Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2394.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. On September 4, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from 152.33 points (May 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.77% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea rose slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased slightly, from 5758.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5974.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.75%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.23%; The price of anthracite increased slightly. As of September 1, the price of anthracite increased by 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly, from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.30%.

From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is a small amount of stock, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The start-up rate of enterprises in the rubber sheet factory is low, and the purchase is mainly just needed; The compound fertilizer plant followed up on bargain hunting and improved its operation. The price of melamine dropped slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply, the power limitation in Sichuan has ended, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Internationally: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on September 9. The quotation is valid until September 19, and the shipping date is October 21. The intended purchase volume is about 1 million tons. The international urea price has made steady progress.

Urea price or small increase

In the first ten days of September, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. Urea analysts of business club believe that the prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas in the upstream of urea have increased slightly, and the cost of urea has increased. Downstream agricultural demand is general, and industry just needs to increase. The daily output of urea rebounded, spurred by the printing of labels. The recent urea or narrow range shock rise is the main one.

The price of ethylene oxide rebounded from the bottom in the month. The ex factory price at the beginning of the month was 6550 yuan / ton. The lowest point in the month fell to 6300 yuan / ton. The price gradually increased in the middle and late ten days. The latest price is 6700 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of cost, the demand for petrochemical products has dropped significantly. In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency, the demand for naphtha in Asia in 2022 will drop by 70000 barrels per day. The profit margin of naphtha ethylene cracking unit is not good. The manufacturer has reduced the operating rate to reduce losses. In August, the capacity was about 75% – 80%, down more than 5% from the operating rate in July. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia regained its lost ground at the end of the month, once as low as 820 US dollars per ton in the middle of the month. Based on the current external price, the theoretical loss of ethylene oxide is expected to be around 490 yuan per ton.

From the demand side, the high temperature weather continued this month, the infrastructure and real estate industry was depressed, and the domestic epidemic was sporadic. Under the influence of macroeconomic pressure, the demand for monomer remained weak. The temperature dropped in the last few days at the end of the month, and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream has heated up, which just needs to be followed up step by step.

From the perspective of supply, ethylene oxide is still in a situation where it is difficult to obtain a single supply, and manufacturers mainly supply contracts. The 100000 ton EO unit of Gulei Petrochemical is scheduled to be overhauled for about 20 days in mid September. Maoming and Yangzi Petrochemical have not yet defined the start-up time.

The recent rise in the market is mainly caused by the tightening of the supply side. The supply side has a slight strength. In addition, the market negotiation focus has risen due to the proximity of the golden nine silver ten.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was weak and stabilized in August. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3033.33 yuan / ton on August 1 and 2700.00 yuan / ton on August 31, down 10.99% in the month.

Affected by the sharp drop in raw material costs in July, enterprises comprehensively reduced the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite in August, driving the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to drop significantly at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the market price of domestic industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was mostly around 2600-2750 yuan / ton.

In late August, the price of soda ash in the upstream was weak and stable as a whole, the price of sulfur rose slightly, and the price of raw materials rose slightly. In addition, the inventory of sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers was low as a whole, and some manufacturers increased their factory prices slightly, which led to a small rise in the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite at the end of the month.

The domestic soda ash price fell by 6.09% in August as a whole, and the overall weakness stabilized in the latter half of the year. The sulfur price rebounded from the bottom, rising by 25.54% in the month. The small rise in raw material cost will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Analysts of business club believe that the raw material cost has picked up slightly, the inventory of manufacturers has remained low, the overall supply of sodium metabisulfite market is tight, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is expected to still have some room for recovery in September, supported by short-term demand. In general, the price of upstream raw materials is still at a low level, and the overall recovery space of sodium pyrosulfite market price in the future is limited.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China increased slightly. On August 30, the average price of sulfur was 1176.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15% compared with the price of 1163.33 yuan / ton on August 22, and an increase of 26.98% compared with the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and put into operation. The port cargo carriers are bullish and reluctant to sell. Due to the weak downstream market, the demand for sulfur in the domestic market is weak. The operators in the field have different attitudes. Most of the sulfur is mainly stable. Some manufacturers increase their prices according to their own shipping conditions. The overall downstream demand is general. The market purchase just needs to be followed up. The mood of waiting and waiting in the field is strong. As of the 30th, the price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was between 1190-1290 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 990-1150 yuan / ton.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline, and the price fell sharply in the week. As of August 30, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 378 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.40% compared with the price of 282 yuan / ton on August 22. The domestic sulfuric acid market is weak and weak, the on-site operation is relatively high, the supply of goods is sufficient, the downstream operation is low, the demand is low, the on-site supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the enterprise’s shipment is blocked. In order to relieve the inventory pressure, the market trading center is shifted downward.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is in weak operation, and the demand for monoammonium continues to be weak. The fertilizer use in the downstream in autumn is slow, and the demand for raw materials is limited. The support in the field is insufficient. The diammonium market is light, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market is weak, the trading atmosphere on the site is cold, the manufacturer’s shipment is poor, the inventory pressure is large, and the market situation is weak. The overall demand of the ammonium phosphate Market is general, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field continues, and the ammonium phosphate market continues to operate in a weak position.

According to the sulfur analysts of business community, the downstream market of domestic sulfur is weak and weak, the demand support is limited, the pressure of manufacturers’ shipment is large, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market continues. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will wait and see, and the price will be temporarily stable. Specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped sharply this month. The sulfuric acid price dropped from 612.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 282.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 53.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 64.08% compared with the same period of last year.

On August 29, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 51.67, down 2.49 points from yesterday, down 72.53% from the highest point 188.07 (2022-04-13) in the cycle, and up 63.93% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support has improved and the downstream demand is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers has dropped sharply this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory is small.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly this month. The sulfur price rose from 926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1176.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 26.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 36.85% compared with the same period of last year. The upstream cost support improved, which had a positive impact on the sulfuric acid market. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, with the price falling from 10790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 10780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.09%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.21% over the same period of last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly, with the price falling from 18866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93% compared with the same period of last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened.

In the future, the market fluctuated slightly and fell

In the middle and early September, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly. Although the upstream sulfur price has increased slightly and the cost support has improved, the downstream market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate have decreased slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid has weakened, and the product trend has decreased under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of business association believe that the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer a small fluctuation and decline under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7150.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 6825.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.55%. The current price increased by 19.47% over the previous year.

potassium nitrate

In August, the domestic potassium nitrate Market showed a downward trend. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium nitrate Market has declined for two consecutive months since 2022. This is mainly because the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price has continued to decline. The port inventory is accumulated and the delivery speed is slow. The downstream maintains just needed procurement, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the market of potassium nitrate is low. According to the statistics of the business agency, the recent quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate in China is 6500-6800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement conditions.

In August, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge was adjusted at a high level. The downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened. It was mainly based on purchasing. The port cargo source is impacted by the China Europe railway, and the price keeps falling. The potassium chloride analysts of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

The domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient, the price continues to fall, and the cost is generally supported. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate throughout the country and sorted and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

This week, DOTP prices fell first and then rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell first and then rose this week. As of August 26, the price of DOTP was 9262.50 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from the price of 9275 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. On August 25, the DOTP commodity index was 61.28, an increase of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.89% from the highest point of 100.28 points in the cycle (October 12, 2021), and an increase of 2.65% from the lowest point of 59.70 points on August 1, 2022. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2021 to now).

This week, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose. As of August 26, the price of isooctanol was 8300 yuan / ton, down 0.80% from 8366.67 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. High temperature power restriction, many isooctanol enterprises stop production and overhaul, the enterprise operating rate is low, and the isooctanol price is adjusted by shock. With the temperature falling, the power restriction is loose, and the arrival of the golden nine silver ten, the downstream demand is expected to warm up, and the driving force for the future market still exists.

PTA price fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 26, the PTA price was 6295.42 yuan / ton, up 2.73% from 6128.33 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. Recently, PTA’s operating load is low and it is in the state of de stocking. This week, the downstream textile industry will enter the traditional peak season. The temperature will drop this week. It is expected that the power restriction policy will be relaxed and the terminal demand will be improved. PTA prices have rebounded and risen, and the cost of DOTP has increased, and the driving force of DOTP has increased.

PVC prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PVC fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 26, the price of PVC was 6490 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the price of 6325 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. The PVC market is good and the trading atmosphere is good. At present, the downstream of the PVC spot market is still dominated by rigid demand, the market is active in receiving orders, the market transaction atmosphere is improving, the PVC price is rising, the demand for DOTP is rising, and the driving force for future DOTP is increasing.

Future market expectation

According to the DOTP data analyst of the business agency, with the decrease of temperature, the loosening of power limitation policy, the expected start-up of the plasticizer industry chain, the price of isooctanol and PTA in the upstream has stopped falling and increased, and the cost of DOTP has increased; The downstream PVC market is warming, and the demand for DOTP is rising. In the future, the temperature drop is coming, the start-up of plasticizer industry chain enterprises is expected to rise, the demand for DOTP is warming up, and the driving force of DOTP is increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise slightly in the future.

This week, the spot tin market price (8.12-8.19) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 206210 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 199660 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 3.18% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price continues to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 33rd week of 2022 (August 15-august 19), there were 6 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The commodities with the top three increases were metal silicon (12.90%), magnesium (4.73%) and cobalt (4.18%). There were 15 commodities with a month on month decline, and 2 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silver (- 5.93%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 5.37%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 4.42%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.64%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price., Compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shangahi tin, 198500 yuan / ton, – 7000 yuan / ton, 2826

London tin, 24705 US dollars / ton, – 465 US dollars / ton, 4190

In terms of futures, this week’s futures market continued to maintain a weak and volatile operation. Lunxi fell by about 2% this week. Lunxi’s price was weak due to the market mentality dragged down by the continuous accumulation of stocks this week. The trend of Shanghai and tin is similar. The overall operation is weak, and the overall operation is below 20. The weekly position of the main contract is down as a whole, with a weekly drop of more than 2.5%.

The spot market continued to follow the overall downward trend of Shanghai tin this week. The main fluctuation range in the week was 198000-201500 yuan / ton. Basically, the tin market is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand. Recently, the domestic market as a whole is still dominated by destocking. There is a certain replenishment behavior in the lower reaches, but the overall downstream consumption has not improved significantly. And there is no expectation of improvement in future demand. Generally speaking, the market expects tin production to rise in August, and the main production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to be supported. It is expected that the rising power of the tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price will be under pressure in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4050 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3766.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.00%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.48%. On August 21, the calcium carbide commodity index was 98.69, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.50% from the highest point 212.23 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 77.85% from the lowest point 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream orchid charcoal is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 6570.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6325.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 3.73%, down 31.71% compared with the same period last year. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the calcium carbide market may fall in a narrow range

In late August, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market is slightly decreased, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In late August, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.15% compared with the price on last Wednesday (August 17), an increase of 4.13% compared with the price on July 22, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.44% in a three-month cycle.

The recent (August 17-august 22) melamine market rose. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has dropped slightly, the cost side is generally supported, the operating rate of melamine has declined, the market supply has decreased, the market mentality has been supported, and the price has risen. However, the actual demand of the downstream is general, and the purchase is just needed.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on August 22. According to the monitoring data of business association, the reference price of urea on August 22 was 2326.00, down 3.41% compared with August 1 (2408.00).

According to the melamine analysts of business association, the current cost support is limited, and the supply reduction leads to the price rise, but the demand side performance is not good. After the rise, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and most of them mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.