overall performance of the demand side was average. The butanone data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

The domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded strongly. At present, the external quotation of major manufacturers is stable, and the supply is reduced, which has boosted the mentality of trade market operators. Subsequently, the quotation of traders is stable and upward. Coupled with the current low inventory at the social level, the market continues to push up. However, the actual transaction price needs to be further followed up.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 6 to 10, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 17000 yuan / ton to 18020 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 6.00%, a month on month price increase of 0.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.42%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 10:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

South China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong, 18000 yuan / ton, 17600-18000 yuan / ton

East China, 18000 yuan / ton, 17700-18000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders by June 10:

Raw material pure benzene: the main factors supporting the price rise of pure benzene include the rise of external market, the decline of domestic port inventory, the restart of downstream automobile transportation pure benzene consumer enterprises, the rise of styrene and other factors.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

 
Aniline: at present, the high cost has supported the increase of aniline for many times. However, Shanghai Lianheng has a maintenance plan in late June. If the maintenance plan is implemented, part of the contract volume will be released to the market, which has a certain negative impact on the market.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business community:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

Monthly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

Weekly K column chart of MDI domestic production price aggregated by business club:

List of rise and fall of product prices in the MDI industrial chain of business community aggregation:

List of price rise and fall of products in the sector of MDI aggregated by business club:

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, but with the gradual easing of market supply and demand. In the future, the analysts of the business community aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is dominated by shock consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8650 yuan / ton on June 12, up 2.11% from 8471.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 5.21% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the Dragon Boat Festival, the PVC market continued to rise. The futures rose to above 8800, driving the spot market prices to rise synchronously. Prices in many places in China rose for several days. However, the atmosphere of high price transaction was general. The downstream product industry started poorly, the real estate sector was still weak. At the same time, the export sector weakened, and the demand side recovered less than expected. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide was lowered, and the cost side support fell, which was bad for many parties, PVC prices stopped rising and turned to falling in the middle and late weeks of the week, and the market became weak. By the end of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4050 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8400-8850 yuan / ton. At present, the external price is quoted at USD 1190 / ton in CFR China, USD 1285 / ton in CFR Southeast Asia, and USD 1380 / ton in CFR India.

It can be seen from the weekly increase and decrease from March 21, 2022 to June 12, 2022 that domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle. The maximum increase was in the week of March 28 and the maximum decrease was in the week of May 23. The overall fluctuation in the near future is not large.

For international crude oil, the oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth. On June 10, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $120.67/barrel, down $0.84 or 0.69%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $122.01/barrel, down US $1.06 or 0.86%.

Ethylene, as of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1026-1036 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at USD 1677-1687 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at USD 1423-1431 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the 9th, the price was 662-680 yuan / ton. This week, the overall trend of ethylene in the external market was rising first and then falling. It was mainly dominated by European and American ethylene. The actual transaction was poor and the price fluctuated and fell.

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide increased. However, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid June.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current demand has recovered, but it is less than expected. After the PVC price rises, the market trading is poor. It is expected that the PVC market will fluctuate and decline in the short term.