1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.63%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 51.51% year on year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on February 12 was 43.49, which was the same as yesterday, down 58.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 44.39% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7623.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.85%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 10233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 6.19%. The market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late February may be volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream rose slightly, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement increased. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be mainly subject to a small fluctuation under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the isobutyraldehyde market.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products has dropped to about 30%, and the recent price trend of PX external market has increased. As of the 9th, the closing price of paraxylene market in Asia was 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1051-1053 dollars/ton CFR China, and the rise of external market price is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. Overall, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil rose this week. As of September 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.06/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.50/barrel. On the macro level, driven by the unexpected non-agricultural employment data, the US dollar index rebounded strongly, rising sharply on the third day, with a rebound of nearly 1.2%, which put valuation pressure on commodities and risky assets denominated in US dollars. Crude oil was obviously under pressure, and the oil price hit a one-month low on the fifth day. The pressure on the supply side coexists, and the decline of Russian oil supply is not obvious, although the EU and the Group of Seven (G7) countries have officially implemented the embargo and price ceiling measures on Russian oil products since February 5. However, the data shows that with the support of more Asian buyers, Russia’s oil supply performance is strong, the international oil price trend is rising, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the high crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market declined this week, and the average price of the PTA market was 5600-5650 yuan/ton as of the 10th, with a decline of 2.52%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts this week are relatively stable. At present, the industry starts around 73%. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the PTA market price decline is limited. Some downstream staple fiber devices were restarted, and the downstream cotton mills and weaving mills resumed their operations slowly. The operation was still at a low level and only sporadic purchases were needed. The staple fiber enterprises accumulated stocks, and the staple fiber futures fell along with the cost. However, staple fiber enterprises are optimistic about the recovery of future demand. This week, the trading atmosphere of the yarn market has gradually recovered. With the recovery of logistics and downstream acceptance capacity, the delivery of the yarn factory is gradually normal. The trading atmosphere of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market has gradually recovered, and the prices of various grades of yarn have increased to different degrees compared with the year before. On the whole, the downstream market has increased, and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market rose positively, and the spot price rose significantly one week after the holiday. According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, as of the eve of the holiday on January 19, the average ex-factory price of domestic EVA was 13800 yuan/ton, and as of February 6, the average price was 15500 yuan/ton, with a range increase of 12.32%.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

At present, the market of ethylene at the raw material end is stronger, and the supply end has the news of equipment maintenance of major Southeast Asian plants. The market supply is reduced, and the supplier’s mentality is strong. Downstream users purchase more after the holiday, and the domestic demand for ethylene is increased due to the impact of new projects. The market trading is good, and the prices quoted by merchants are rising. In terms of vinyl acetate, domestic factories are lagging behind in resuming work and the market is limited in stock. However, most of the downstream is to digest the pre-year inventory and contracts. The momentum of the market in the market is general, and the price is stable and small. Once the raw materials have risen and stabilized, the support for EVA is moderate.

Supply:

Since the resumption of work after the holiday, the load of domestic EVA production enterprises has increased from about 80% before the holiday to 91%, and the total output in the week after the holiday is about 41300 tons. The market supply is stable, the factory inventory pressure is low, and the supplier has some support for the spot goods. The ex-factory price of the manufacturer has risen sharply, and the auction source price has also risen. Recently, the spot price has generally increased by more than 1000 yuan/ton.

Demand:

In the early stage, the demand for EVA fell due to holidays, and in the near future, the downstream gradually resumed work, and the market trading is expected to rise. The demand for photovoltaic materials is expected to be slightly better than that for foaming materials. At the same time, downstream factories also have pre-season inventory and contracts to be digested. Next week, the demand pull may be biased to just need replenishment, but the overall direction of demand increase remains unchanged.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the recent EVA market has been rising rapidly, and the main positive factors come from the strong thrust of fundamentals. The overall strength of the raw material market supported the EVA spot market. Downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday to activate demand, replenish stock and follow up gradually, and the market traffic is expected to be good. At the same time, the EVA polymerization plant has no pressure on inventory, the ex-factory price has increased, the mentality of merchants has been strengthened, and the offer has risen. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will continue to rise due to the gradual release of demand.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest fell from 3833.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3783.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.30%. The year-on-year decline was 10.63%. The calcium carbide commodity index on February 5 was 99.13, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 78.64% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The market price of upstream blue charcoal fell slightly, while the market price of downstream PVC fell slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1650 yuan/ton, and the cost support was insufficient. The market price of PVC this week increased from 6405 at the beginning of the week. 00 yuan/ton fell to 6250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 2.42%. 26.12% YoY. The PVC market price fell slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In the middle and late February, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the middle and late February, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range.

The price of acetic anhydride fell on February 6

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride was 5450 yuan/ton on February 6, down 0.46% from 5475 yuan/ton on February 3. The cost fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell.

Analysis points

The price of acetic acid tends to stabilize, the price of methanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride decreases, the start of acetic acid enterprises is stable, the supply of acetic acid is stable, the cost of acetic anhydride is weak and temporarily stable, the sales situation of acetic anhydride is poor, the downstream just needs to purchase, the customer’s purchase intention is general, and the wait-and-see is the main factor, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride still has a weakening upward momentum.

Future prospects

The demand for acetic anhydride is weak due to the decline of cost and the insufficient support for the rise of acetic anhydride. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of February 1, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 6900 yuan/ton, with a one-day increase of 18.97% on January 31, with a price increase of more than 1000 yuan/ton. The domestic DMF market price rose broadly and strongly, with a price increase of 12.2% compared with the same period last month, and a price increase of 20.52% compared with the same period last week. After the holiday, the overall market started at a high level, and the chemical market rose more or fell less, and the market price was at a high level.

The price of domestic DMF market is rising, with a wide rise, with a one-day increase of more than 1000 yuan per ton. The manufacturer has raised the price one after another, and the downstream mentality is confused. At present, replenishment is mainly needed, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market supply is sufficient, and the bullish mentality still exists. After the holiday, the operating rate is high, the installation is stable, and the one-day ultra-high rise is unexpected. The carrier’s mentality is positive, and the driving mood is not reduced, and the high price is frequent.

The upstream methanol market is in a weak position, and as of January 31, the narrow adjustment is the main trend. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 2520-2540 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Henan is 2650-2750 yuan/ton. The trend in the early stage is maintained in the short term, which has little impact on the downstream price.

The DMF commodity index was 113.11 on January 31, up 18.03 points from yesterday, down 63.10% from the cycle’s highest point of 306.56 (2021-10-24), and up 68.29% from the lowest point of 67.21 on February 21, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

DMF analysts of the Business Agency believe that in the short term, DMF will digest the early growth, or there may be a slight decline.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of nitric acid was 2450 yuan/ton on January 1 and 2516 yuan/ton on January 30, with a price increase of 2.72%.

On January 30, Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. produced 150000 concentrated acid annually, and the ex-factory price of 98 concentrated nitric acid was 2550 yuan/ton. The nitric acid market mostly shipped according to orders, and the inquiry gradually warmed up.

During 1.01-1.30, upstream liquid ammonia fell by 9.06%. Downstream aniline fell 2.93%, TDI rose 8.16%, potassium nitrate fell 0.21%, and ammonium nitrate rose 0.47%. Although the upstream liquid ammonia cost fell, the downstream TDI and ammonium nitrate prices rose, and the downstream market was dominated by inquiries. The nitric acid analyst of the business agency predicted that the nitric acid price might be dominated by shocks.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3850.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.59%. It was 15.69% lower than the same period last year. The carbide commodity index on January 15 was 100.87, which was the same as yesterday, down 52.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 81.78% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1450-1800 yuan/ton, and the cost support was average. The market price of PVC rose from 6155.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6216.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.00%. The year-on-year decrease was 24.92%. The PVC market price rose slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide will rise in the aftermarket or in shock

In late January, the carbide market rose mainly in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is good. The downstream PVC market has risen in a narrow range, and the downstream demand has increased. In late January, the price of calcium carbide in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

The price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3175 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The recent downstream demand is poor, and the trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

Supply side: production enterprises will gradually take holidays near the end of the year

The operating rate at the domestic supply side has declined. Although fluorite mines are still tense, mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. However, some fluorite flotation enterprises have stopped for holidays recently, and the purchase orders on the site are not active. Some enterprises still have some inventory. The manufacturers maintain the order price at the early stage, and the fluorite trend is stable.

Demand side: hydrofluoric acid price is temporarily stable, refrigerant market is low

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low this week. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions is 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Although some units in the north have been shut down recently, the hydrofluoric acid units in the south have operated stably, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order is not good. The fluorite purchase is not active, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is less than 30%. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is sufficient. The application field of R22 market is mainly based on demand, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 17000-1900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic R134a declined slightly, the price of trichloroethylene was low, and the focus of R134a trading remained low. At present, the market price of R134a is in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton. The demand for refrigerants in winter is weak, and under the pressure of cost and demand, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a are sluggish in the short term, and the demand of the refrigerant industry is poor, which causes the price of fluorite to remain temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panel, etc. In the long run, fluorite market still has some support as the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields pulls.

Aftermarket forecast: the supply of raw fluorite ore is still tight in the near future, but the demand of refrigerant industry is low, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable, the number of enterprises for holidays is increasing near the end of the year, and the short-term fluorite price remains stable; The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries have developed rapidly, and the demand for new fields has increased. In the long run, the fluorite market still has support.

From December 30 to January 6, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene dropped, from 5486 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5593 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.95%.

Crude oil: In the early morning of January 4, the minutes of the recent meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that the Federal Reserve was still committed to fighting inflation and intended to return the inflation rate to the target range of 2%, which indicated that the interest rate might remain high for a period of time until there was clear evidence that the consumer price index was falling. And according to the data of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), the Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the end of the meeting on February 1. The continued tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has greatly increased the risk that the United States and major developed economies around the world will fall into recession, which will then depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices. International crude oil futures rebounded on January 5. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 73.67 US dollars/barrel, up 0.83 US dollars or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 78.69 US dollars/barrel, up 0.85 US dollars or 1.1%.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton on January 4, 2023, and the current price is 6650 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly warmed at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly declined from October to December.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. After the festival, the crude oil and styrene market strengthened, supporting the market mentality, and adding to the market’s demand for stock before the festival, the pure benzene market rose slightly. Subsequently, Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene to 6650 yuan/ton. The crude oil price fell sharply near the end of the week, dragging down the market mentality, and the price of pure benzene fell again. The price of hydrogenated benzene was boosted by the market at the beginning of the week, driving the ex-factory price of enterprises in North China to 7000-7100 yuan/ton, boosting the market mentality.

The crude benzene market was boosted by the rise of pure benzene at the beginning of the week and the rise of hydrogenation benzene price. This week, the bidding price in Shandong increased by 210 yuan/ton to about 5680 yuan/ton. In terms of coking enterprises, the operating rate increased slightly this week, and the crude benzene supply was slightly loose as a whole. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises increased slightly this week, and some units were restarted, and the demand for crude benzene was moderately supported. In the future, the business agency believes that the current fundamental support is weak, the support of crude oil and pure benzene to the industrial chain is unclear, and the downstream demand performance is fair. In a comprehensive view, the pure benzene industry chain is mixed with good and bad, and there is still a certain demand for pre-holiday stock in the downstream near the holiday, which will bring some support to the market. In the short term, the pure benzene industry chain is operating steadily, moderately and strongly. In the future, the focus will be on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the actual demand in the downstream.