Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market was stable in the previous week, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted in a narrow range. As of July 11, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12800 yuan / ton, up or down -2.66% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and consolidated last week. Affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost was the dominant force. The market price of pure benzene in China fell to 9235 yuan / ton, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the inventory of enterprises were low, which restrained the decline of styrene. The transaction in the styrene market was general, and the spot price fluctuated slightly.

The price of acrylonitrile was mainly deadlocked last week. Under the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, the downstream rigid demand is dominated, and the price focus of propylene is still on the downward trend in the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down. The market is in a stalemate due to the long short game. Propylene market is expected to run at a low level in the near future.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market was adjusted at a low level. Due to the early increase in export sales of northeast sources and the restart of devices in Shandong, the market expectation was short, and the poor transaction dragged the supplier’s price downward. Then, under the centralized influence of some supply side news, the mentality of merchants slightly strengthened, while the high cost of goods in East China affected the strong offer intention, but the downstream rigid demand boost was limited, and some high price transactions were deadlocked.

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a general trend. Previously, the price fluctuation of international crude oil was intensified due to the interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, which was bad for the oil and chemical industry chain, and the cost support of ABS was poor. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants cut prices and took orders, stimulating some trading after giving up profits, and the ABS spot price stabilized.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell narrowly last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. The domestic spot supply is abundant, and the demand follow-up is poor. Recently, the spot price on the floor has fallen to the equilibrium point, and the current market is sideways. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 59841.67 yuan / ton, down 2.89% from 61625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 13.12% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past three months, copper prices have risen by 3 and fell by 9. Recently, copper prices have fallen continuously.

Macro: the dollar soared to a 20-year high, pessimism broke out, and the CNN fear greed index was only 21, and the market was in a state of extreme panic. The manufacturing PMI of Europe and the United States in June has been released, recording 53 and 52.1 respectively, both lower than that of May. New orders in the United States fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2020, only 49.2. Waller and Brad, the two most hawkish decision makers of the Federal Reserve, supported an additional 75 basis points increase in interest rates this month to curb inflation, while downplaying concerns about the U.S. economy heading for recession.

Fundamentals: in terms of supply, the interference at the copper mine end in South America intensified in the middle and early June, but it has basically eased towards the end of the month. In the week of July 1, cspt held an online meeting and decided that the spot TC guide price of copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2022 was $80 / dry ton, unchanged from the second quarter. In terms of demand, in the off-season of consumption, the operating rate of downstream enterprises is lower than the normal level in previous years. As the price fell relatively violently before, the downstream enterprises were afraid of falling and refused to adopt seriously.

To sum up, the domestic supply center is expected to rise, and the smelting enthusiasm is still high; The recovery intensity of domestic consumption is weak, and downstream procurement has not improved due to the sharp decline in prices, although the current domestic inventory is still low. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate at a low level of about 60000 yuan / ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 11390 yuan / ton on June 1, and 10770 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid fell by 5.44% this month.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 11200 yuan / ton on June 1, and 10733 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China fell 4.17% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market fell in June, with 85 industrial grade phosphoric acid falling by 5.44% in the month, and the market focus fell. In the first ten days of June, the phosphoric acid market was temporarily stable, and from the middle of June, the phosphoric acid market began to decline to the end of the month. Due to the high price decline of yellow phosphorus as raw material this month, the cost support is weakened, and the downstream demand is generally followed up, the price of phosphoric acid is lowered. The confidence in the venue is insufficient, and the industry is cautious to wait and see. As of June 30, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10770 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10733 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 10300-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10250-10400 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 11000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this month. The market price of 30% phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 920-970 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, with only a small amount of goods for external sales. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholders and customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market, yellow phosphorus market price fell this month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market price of yellow phosphorus is relatively stable, mainly at a high price, and the shipment situation is acceptable. In the second week of June, there was a short-term decline in the lower price competition of yellow phosphorus. Considering the cost pressure, the manufacturer’s quotation rebounded again. In the third and fourth weeks of June, downstream and traders were more cautious about the supply of high price goods. They stayed on the sidelines, mainly purchasing at low prices, and the price of yellow phosphorus fell again. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of business agency, the price of phosphoric acid market fell with the support of cost in June, and the raw material yellow phosphorus market was poor, and the support was weakened. The downstream is resistant to high priced phosphoric acid, and operates cautiously under the downward trend, mainly with a small amount of replenishment. In the absence of positive market conditions, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term, and the price will continue to decline.

On June 29, the crude benzene commodity index was 121.79, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.62% from the highest point of 131.84 in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 298.79% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In June 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated upward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 7065 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7805 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 10.47%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton on June 27, 2022, and 9600 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9350 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9353 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9400 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quote 9450 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on June 29, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $109.78 / barrel, down $1.98 or 1.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $112.45 / barrel, down $1.35 or 1.2%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was negative, and the inventory of refined oil products increased; And market concerns about the risk of a global recession weighed on oil prices.

In the first half of this month, the trend of crude oil rose as a whole. After the price fell in the second half of this month, the price rebounded slightly at the end of the month again. The trend of pure benzene basically followed the fluctuation of crude oil. In the first half of this month, supported by the upward trend of crude oil and the rising price of pure benzene, Sinopec continuously raised the ex factory price of pure benzene, boosting market confidence, local refining enterprises followed suit, and the price of pure benzene went all the way. After entering the latter ten days, crude oil and pure benzene in the outer market fell broadly, with bad fundamentals and declining support for the industrial chain. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene to 9600 yuan / ton for two consecutive times, and local refining enterprises also lowered the price of pure benzene one after another. At the same time, the inventory of pure benzene in East China began to increase, and there was still a plan to accumulate inventory in the follow-up. Under the influence of multiple bad news, the price of pure benzene market continued to decline, while the downstream styrene also continued to weaken, the overall performance of the market mentality was poor, and the overall decline of the industrial chain was obvious. Near the end of the month, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the lower reaches, adding to the slight rise in crude oil and outer disk pure benzene at the end of the month. As of the press release, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

In terms of commencement: the overall commencement of coking enterprises in the first half of this month was relatively high. With the two rounds of increase in coke prices, enterprises started actively, and the tar supply was stable. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the coke was dragged down by downstream demand, and the first round of increase and decrease of 300 yuan / ton was started. After reversing the previous increase, the profit of coking enterprises was damaged, and the operating rate fell significantly as a whole. Many enterprises took the initiative to limit production, and the output of related by-products decreased accordingly.

Crude benzene was significantly affected by the industrial chain this month. As of the end of the month, the price of pure benzene and crude oil rebounded slightly. The price of pure benzene was still at a high position, and the supply side expected a certain decline in the follow-up. The construction of downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises was relatively stable recently. Although the price fell recently, the overall price was still at a high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start construction was acceptable, and the demand for crude benzene remained, In the situation of slightly tight supply, it is expected that the subsequent high price oscillation of crude benzene will be dominant, but considering the downstream profits, there may be some room for downward adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic glycine price continued to decline in June. The average price of industrial glycine stabilized at 19666 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 18666 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.06%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, the domestic glycine market continued to decline in June, and the market price was uncertain. As of the end of the month, the mainstream market quotation was around 18000-19000 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the maintenance enterprises resumed driving, and the market supply returned to normal. In terms of demand, the downstream demand is general, and the orders of old customers are mainly, especially glyphosate. The demand is not as expected, and the procurement is relatively weak.

Demand: the downstream glyphosate market continued to fall slightly, and the price of glyphosate technical drug was around 65000 yuan / ton by the end of the month. The overall market is weak and stable. Due to the stable operation of foreign glyphosate devices, the domestic procurement is not as expected, the inventory in the domestic market has increased, the price has been reduced slightly, and traders are reluctant to sell, so they are cautious about the future market.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Glycine analysts of business agency believe that, on the whole, the glycine market is mainly restricted by the downstream glyphosate market. There is no obvious positive signal in the glyphosate market, and the glycine price remains weak and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 7996.25 yuan / ton last Thursday and 7348.75 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 8.1% in seven days.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline this week. Downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods. They can take goods as they are used. Rigid demand is the main factor, and the delivery and transaction of PVC spot market is not good. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7550 yuan / ton.

International crude oil. On June 29, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $109.78 / barrel, down $1.98 or 1.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $112.45 / barrel, down $1.35 or 1.2%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was negative, and the inventory of refined oil products increased; And market concerns about the risk of a global recession weighed on oil prices.

Ethylene, internationally, on June 29, the ethylene market in Asia, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $981 / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation is 1101 US dollars / ton. On June 29, the US ethylene market was $561 / ton. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market rose slightly. There is sufficient spot supply of ethylene in the domestic market, which depresses the market atmosphere, and many operators wait and see.

Calcium carbide, as of the 30th, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers of calcium carbide was 3800 yuan / ton. The factory price of calcium carbide manufacturers continued to fall slightly this week. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in early July.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, domestic demand is weak and market transactions are poor. The downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the operating rate is not high. However, the futures market price rose slightly today, which was good for the confidence of the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will stabilize in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 1, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 11866 yuan / ton, which was 934 yuan / ton lower than the price on June 26, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol was 12800 yuan / ton), a decrease of 7.29%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (6.27-7.1), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole showed a downward trend. On June 27 at the beginning of the week, Shandong propylene glycol factory reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in this factory fell to about 11700 yuan / ton. Some other factories also reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by a narrow range of about 200 yuan / ton. Propylene glycol is operating downward as a whole. The propylene glycol market was weak in the middle of the week. The downstream demand side showed general performance. The trading atmosphere on the floor was cold and the wait-and-see mood was strong. On July 1, the propylene glycol market fell again, and some factories lowered the ex factory price of propylene glycol again by about 500 yuan / ton. As of the end of this week (July 1), the domestic ex factory price of propylene glycol was around 11000-12500 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 7% during the week. At present, the on-site transactions are mainly negotiated, and the overall transactions of new orders are general.

The upstream propylene oxide market fell in June. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene fell, the cost support was insufficient, the supply side was stable, the factory inventory was controllable, and the downstream reduction was followed up. The market was gradually under pressure, and the price stalemate of propylene oxide weakened. In the second half of the month, the price of raw propylene fell, factory shipments were flat, and some devices fluctuated, but the supply side was abundant, downstream demand was light, the reduction and price reduction followed up, and the purchase mentality was cautious, and the price of propylene oxide continued to decline.

Future trend analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is quiet, the factory mainly makes profits and ships, and the downstream demand for propylene glycol is still cautious. The propylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple ranges, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8353.33 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 8388.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha fell.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8147.50 yuan / ton, down 1.72% from 8290.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of ground refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.

On June 30, the naphtha commodity index was 103.10, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 15.24% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 144.08% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in June, the price of ground refined naphtha increased first and then decreased. At present, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8100-8300 yuan / ton. In June, the international crude oil fell in shock, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of June 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 580000 barrels to a two-week low of 20.768 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory increased by 17000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 15.229 million barrels; Intermediate distillate stocks fell by 680000 barrels to a three week low of 7.93 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated in June. In early June, the oil ban imposed by the European Union on Russia was delayed, and the supply was tight, and the expectation remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices, and crude oil prices rise. In late June, the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was tightly supported. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. At the end of June, crude oil futures closed up for three consecutive days, hitting a two-week high, as the market questioned the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production significantly, as well as the supply concerns caused by the turmoil in Ecuador and Libya.

Downstream: the price of toluene rose rapidly in the first ten days of June, hitting a new high in the year. It began to decline weakly in the middle of the year and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 8090 yuan / ton on June 1 and 8860 yuan / ton on June 28, up 9.52% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of June, mixed xylene soared, and the price quickly climbed to the highest level of the year. The trend began to turn around and fall in the middle of the month. On June 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the price was 8390 yuan / ton, up 2.57% from the beginning of the month. In June, the price trend of paraxylene rose first and then declined. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10000 yuan / ton, down 1.96% from the price of 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, in June, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the naphtha cost support was limited. At present, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the finished oil was weak downward. The naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the market trading was cautious, and the refineries cut prices and shipped goods. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.

In June, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell, with shock consolidation. The fluctuation range at the beginning and end of the month was not large. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and 2612 yuan / ton at the end of June. The price fell by 0.19% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 3.78% and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of June 29:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi region, Mainstream: 2430-2450 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2680 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, Mainstream Negotiation: 2640-2700 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference about 2590-2650 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2620-2700 yuan / ton

Henan region, The shipment price of some enterprises is 2600 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market rose first and then stabilized, with narrow fluctuations. The continuous high price of raw coal has led to a good atmosphere in the whole industrial chain. At the same time, the high volatility of the crude oil market has also led to the rise of the chemical market on the macro level. However, after the lower receiving price rose slightly, the rising oil price led to a shortage of return transport capacity, and there is still room for freight to rise. The demand side performance was average, and the methanol spot turned to be stable and wait-and-see in the middle and late weeks of the week.

In the middle of May, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling, mainly because the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

In late June, the domestic methanol market fell in a narrow range. The raw coal market dragged down the atmosphere of methanol futures, and the spot market fell in a narrow range. On the supply side, the production enterprises in the main production areas have been overhauled, showing some positive results, but the market sentiment is poor. The pick-up volume of the social warehouse is still low, and the inventory continues to accumulate.

The price of products in the methanol industry chain is mixed, and the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol is stable; The price of Zhonghua East glacial acetic acid, a downstream product, fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong fell the most.

In the external market, as of the closing on June 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 374.00-375.00/t. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.50-102.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 370.00-370.50 euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 374.00-375.00 USD / ton ., USD 0 / ton

Europe and America, US Gulf, 101.50-102.00 cents / gallon ., 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 370.00-370.50 euros / ton .,- 2 EUR / ton

The production cost of methanol has been loosened. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to decline in the short term.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price fell sharply in June. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 72236.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price fell to 64211.67 yuan / ton, an overall decline of 11.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.98%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in June, the spot price of copper was mostly higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to the LME inventory, the LME copper inventory in June was lower than that in May, at a relatively high level for 1-4 months, and there was a base at the end of the month.

Macro aspect: in June, the Federal Reserve of the United States (fed/ fed) took historic measures to combat inflation, raising interest rates by 75 basis points. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States fell in June than expected, indicating that the demand for industrial products shrank significantly in June, intensifying the market’s concern about the economic downturn. The “copper oil ratio” has continued to decline and has fallen to a low in recent five years, indicating that the risk of economic recession has intensified. On the whole, under the conditions of tight liquidity and continuous fermentation of economic recession concerns, the nonferrous metals sector has fallen sharply and the copper price has also dropped sharply.

Supply: globally, the global refined copper output recovered rapidly after the outbreak. According to the data released by ICSG, in the first quarter of 2022, the global refined copper output increased by 2.7% year-on-year, reaching 6.286 million tons, a record. ICSG also predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of global refined copper production in 2022 and 2023 would reach 4.3% and 3.6% respectively. China has a large copper smelting capacity. It is estimated that the crude refining capacity will reach 9.7 million tons and the refining capacity will reach 14.55 million tons in 2022. In terms of refined copper output, from January to may 2022, due to refinery maintenance, cathode copper output was almost the same as that of the same period last year.

Demand: from the perspective of the pace of resumption of work and production, the downstream demand has not given better feedback. The downstream operation of some copper is still lower than that of the same period last year, indicating that the market confidence is still insufficient. In addition to the increase in copper consumption brought about by new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation, copper consumption in traditional power grids, home appliances such as air conditioners, traditional automobiles, construction (including real estate and infrastructure), light industry, electronic communications and other industries decreased.

Based on the above, in June, copper prices fell sharply under the conditions of loose copper supply and weak consumption. In the second half of the year, as the new overseas copper mines are put into operation or reach production capacity, the supply of copper mines will continue to rise in the second half of the year. In addition to the Fed’s interest rate hike, the eurozone, the UK and a number of emerging economies are raising interest rates, which means that global liquidity is shrinking, the economy is slowing down and copper consumption demand is weakening, which is a high probability event. It is expected that the copper price in the second half of the year will continue to fluctuate weakly.