According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 8657.14 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 8392.86 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.05%. The price dropped by 3.67% compared with the same period last year.

styrene

This week, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene is mainly low, and the price will continue to fall this week. The main reason is that the cost is falling steadily, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market is constantly moving downward, and the decline is large, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene inventory is high, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction is poor, and the spot price of styrene is volatile and low.

In terms of raw materials and crude oil, the trend of crude oil is unstable and the support of cost is weak. This week, the price of pure benzene fell broadly. On August 12, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8200 yuan / ton (average price: 8042 yuan / ton), and on Friday (August 19), the price of pure benzene was 7500-7650 yuan / ton (average price: 7542 yuan / ton), with an average price of 6.22% lower than last week and an increase of 0.16% over the same period last year. In the early stage, the shutdown and maintenance devices were restarted in succession, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased; Imported cargoes are concentrated in the port. The inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons compared with last week, and the port is gradually accumulating. During the week, the price of pure benzene fell continuously.

On the downstream side, the rise and fall of the three major downstream of styrene were mixed this week. This week, the price of PS was weak. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 11616 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10850 yuan / ton, down 6.60% and 0.76% compared with the same period of the year. The support of PS cost is not good, some PS petrochemical manufacturers reduce, the overall transaction is weak, and the supply increase leads to the price weakening.

At the beginning of this week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11375 yuan / ton, and the price was stable. At present, the cash (including tax) of ordinary materials of large factories in East China is 10150-10400 yuan / ton, and that of small factories is 10150-10200 yuan / ton; The cash (tax included) of ordinary materials of South China manufacturers is 10400-10600 yuan / ton; The ordinary materials of Shandong manufacturers leave the factory at about 10000 yuan / ton including tax.

ABS market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12050 yuan / ton; at the end of the week, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 11950 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.80%. At present, it is in the off-season of home appliance procurement. The operation of terminal home appliances is poor, and the demand for ABS is greatly reduced; ABS prices continued to fall.

Recently, the price of styrene has bottomed out, and some manufacturers have reduced production. Generally speaking, if the raw material price rises next week, the styrene market will follow.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, domestic adipic acid was still weak this week (August 12-19), but the market showed signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. The market rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, and the price stabilized at the weekend. The weekly increase was 0.18%. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 8900-9300 yuan / ton. The cost is still negative, the crude oil is volatile, and the price of pure benzene continues to fall. On the supply and demand side, more factories released maintenance or load reduction news, and raised the listing price, which boosted market confidence.

From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate is low this week, and it is currently maintained at below 4.5%. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventories has eased slightly and the supply expectation has narrowed, which is also the main reason for adipic acid to stop falling and stabilize in the week. At present, the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The related upstream product pure benzene (- 5.6%) fell significantly, adipic acid remained weak, the trading focus was flat, and the manufacturer’s profit was inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 recovered after rebounding last week, but the terminal remained weak after a long-term decline.

Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene

Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream

The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price this week is deepened. According to the monitoring of business agency, the decline of pure benzene this week is 5.6%. Sinopec East China, the main plant of pure benzene, has continued to reduce the price this week, with a cumulative range of 450 yuan / ton, following the decrease of 500 yuan last week. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. Cyclohexanone also decreased slightly, at – 0.6%. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish, and the downstream factories mainly purchase on demand. According to the monitoring of business agency, after the rebound of PA66 downstream of adipic acid last week, the price stabilized this week, and the market still showed weak demand. The weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that there may be rebound demand for crude oil in the later stage, but pure benzene will continue to fall, forming a negative effect on adipic acid. In the later stage, pure benzene is expected to bottom out, which may boost the confidence of the downstream to a certain extent. On the supply side, at present, the operating rate of domestic units continues to decline, which has dropped to below 45%, and the market supply pressure is expected to ease. Cost and supply will bring rebound demand for adipic acid. However, terminal consumption is still weak, and downstream factories purchase on demand, which will also exert pressure on the rebound of adipic acid.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the market price of POM this week is generally horizontal, and the spot prices of various brands are mainly stable. As of August 12, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding grade sample enterprises of business community was about 18566.67 yuan / ton, up or down + 0.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been weak and consolidated recently this week. The market price of methanol in the upstream has not fluctuated much, the cost support is general, and the operating rate in the downstream has not been greatly improved. The demand for procurement is maintained, the market transaction is flat, and the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments. The market is weak and consolidated.

The upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost side supports the horizontal plate. In terms of industrial load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently, and Yankuang has the expectation of load increase in the near future. There is abundant supply in the field and strong competition. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrowed. The consumption of POM in the field is slow, the off-season market continues, and the main support point of spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing and mainly take small orders for goods, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a certain contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the offer of the merchants is stable but drops secretly. The offer mainly follows the enterprise or follows the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is weak and stable this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is weak and the POM cost is generally supported. The load of POM industry is high, and it is expected to continue to rise, and the support of supply side is poor. On the news side, the ex factory price of polymerization enterprises has recently increased, but the consumption of downstream enterprises is weak, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. It is expected that in the short term, the price of POM will be blocked due to the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped sharply this week. The sulfuric acid price dropped from 556.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 456.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 17.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 40.78% compared with the same period last year. On August 14, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 70.97, which was the same as yesterday, down 62.26% from the highest point 188.07 in the cycle (2022-04-13), and up 125.16% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream market rebounded at the bottom, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened

From the quotation of the manufacturer, the price of the mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell sharply this week, the inventory of the manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 460 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 420 yuan / ton this weekend, which decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulphuric acid quoted 600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market rebounded from the bottom. The sulfur price rose from 1086.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1130.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 33.00% compared with the same period of last year. The upstream market rebounded from the bottom, and the cost support improved. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, and the market price fell from 10780.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10770.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.09%, a year-on-year increase of 7.27% over the same period of last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level, with the market price of 18066.67 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.91% compared with the same period of last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened.

In the future, the market fluctuated slightly and fell

In the middle and late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream sulfur market has recently bottomed out and rebounded, with good cost support. However, the market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of business association believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price increased slightly this week, and the average market price increased from 166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 173.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 4.00%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 34.18%. On August 14, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.61, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.92% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (October 26, 2021), and up 153.67% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price increased slightly this week. The price of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 160 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2128.75 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2120.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.41%, a year-on-year increase of 24.62% over the same period of last year; The market price of ammonium chloride is adjusted at a low level, and the price is 1210.00 yuan / ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened.

Future forecast

In the middle and late August, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The market prices of polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride in the downstream have dropped slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline in the near future.

This week (8.8-8.15), the nitrile rubber market was weak and consolidated. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 15, the nitrile rubber price was 15812 yuan / ton, down 0.86% from 15950 yuan / ton last Monday. The price of raw materials fell, the cost dragged, and the market transaction was light, so the offer of merchants fell. As of 15th, the mainstream offers of Russian nitrile 3365, shunze nitrile 3355 and Lanhua nitrile 3305 in East China were around 14600-15100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offers of Nandi nitrile 1052 were around 18500-18900 yuan / ton.

The domestic nitrile rubber plant is basically in normal operation, and the industrial commencement rate is around 80%. The supply of nitrile rubber in the market is loose. According to the business news agency, the 100000 t / a nitrile rubber unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company operates normally; The 30000 T / a nitrile rubber unit of Nanjing Jinpu YINGSA Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; At present, the 30000 T / a nitrile rubber unit of alantai rubber has been restarted to normal operation; Normal production of Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 T / a nitrile rubber plant; Ningbo shunze 65000 T / a unit operates under low load.

This week (8.8-8.15), the price of butadiene dropped sharply, the price of acrylonitrile was adjusted at a low level, and the cost of nitrile rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 15, the price of butadiene was 7792 yuan / ton, down 10.10% from 8668 yuan / ton last Monday; As of August 15, the price of acrylonitrile was 9100 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.44% compared with 9060 last Monday.

Under the current high temperature weather and unsatisfactory export and other factors, the downstream construction of nitrile rubber continues to be low, and the replenishment mood is not high. According to the business agency, the downstream thermal insulation foam, rubber pipe and other industries are about 50-60%, and the demand side support is weak.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the current supply of NBR exceeds demand, low cost and weak demand restrict the market of NBR. However, the price of NBR has dropped significantly compared with the previous period, and there is no impact factor of another big drop in the short term. It is expected that the NBR market will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, as of August 12, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 10950 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week, and the market of aluminum fluoride was stable.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of fluorite rose slightly this week, by 1.09%; The price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, by 0.09%. The raw material market performance is torn, the cost of aluminum fluoride is rising, and the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened.

This week, cryolite prices fluctuated and fell

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of cryolite fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the market of cryolite was consolidated. As of August 12, the price of cryolite was 7625 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from 7650 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The price of cryolite fluctuated and fell, the demand for cryolite was weak and consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable.

This week, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose violently this week, and the market of electrolytic aluminum recovered. As of August 12, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18806.67 yuan / ton, up 1.38% from 18550 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose, the aluminum market recovered, and the demand for aluminum fluoride recovered.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business agency, hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, fell slightly this week, fluorite prices rose slightly, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rises, and the demand for aluminum fluoride warms up. In the future, the rising cost and demand of aluminum fluoride will warm up, and the driving force of aluminum fluoride will increase. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 5, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is referred to as 7533 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 7033 yuan / ton), the price is increased by 500 yuan / ton, or 7.11%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is running upward as a whole from August 1 to August 5 () in the first week of August. The inventory of the dimethyl carbonate factory is low, and the pressure on the supply side is small. With the support of the supply side, the market price of dimethyl carbonate keeps approaching high, and the market as a whole continues to operate steadily. As of August 5, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is near 7200-7800 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is 8000 yuan / ton, The increase in this week is more than 7%. At present, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still tight, the market trading atmosphere is also tense, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of August (8.1-8.4), the overall market price of propylene oxide in Shandong showed a slight increase. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 4, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.37% compared with August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the price difference of dimethyl carbonate in the market is large, and the atmosphere is relatively tight. With the support of the supply side, the confidence of the industry is good. The dimethyl carbonate analysts of the business club believe that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate is mainly high and strong, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of the supply and demand side.

From July 29 to August 5, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene in the week decreased slightly, from 7487 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7323 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 2.19% this week.

On August 4, international crude oil futures fell continuously to the lowest point since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, down US $2.34 or 2.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel, down US $2.66 or 2.75%. The main reason is that at the macro level, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points on Thursday to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC.

The recent negative market demand side has played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major global economies in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, the WTI fell by more than 4%. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the largest increase since 1995. The world’s major central banks have frequently raised interest rates to curb inflation, and the expectation of economic recession is rampant. This is also the most important factor that puts pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices are facing unprecedented pressure. In the future, the crude oil analysts of the business association believe that the supply and demand fundamentals are intertwined. On the one hand, the supply tension has not changed, which still supports the oil price. But in the medium term, the upward inflation and economic downturn may gradually bring pressure on demand. Stagflation and recession may be bad for the stock market and commodity market, and the oil price will also be under pressure. Considering comprehensively, in the short term, the oil price will be under pressure. In the medium term, it is difficult to ease the shortage of natural gas and other energy. Especially in the fourth quarter, the demand for energy in winter is increased, and the oil price still has upward momentum, but there is little possibility of breaking the previous high.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 29, 8850, – 300

August 2, 8650, – 200

August 4, 8450, – 200

This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced three times, with a total reduction of 700 yuan / ton. As of August 5, the listed price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 8450 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has dropped continuously since July.

Due to the large number of units put into production downstream of pure benzene in the early stage, the demand for pure benzene is increased, the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, the domestic trade cargo is reduced, and the high-level import of superimposed outer disk is reduced, and the East China port is kept in a state of de stocking as a whole. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant drop of external pure benzene, the support of external news for pure benzene is weak, and the recent reduction of the downstream load and the increase of shutdown maintenance, the demand for pure benzene is slowing down, and the demand follow-up is poor. The pure benzene market is under pressure this week. Sinopec has lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for three consecutive times, which once again affected the market mentality. The price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises dropped significantly this week.

The crude benzene market decreased slightly this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was 7320-7325 yuan / ton, down 205 yuan / ton compared with last week. The operating rate of coking enterprises this week is still low. However, with the improvement of the state of mind of coking enterprises, some enterprises have planned to gradually liberalize the production limit. However, the crude benzene supply this week has not changed much from that of last week and is still on the low side as a whole. The overall weakness of the industrial chain has led to the decline in the bidding price of crude benzene this week. If the supply of crude benzene returns to normal in the later period, there is still room for downward adjustment.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 8, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream region is reference to 19020 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC is 19500 yuan / ton), the price is reduced by 480 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.46%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first week of August (8.1-8.8), the domestic silicone DMC market was generally weak and fell. The price of silicone DMC of Shandong Dachang was slightly reduced by 200 yuan / ton in the week, and the current quotation is around 18800 yuan / ton. Compared with the end of July, the price of organosilicon DMC in the leading monomer factory has also been adjusted downward. The current quotation is around 19000-19200 yuan / ton. The organosilicon DMC unit in Northwest China operates normally, and the quotation of organosilicon DMC is around 19000 yuan / ton. At present, as of August 8, the domestic market price of silicone DMC is around 18800-19200 yuan / ton. The domestic silicone DMC market has dropped to a relatively low level. The downstream just needs to purchase and stock up mood has improved. The order volume is good, and the silicone DMC field trading atmosphere is acceptable.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, from the beginning of August to the present (8.1-8.5), the domestic metal silicon market of 441 # metal silicon has risen slightly. As of August 5, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the reference price of metal silicon on August 5 was 18040 yuan / ton, up 0.28% compared with August 1 (17990 yuan / ton).

Forecast of the future trend of silicone DMC Market

At present, after the downstream demand of organosilicon DMC meets the stage of stock preparation and purchase, it is expected to give certain support to the market of organosilicon DMC in the short term. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic market of organosilicon DMC is mainly based on stable consolidation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand.