According to the sample data monitored by the business community, on October 8 and 14, the domestic ethanol market was in shock. The average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 6787 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.18% within the week, rose 1.12 month on month, and rose 4.02% year on year.

The domestic ethanol market was in shock and consolidation. After the holiday, the downstream demand for ethanol was stable, and the starting load was not boosted. At the same time, the logistics recovered after the holiday, and the domestic ethanol market was dominated by normal spot shipments. The price of raw corn was adjusted by shocks, with a short-term upward trend as the main trend. The cost of ethanol was strongly supported. In terms of demand, the operating rate of chemical ethyl acetate was high, which was driven by favorable factors in the short term.

In terms of raw materials and costs, the business community monitored the weak price of domestic corn market, which fell by 0.18% from 2800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2797 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

In terms of downstream products, the order volume of ethyl acetate in the chemical industry was stable. With the boost of foreign trade demand, the high load was maintained, and the overall market demand improved. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in the paint industry, the demand was stable.

Raw corn was boosted in the short term, but with the new grain coming into the market after the festival, the high price was difficult to maintain, and the demand recovery was difficult to see an increase in the short term. The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

The price of domestic fluorite rose. As of December 12, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2943.75 yuan/ton, 3.09% higher than the price of 2855.56 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Now the price has reached the highest point in the year. Since the middle of September, the fluorite market has risen significantly.

Supply side: raw ore is very tight, fluorite enterprises are under pressure

Recently, the supply side operation rate has declined, mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited operation of fluorite enterprises, insufficient spot supply, and rising fluorite prices. Recently, the commencement of some fluorite mines and flotation has remained low. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited, and the fluorite market price has risen continuously. As of December 12, the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Inner Mongolia was 2950-3050 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Fujian was 2900-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Henan was 2950-3050 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 wet fluorite powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3050 yuan/ton.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

In October, the price of hydrofluoric acid market in the downstream of fluorite rose. As of December 12, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.15%. The hydrofluoric acid enterprises started work normally, and the demand was guaranteed. The rise in the price of hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price of fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense, military, and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, and photovoltaic panels. With the demand for new energy, the outlook of the fluorite industry chain has been improved accordingly.

Future predictions: the northern fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition, the supply of raw ore is very tight in the near future. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market is rising, and the demand in the new energy field is driving. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that the fluorite market price may continue to rise.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of September 30, 2022, the average reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8333 yuan/ton, down 283 yuan/ton, or 3.29%, compared with September 1 (8616 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.30), the domestic n-propanol market has been in a volatile and downward movement as a whole. In the first ten days of September, at the beginning of the month, the n-propanol market was running down as a whole. The price reduction of n-propanol by Shandong’s large factories led to the downward trend of the market. On September 7, the n-propanol market price in Shandong was near 7800-8000 yuan/ton. As the Mid Autumn Festival approached, the n-propanol market was steadily warming up, boosted by the downstream demand for goods preparation. As of September 15, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7900-8300 yuan/ton.

In late September, facing the upcoming National Day holiday, n-propanol manufacturers actively shipped. In Shandong, n-propanol manufacturers mostly adjusted their prices according to their own inventory and other factors. The overall market trend fell back to a high level. The low end price of n-propanol in Shandong was close to 7600 yuan/ton. There was a large difference between high and low prices on the market. Since the 26th, with the digestion of demand, the low price supply in the market has gradually decreased, and the overall market of n-propanol has risen slightly, As of September 29, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was 8000-8200 yuan/ton. Distributors around the country have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. The actual order negotiations are the main thing. We will wait and see the changes in raw material prices and shipments in the future.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the domestic n-propanol market news is relatively calm. As the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream stock preparation is about to come to an end. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be mostly stable and slightly dynamic, with interval adjustment as the main operation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

In September, the market of styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated and consolidated. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 30, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11800 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from 11783 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 11830 yuan/ton, and the monthly low point was 11733 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, there is a small increase compared with the early stage, and there is a certain need for support for styrene butadiene rubber; The price of raw materials rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker in the face of butadiene benzene support; The supply side is relatively loose, forming a small negative for SBR. As of the 30th day, the market offer of SBR 1502 was RMB 11700~12200/ton

SBR supply fluctuated slightly in September. Shenhua Chemical SBR started to operate from Line 2 to Line 3 at the beginning of the month; Li Changrong started the shutdown and maintenance of 50000 t/a styrene butadiene unit at the beginning of the month to the middle of the month; Weitai began to reduce its load to the first line in the middle of the month.

The cost support of SBR in September was first strong and then weak. The prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene rose first and then fell, and the cost became weaker from strong to weak in the face of styrene butadiene rubber support. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 29, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, down 4.14% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 9277 yuan/ton. As of September 29, the price of styrene was 9312 yuan/ton, up 2.62% from 9075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high and low point was 9820 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in September, which had more influence on SBR. As of September 29, the price was 12366 yuan/ton, up 4.71% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: In the peak season of Jinjiu, domestic tire enterprises started to work slightly, with full steel tires starting at around 60% and semi steel tires starting at around 65%, supporting SBR.

Future market forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is basically stable, medium and loose; The price of raw materials dropped compared with the previous period; The demand side was slightly supported, and the price of styrene butadiene rubber was consolidated in a narrow range in the short term; After the festival, if the cost rises or the demand rises, SBR may have an opportunity to rise.

In September, the domestic viscose staple fiber ran in a weak position, and the price center continued to fall, down 1000 yuan/ton. It is hard to find a good situation on the demand side. The air atmosphere is thick on the site, and the turnover of human cotton yarn is difficult to improve. It is transmitted to the general enthusiasm for raw material procurement and the demand for replenishment. In the last ten days of this month, the price of dissolved pulp in the outer disk was lowered, and the support for the cost of viscose staple fiber was loosened, further promoting the price center of viscose staple fiber to a new level.

In September, with the price adjustment of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, declining, the trading of rayon yarn continued to be cold, and the price also showed a downward trend. Recently, the market still has the performance of selling goods at reduced prices. Under the condition of weak demand, it is difficult to stimulate the downstream to receive goods. The market trading atmosphere is light and difficult to change. Enterprises negotiate with each other to deliver goods. Most deals are based on rigid demand.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber continued to fall in September. As of September 30, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 13840 yuan/ton, 1020 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 6.86%.

The price trend of rayon yarn

Renmian Yarn Price Trend Chart

The price of human cotton yarn followed the decline. As of September 30, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 18166 yuan/ton, showing a situation of price without market. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month, the price fell by nearly 500 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.50%.

Price rise and fall chart of viscose staple fiber/rayon yarn industry chain

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low, and the overall load is about 55% at present. The overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. In terms of demand, the start-up rate of downstream cotton yarn enterprises was basically stable. Renmian still sold goods in some areas, but the actual transaction situation has not improved. The downstream still maintains the level of just in demand procurement, and the inventory of finished products of Renmian yarn enterprises has risen by a narrow margin. The downstream orders of rayon yarn were not as expected, the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement, and the willingness to take delivery of goods was not high in the short term, and the demand side continued to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

Recently, the price of raw material dissolving pulp and chemical materials has declined, and the cost support of viscose staple fiber has loosened compared with the early stage. In terms of demand, the weak market situation is difficult to ease, and enterprise operations still focus on priority shipping; The downward transfer of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn inventory was blocked, the market was pessimistic, and the possibility of downward adjustment remained after the festival. At present, the downstream expectation of “gold nine silver ten” is also relatively disappointed, and is pessimistic about the future market. The analysts of the business association predict that the viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn industry chain will continue to operate in a weak position, and the possibility of continued price decline still exists.

The price of ethylene glycol rose slightly in September after the decline

According to the data from the business community, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4350 yuan/ton on September 30, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4125 yuan/ton, up 5.45%.

According to the external data of ethylene glycol, as of September 29, the spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 497-499 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton from 489-491 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month; The spot CIF price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia rose by 30 dollars/ton to 524-526 dollars/ton from 494-496 dollars/ton at the beginning of the month.

Overview of ethylene glycol fundamentals

From the supply side data, at present, the overall domestic ethylene glycol operation maintains a relatively low startup rate, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the domestic ethylene glycol supply is expected to recover at a low level.

On the demand side, the terminal orders were weak in the first half of the year, and the weaving operating rate was always below 85%. As the year gradually entered the peak season, the demand is expected to be repaired. The winter orders are expected to increase. At present, the gray fabric inventory is at a medium to high position. The polyester finished product inventory is expected to decline slightly in the short term. The polyester profit is low, and the bottle piece is better than the staple fiber than the filament.

The inventory data shows that the ethylene glycol inventory of the main port in East China is about 800000 tons, and it is estimated that the arrival volume of the main port in East China during the National Day will reach 240000 tons.

Future market forecast

In the early stage, the low price of ethylene glycol and the shrinking supply brought about a slight improvement in the price, but the improvement in supply and demand may be difficult to sustain. Although ethylene glycol is expected to go to the warehouse in the near future, the subsequent coal production may return rapidly in the stage when the raw material ethylene is surplus and the refining supporting ethylene glycol is still in production. In addition, the downstream demand is less than expected, and MEG may operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 14.54% compared with September 1, down 37.80% year on year in a three-month cycle, and down 52.81% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall trend of acrylic acid market rose, and the prices of some enterprises decreased at the end of the month. In the first half of the year, the market price of raw propylene gradually rose, the cost support gradually rose, some enterprises’ equipment maintenance reduced the supply, the downstream stock was orderly before the Mid Autumn Festival, the market price was strong, the cost support was firm after the festival, the industry started to decline, and the downstream operating rate was comprehensively improved, which supported the steady rise of acrylic acid price. In the late ten days, the market was stable and weak. The raw propylene was stable first and then rose. The cost pressure remained, but the demand was flat, the buying was average, and the early inventory was more digested. Near the end of the month, the downstream stock was gradually approaching the end, and the manufacturer’s quotation was stable and slightly changed.

On September 28, the benchmark price of upstream propylene in the business community was 7610.60 yuan/ton, up 7.18% from September 1 (7100.60 yuan/ton).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost support is still there, the holiday is approaching, the downstream customers have basically completed their stock preparation, and the market trading atmosphere is stable. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 28, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 9733 yuan/ton, and on September 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9250 yuan/ton), the price increased by 483 yuan/ton, or 4.50%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.28), the domestic propylene glycol market has been rising as a whole. In the first ten days of September, supported by the high cost of raw materials and the low inventory of propylene glycol in the field, the domestic propylene glycol market saw a steady rise at the beginning of the month, and the price rose by nearly 6% to 400-600 yuan/ton within five days. Subsequently, the market continued to consolidate at a high level.

After the Mid Autumn Festival, the center of gravity of propylene glycol market continued to move towards the high-end. With the rising cost and the downstream demand side being boosted, the pressure on propylene glycol supply was low, and the market ushered in a broad rise. As of September 15, the propylene glycol market price was near 9900-10300 yuan/ton, and the market rose by more than 9% in the first ten days.

At the end of September, on the 16th and 17th, the propylene glycol market price rose again as a whole, with an upward range of about 200 yuan/ton, and then the market remained stable at a high level. Since the 21st, with the decline of raw material costs, propylene glycol cost side support has become loose. In addition, after the high price on the market, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased. With the market trading and investment on the market becoming weak, and both supply and demand becoming weak, propylene glycol market prices have started to fall back from a high level. As of September 28, the domestic propylene glycol market price has referred to around 9500-9800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.29% in the last ten days. At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol market is light, and the overall performance of new orders is average.

On the upstream side, the propylene oxide market rose slightly in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene rose, and the cost support was gradually strengthened. Before the festival, the on-site devices were mainly stable, the supply was tight, the factory shipments were smooth, the market was not pressured, and the market returned after the festival. The market continued to be tight, the demand side was flat, the downstream mentality was different, and the focus was on watching carefully. On the 15th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10500-10600 yuan/ton. In the second half of the month, the cost support remained, some units recovered, and the supply side increased, but the demand side was still flat. The downstream waited and waited, the inventory was slightly accumulated, and the price was lowered. In the last ten days, as the downstream polyether orders rebounded, factory shipments improved, the inventory pressure eased, and the market price rose slightly. After the deadlock operation, the mainstream quotation of the epoxy propane market in Shandong was around 9800-9900 yuan/ton on the 28th.

Future trend analysis

At present, the National Day holiday is coming, and the logistics and transportation have been stopped. After the completion of the propylene glycol staging, the current market new orders are not good. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community thinks that during the pre holiday period, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly weak, and the overall market fluctuation will not be too large. More attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand.

The price of ethylene oxide has risen slightly in the past 10 days, with an increase of 5.63%. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

During the cycle, ethylene oxide continued its previous strong trend, but it has stagnated recently due to the following reasons:

1. The upstream ethylene price fell, and the cost support weakened.

According to the external data, the spot CIF middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia decreased by 50 dollars/ton in the cycle, from 960 dollars/ton on the 16th to 910 dollars/ton on the 26th; The spot CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia decreased by 70 dollars/ton in the cycle, from 970 dollars/ton on the 16th to 900 dollars/ton on the 26th.

2. Both downstream supply and demand are weak;

In terms of downstream, the domestic polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market quotation is firm within the week. At present, the monomer factory has a low starting load of about 40%, the supply is not high, and the demand for construction in the terminal market is relatively weak, but it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. At present, the downstream has raised the price of ethylene oxide, which is acceptable, without significant negative feedback.

The business agency predicts that the price of ethylene oxide may fluctuate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 26, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10066.67 yuan/ton, which was 1.00% higher than that of last Tuesday (September 20), 11.85% higher than that of August 26, and 7.65% lower than that of last three months.

Recently (9.20-9.26), the market of propylene oxide has risen slightly. In the near future, the raw propylene market has been generally stable, with some support on the cost side. On the 20th, the downstream was mainly cautious. As the downstream polyether orders rebounded, factory shipments improved, inventory pressure eased, and the market quotation rose slightly. On the 26th, the market atmosphere was general, and the downstream just needed to follow up. The mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9800-9900 yuan/ton.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 23, the reference price of propylene was 7430.60, up 4.65% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 10000.00 on September 23, an increase of 8.11% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that at present, the raw propylene has been consolidated and operated, the cost support still exists, the supply side inventory has been slightly accumulated, the pressure is not great, and the demand side is light. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be weak, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidelines.