Last week (July 18-24), viscose staple fiber continued to run in a stalemate, prices fell, factory inventories increased, and the market was facing downward pressure. Manufacturers actively support prices, most of them offer stable prices, and most of them say they would rather reduce production than reduce prices. Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the method of reducing production speed, so as to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and rising inventory, and delay their own pulp inventory consumption. The number of factories signing orders was limited, and the production and sales were weak, which began to fall into a stalemate. Most cotton mills believed that the price of viscose staple fiber was difficult to maintain the current situation. Downstream cotton yarn prices fell significantly, popularity was relatively low, trading was light, and the overall inventory of the industry was still rising.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of July 24, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber was 15580 yuan / ton, and the price fell. The price of cotton yarn fell significantly, (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) the average ex factory price was 18866 yuan / ton, down 234 yuan / ton from last week, a weekly decline of 1.22%.

According to the analysis of the reasons, the cost support is not reduced, the market price of raw material dissolving pulp is high, and the production cost of viscose staple fiber is generally maintained at a high level. However, the demand for cotton yarn from downstream people is light, showing a situation of price without market, the factory inventory increases, the factory mentality is cautious, and the willingness to stabilize the price is strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions, but the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, the trading volume has always been general, and the downstream order taking volume has always been general, and the whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber showed a trend of price without market, and factory inventory increased. Business analysts predicted that the price of viscose staple fiber would face downward pressure.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable. On July 22, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the quotation at the beginning of the week, and the price increased by 0.66% month on month.

quotations analysis

The cryolite market remained stable at a high level this week, and the quotations of major enterprises in Henan Province operated smoothly according to their own shipments. At present, the main factors affecting prices are still raw materials. The supply of goods is tight, the price is high, and the superimposed market coal and gas prices are high. Cryolite enterprise manufacturers have great production pressure, enterprise inventories are tight, cryolite prices remain high, downstream demand is stable, and enterprise shipments are relatively smooth, The operator’s mentality is to wait and see. As of July 22, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, and the range price was temporarily stable.

The upstream soda ash is weak in operation. As of July 22, the average market price was about 2870 yuan / ton. The price fell slightly during the week, down 0.70% from last weekend. The downstream wait-and-see mentality is dominated, and there is still resistance to high prices. The demand is weak, the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high, the manufacturers negotiate to ship, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the soda ash price fluctuates slightly downward.

On the downstream side, the aluminum market improved this week. On July 22, the aluminum price was about 18000 yuan / ton, up 3.24% during the week. During the week, domestic aluminum ingots and rods were still removed from the warehouse, but the extent of removal slowed down. At present, the total domestic inventory is still lower than that of the same period last year. The domestic aluminum inventory pressure is not large, the market supply and demand performance is deadlocked, and the aluminum market is volatile.

Aftermarket forecast

Domestic cryolite manufacturers have great production pressure, raw material shortage and high fuel costs, which support the high operation of cryolite prices. The short-term downstream demand is stable, and the manufacturer’s shipment is OK. There is no other news released on the floor. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to operate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of July 21, and the white carbon black was mainly in stable operation. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. This week, the overall market of white carbon black was mainly in stable operation, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general, and the overall market was stable, with stable trend and balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply side was normal, and it was mainly just in need of procurement.

The market price of silica has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Upstream hydrochloric acid: the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined slightly, with general cost support. The market of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened.

Chemical industry index: on July 20, the chemical industry index was 1031 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 26.36% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 72.41% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The silica analyst of business agency believes that the trend of rubber grade silica is stable in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information, and master commodity prices).

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and some spot prices fell. As of July 15, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5450 yuan / ton, up or down -2.10% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to operate weakly in the early stage. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises fell, and the overall operating rate fell to 40%, but the on-site supply was affected by the export policy, but the pressure increased. In terms of potassium chloride, the potassium price of domestic enterprises is weak and stable, the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate is general, the arrival of border trade surged in the early stage, and it is still in transit, and the price of imported goods is weak, which affects the loose spot offer and weakens the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market quotation of potassium sulfate fell. In terms of demand, the demand in Northeast China weakened, and there were few new orders. Traders responded that the trading was general, and the on-site inventory rose.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the potassium chloride market continued to decline. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, the follow-up of the demand side is poor, the export of supply side is blocked, and the pressure of domestic supply sources increases. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to fall in the short term due to the increase in supply and the decline in cost.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10800 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a slight increase of 0.93%.

At present, the domestic price of activated carbon has increased slightly. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; The transaction in the activated carbon market has warmed up, market inquiries have increased, the quotation part has increased slightly, and the transaction in the downstream market has improved slightly. We should focus on the market transaction.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared through a series of processes. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon may be dominated by strong shocks. Please contact the manufacturer for specific prices, mainly through negotiation.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell weakly this week

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market fell this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell. As of July 18, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from 11075 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The industry chain market rebounded and adjusted, and the domestic aluminum fluoride market may pick up.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable this week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and stabilized this week. The raw material market has stabilized, the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized, the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the downward pressure remains.

Cryolite prices rebounded this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite rebounded this week, and the cryolite market consolidated. As of July 18, the price of cryolite was 7650 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from the price fluctuation at the end of last week. The price of cryolite stopped falling and rose, and the demand for cryolite was consolidated.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and fluorite has stabilized this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has temporarily stabilized; Cryolite prices stopped falling and rebounded, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride temporarily stabilized, and the export orders of aluminum fluoride showed a trend of improvement. Generally speaking, the cost tends to stabilize, and the demand tends to improve. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will pick up in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market continued to decline this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8316.67 yuan / ton, up or down -3.39% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose this week. Recently, due to the good digestion of propylene inventory in the field, the supply has narrowed, and enterprises and merchants have increased their sales. However, the current downstream rigid demand is not strong, and it is more resistant to high price supply. In addition, the weakness of raw material end and the gradual cooling of trading have hindered the rise of propylene price. The market stabilized after rising this week, and it is expected that the propylene market may turn into a weak operation in the near future.

Propylene prices rose, but crude oil fell sharply in the early stage due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support was weak this week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises was adjusted this week, and the real-time loss capacity was expanded, but the current supply pressure is still large. The inventory digestion of enterprises and midstream is not as good as last week, and the inventory position continues to rise, and is at the high position over the years. In terms of demand, the downstream factories of wire drawing materials purchase and follow-up are biased towards just need to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy on bargain hunting and have a strong resistance to high price sources. Traders’ shipments are in line with the market, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has decreased by a narrow margin. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials may continue to be weak and adjusted.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 15, the spot price of domestic fiber PP gradually fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8216.67 yuan / ton, up or down -4.27% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of -4.09%. This week, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, continued to drop, and the demand and operation of end enterprises continued on the whole. Large enterprises just needed to take goods to maintain production, while the load of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased or even stopped production. The consumption of products maintains the off-season mode, and the replenishment operation tends to maintain production. The demand for medical fiber products has also cooled, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant, and the market momentum is reduced. It is expected that the fiber material may remain weak in the off-season market in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of July 15, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9566.67 yuan / ton, up or down -0.35% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased, and the epidemic prevention pressure continues to fluctuate. However, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased, which does not significantly support the spot price. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP will maintain a weak operation along with other PP varieties.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell this week, the rise of raw material propylene market was blocked, the decline of international crude oil intensified, and the cost side support of PP weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises expands slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. It is expected that the PP market may continue to be weak in the near future.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 8th, the average price in the domestic market was 25333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.18% on a weekly basis. This week, the magnesium ingot price was weak. After the price fell at the beginning of the week, it has been running steadily, and the magnesium ingot Market shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing.

Supply and demand

Under the pressure of the traditional off-season from July to August, the downstream purchase intention is low, and the overall transaction performance is general. Considering the cost of magnesium plants, the current magnesium price has been at the edge of the cost line, and the plants still maintain cautious shipments, and some do not offer prices temporarily.

Upstream and downstream

On July 8, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 7800-8000 yuan / ton, the price of ferrosilicon fell below the cost price, and some manufacturers began to take the initiative to reduce production and guarantee prices. The futures market fluctuated at a low level, and the bidding price in July was lower than the market expectation, which suppressed the spot price of ferrosilicon. At the same time, the price of blue carbon fell, and the production pressure of magnesium plants became more obvious.

The downstream magnesium alloy and magnesium powder are weak, and the production of magnesium alloy enterprises is relatively stable. Due to the weak downstream demand for magnesium powder, the production and operation of magnesium powder enterprises are weak.

Aftermarket forecast

Raw material ferrosilicon is weak, the price of blue carbon is down, and the operating pressure of magnesium plant is increasing; At the same time, as the price approaches the cost line and the factory operation in summer, the cost pressure of magnesium plants also increases, and the possibility of magnesium ingot prices continuing to fall is small. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the magnesium market has continued to operate under pressure in recent two months under the current situation of weak demand and the absence of good news in the market. Business analysts believe that magnesium ingot prices may be deadlocked in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market continued to decline last week, and the decline of spot prices of various brands was reduced. As of July 11, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 20066.67 yuan / ton, up or down -1.63% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell last week. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1230-1260 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has fallen, the cost support is poor, the formaldehyde market has fallen under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. It is hard to maintain the rigid demand for procurement. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market has weakened slightly.

The upstream formaldehyde market fell, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the load of some domestic POM enterprises fell last week, but the on-site supply was abundant, and the pressure reduction effect of lost capacity on the supply side was limited. At present, the inventory of manufacturers and midstream enterprises is high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM in the field is slow, and the situation is in the off-season mode. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly taking small orders, and have a heavy wait-and-see mood. The main bad news on the floor was the high inventory caused by insufficient demand. The mentality of merchants was general, and the offer was mainly reduced with the enterprises.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market continued to decline last week, the upstream formaldehyde market fell, and the cost support of POM weakened. The load of POM industry decreased, and the supply side remained abundant. The consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the POM price may fall due to the inventory of Gaozhu and give priority to profit.

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, with sporadic small single trading. With the restart of some maintenance devices, the support of the market supply side weakened. The terminal demand continues to be light, and the enthusiasm for construction in many downstream industries is not high.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from July 4 to 11, the domestic BDO market price fell from 19800 yuan / ton to 17880 yuan / ton, with a weekly price drop of 9.70%, a month on month price drop of 20.46%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.02%. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 16700-17300 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 19000-20000 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 17000-17300 yuan / ton; Barrel negotiation 19000-20000 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: after the maintenance of Erdos chemical, the supply of commercial calcium carbide decreased, but the downstream fatigue is difficult to support the sharp rebound of calcium carbide. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the overall operation is still finishing.

In terms of methanol, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, the marginal demand is weakened, and the short-term methanol market is mainly weak and declining. BDO cost side support weakened.

The downstream PTMEG spandex and gbl-nmp industrial chain, PBT and PBAT industries all fell sharply driven by weak terminal demand and downward raw material prices.

With the restart of the maintenance device, the supply will increase, while the overall operation of the downstream is low, the willingness to purchase is not strong, and the price of raw materials is seriously depressed. BDO analysts of business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline.