According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 4280 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 3.88% year on year.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly, in addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China is stable this week. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the delivery of goods on the site is normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid on the site is temporarily stable, the price of raw nitric acid is stable, supporting the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is stable.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose slightly this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 4890 yuan/ton, up 2.44% from 4773.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of liquid ammonia has been significantly tightened. Considering the epidemic situation, the ammonia enterprises are concentrated in production transformation and shutdown. In addition to the devices that are still in the maintenance period before, the devices such as Wanhua, Shenyuan, Yaxin and others have failed at the same time. In addition, the urea orders previously signed by some co production enterprises are still being implemented, mainly focusing on urea production, which further aggravates the shortage of liquid ammonia supply. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has risen, the price trend of nitric acid has temporarily stabilized, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week dropped sharply. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from the early week’s price of 8300 yuan/ton, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX external market has declined. As of August 8, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was 874-876 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 892-894 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has declined.

This week, the crude oil price trend declined. As of August 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 71.46 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil dropped sharply, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

The downstream PTA market price fell sharply this week, and the average PTA market price was 5100-5200 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. In terms of PTA supply, the new production capacity was put into operation later than the market expectation. At present, two sets of new units have not been put into operation substantially. However, some units were restarted, of which the 350000 ton Yizheng chemical fiber unit was overhauled on November 4 and restarted on December 7. The 700000t unit of Yadong Petrochemical was overhauled on November 27, and it is planned to restart on December 12. At present, the industry starts at around 66%. Under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery, the downstream polyester industry passively decreased and increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which has affected the domestic market price of paraxylene.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price still has a downward trend. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between strong supply and weak demand for PTA is prominent, and there is downward pressure on the price. It is expected that the price of paraxylene in the market will remain low in the future.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 11 was 6206.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 5.97% lower than the price of 6600.00 yuan/ton on December 5.

On December 11, the fuel oil commodity index was 125.69, unchanged from yesterday, 8.20% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 172.76% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of December 11, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6350 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6450 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6180 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6230 yuan/ton.

The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level within the year. Because some economic data of the United States exceeded expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 7, Singapore’s fuel inventory had increased by 412000 barrels, reaching a new three week high of 20.306 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell 1.253 million barrels to a two-week low of 13.388 million barrels. Singapore’s middle distillate oil inventory fell 694000 barrels to a three week low of 7066000 barrels. (Jinshi Data APP)

Future market forecast: the international crude oil price continues to decline, which is bad for the domestic ship fuel market. The domestic ship fuel raw material price declines, and the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6100-6300 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6200-6400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will decline slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine kept stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 45800 yuan/ton, down 27.14% year on year. On December 11, the bromine commodity index was 160.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.46% from the highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 172.74% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The bromine price was stable this week. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have recently started to maintain low load, and the multi-dimensional industry mainly needs to purchase. Bromine manufacturers often park their cars, mainly consume inventory, and play a game between supply and demand. Bromine manufacturers are not in a hurry to ship, and have the intention of stabilizing prices.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1483.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1513.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 2.02%, down 21.72% year on year. The downstream ammonium phosphate market is relatively strong, which supports the sulfur better. The terminal phosphate fertilizer is steadily promoted, the enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the short-term sulfur market is organized and operated.

According to the analysts of the business community, the price of bromine has temporarily stabilized in the near future, while the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties are playing a game. Bromine enterprises are interested in stabilizing the price and are not in a hurry to ship. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices are stabilizing this week

According to the data of the business community, as of December 9, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 12250 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on December 4 and 12250 yuan/ton on December 1. The cost is strong and stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable this week.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose sharply this week. As of December 9, the price of fluorite was 3375 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the price of 3318.75 yuan/ton on December 4, and up 2.47% from the price of 3293.75 yuan/ton on December 1; The price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. As of December 9, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 12757.14 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from 12742.86 yuan/ton on December 4, and up 0.22% from 12728.57 yuan/ton on December 1. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week, the rising trend of raw material prices slowed down, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the business community, the price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week, and the rising trend of aluminum fluoride cost slowed down. In general, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride remained. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride in the future will be strong and stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 37250 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 32625 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 12.42%..

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The yellow phosphorus market was light in the first ten days of this month, with poor market demand and limited turnover of new orders. The yellow phosphorus manufacturer’s inventory increased, the market price fell sharply, and the manufacturer basically did not make external quotation. The yellow phosphorus enterprise negotiated according to the price situation, and negotiated the price one by one. From the middle of the month, the price continued to drop to a low of 27500 yuan/ton, and the market price dropped by 10000 yuan compared with 37250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At this time, traders bought at the bottom, the downstream actively replenished goods, and trading increased. The yellow phosphorus market emerged from nowhere. The market price rebounded and rose, and then stabilized. The market started to be light at the end of the day, and the downstream was cautious in receiving orders and purchasing at a lower price. The manufacturer’s price decreased slightly, stimulating downstream and traders to purchase, the market improved and the pressure on shipment was relieved. Near the end of the month, the manufacturer’s intention of low price shipment was low, and the market price rose again. As of November 28, the manufacturer’s quotation was 32000-33000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. On November 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1054 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2 yuan/ton, or 0.16%. At present, the phosphate fertilizer market at the downstream terminal of phosphate rock has warmed up compared with the previous period, which will provide a certain psychological support for phosphate rock from the bottom to the bottom. In addition, the supply side will continue to support. The phosphate rock datagrapher of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of decline and one round of increase in November. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2400 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a monthly drop of 7.69%. Since November, the steel price has always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills have fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate is at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. The lack of demand to support coke prices has dropped for three consecutive rounds, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 yuan/ton. As the coke market has dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal is higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and the profits have been damaged. The coking enterprises have launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 yuan/ton. In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain is in a seasonal off-season as a whole. The business community expects the coke market to be bullish in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.

On the demand side, phosphoric acid prices fell in November. On November 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 9420 yuan/ton, and on November 28, the average price was 8612.5 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 8.57%. The overall market price fell mainly. At present, downstream manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, fearing that once they buy, they will continue to decline, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. With the recovery of yellow phosphorus price at the end of the month, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market price will be stable and good in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose this month. On the whole, the price fell. The market demand is light, the price of yellow phosphorus once fell to near the cost price, and the downstream and traders bought at the bottom, so the yellow phosphorus market improved and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus rebounded again, considering the cost of next month. It is reported that the electricity price may be raised again next month, and yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price when the cost increases. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be stable in the short term, supplemented by a small increase. In addition, the transportation in some regions is not smooth at present, and there is uncertainty about the market, so we should pay attention to the future market.

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped sharply this month. The price of isooctanol dropped from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.36%. A year-on-year decrease of 23.61%.

On November 29, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, down 1.72 points from yesterday, down 50.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 91.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose first and then fell this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is increased, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose slightly this month, with the propylene price rising from 7036.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7540.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 1.01% year on year. The cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol. Downstream DOP prices fell in shock. The DOP price dropped from 10150.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.48%, 13.23% YoY compared with the same period last year. Downstream market fell slightly, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol weakened.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic isooctanol market may rise by a small amplitude, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and there was an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8550 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8616 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 66 yuan/ton, or 0.77%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market fell slightly in early December (12.01-12.05). Recently, the shipping price of n-propanol of Shandong Dachang decreased slightly, driving the overall market focus downward. In terms of cost, in December, the cost support for n-propanol was loose due to the downward trend of raw material market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly the purchase of rigid demand, and the overall support of the demand side is general. On December 5, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8100-8550 yuan/ton. The barreled market price is around 9100-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, many places across the country have received good macro news. The market circulation in many places has changed a lot compared with the previous period, and the mentality of the industry has changed. Although the n-propanol market is generally supported on the supply and demand side, the n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that, under the good atmosphere of the general environment, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market can mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the risk of a sharp decline in the market is small. More attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side for the specific trend.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market price fluctuated and fell in November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of maleic anhydride as of November 30 was 7000.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 6.42% from 7480.00 yuan/ton on November 1.

On November 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 65.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.38% from the highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 28.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market continued to shut down. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to shut down in December. At the beginning of the month, it is in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continues to fall. The resin is operated cautiously and mainly purchased on demand. At the end of the month, the logistics in many places across the country was blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in major factories was sufficient. However, Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers began to close their doors and wait. Shandong manufacturers reduced their production, and the price of maleic anhydride showed an upward trend. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 6750 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7200 yuan/ton.

In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.

In November, the hydrogenation benzene market showed a downward trend. The ex factory price in North China was 7733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 10.56% month on month. The hydrogenation benzene market as a whole is still weak in the near future. The performance of crude oil and styrene is still weak. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Affected by the decline of pure benzene, the price of hydrogenation benzene continues to decline. There are some bargain hunting purchases in the market, and the deal is fair. In terms of supply, East China has a relatively sufficient supply of imported goods, which has a certain drag on the market mentality.

3、 Future market forecast

Maleic anhydride product analysts from the business community believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in November. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market suffers from a serious deficit in benzene oxidation process. The factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to stop in December. In the first ten days of this year, it was in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continued to fall. The resin was operated cautiously, and it was mainly purchased on demand. At present, the logistics in many places across the country is blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the main factories is sufficient. However, the manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have begun to close the offer and wait, while the production of Shandong manufacturers has decreased, and the price has an upward trend at the end of the month. Maleic anhydride market is expected to rise in the near future.

The market of dichloromethane was weak in late November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2272 yuan/ton, 7.72% lower than 2462 yuan/ton on November 21, and the low point in the cycle was 2237 yuan/ton. As of the 30th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2200 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton.

The pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane remained in late November.

In late November, the spot market of methanol fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of dichloromethane did not change much. According to the business community, as of November 30, the spot price of methanol was 2768 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from 2793 yuan/ton on November 21, with a high point of 2811 yuan/ton and a low point of 2751 yuan/ton.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and sales. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the sales of refrigerants are low; The demand of film, thinner and pharmaceutical industries is weak, and the transaction of methylene chloride market is generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.