According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of steam coal fell first and then rose this month. The energy index stood at 1107 points on February 27, up 9 points from yesterday, down 29.08% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 116.63% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production at the beginning of the month, and the market supply increased, but the market trading atmosphere was general. The price of coal in main producing areas has declined, with the price reduction range ranging from 30-50 yuan/ton. Downstream production resumed, but steam coal was still mainly purchased on demand. The coal mine resumed production at the end of the month, and the market trading atmosphere was high. The number of coal hauling vehicles in the mine increased, and the transaction in the mine was good. In addition, an open-pit coal mine in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region collapsed in a large area, and the coal mine production in the later stage may become more strict, and the coal mine output may be affected.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales at the beginning of the month were average, the market quotation declined, and the enthusiasm for taking goods at the downstream was average, and the transaction was relatively weak. The port price rose in the last ten days, and the market activity increased. The trading and investment atmosphere in the market is fair, and the demand in the downstream increases. In addition, due to the commencement of construction after the year, the demand for steam coal has also increased compared with that before, and the price of steam coal in the port has risen. However, the downstream acceptance is low, and the deviation between the actual transaction and the quotation is large.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the industries above designated size in the whole year, the output of raw coal in 2022 will reach 4.56 billion tons, an increase of 10.5% over the previous year. The annual profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 8403.9 billion yuan, down 4.0% from the previous year. The profit of the mining industry was 1557.4 billion yuan, an increase of 48.6% over the previous year..

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the trading atmosphere in the production area is better than before, and the demand for coal has increased after the commencement of non-electricity demand. In terms of downstream ports, the daily consumption of power plants has also increased, and the shipment of traders is fair. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of steam coal will be stronger in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8447 yuan/ton on February 1, and the average price on February 28 was 8332 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.35% during the period, down 0.71% from January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9216 yuan/ton on February 1 and 9070 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 1.59% during the period, 0.33% lower than the price quoted on January 1.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8566 yuan/ton on February 1 and 8500 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of 0.78% during the period, up 0.39% from January 1.

In February, the domestic polyethylene price was dominated by weak operation. LLDPE continued to decline in the first half of the month, and rose and fell in the second half of the month; LDPE’s quotation in the first half of the month was mainly stable, while it rose and fell in the second half of the month; HDPE declined significantly in the first half of the month, and the quotation in the second half was mainly stable. Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have been put into operation successively, and the overall market supply is still loose. Starting from the beginning of February c, the operating rate of downstream enterprises increased, but mainly digested inventory. The market purchasing sentiment was not high, and orders were limited. Traders’ inventory pressure was high, and their prices fell. March is the traditional peak season. The operating rate of agricultural film, packaging film and other plastic downstream products increased, and orders increased.

The domestic polyethylene market has sufficient supply, and the demand for polyethylene market has recovered less than expected after the holiday. March is the traditional peak season, and the market demand is expected to be optimistic. It is expected that polyethylene will increase, but its rising space is limited.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 27, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, down 6.62% from the price of aluminum fluoride of 11325 yuan/ton on February 1. After the Spring Festival, the construction of aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February.

The price of raw materials fell in February

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 27, the price of fluorite was 3050 yuan/ton, down 3.37% from 3156.25 yuan/ton on February 1; As of February 27, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the price of 10000 yuan/ton on February 1. The price of raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell, the cost of aluminum fluoride dropped sharply, and the downward pressure on the price of aluminum fluoride increased.

Electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and fell in February

It can be seen from the price trend chart of electrolytic aluminum of the Business Club that the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18386.67 yuan/ton as of February 27, down 3.13% from the price of 18980 yuan/ton on February 1. After the holiday, the market of electrolytic aluminum recovered somewhat, but the overall market of aluminum was less than expected. The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell, the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell under great pressure.

Market overview and forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of the Business Society, the aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed their operations in February, and the supply of aluminum fluoride increased. The price trend of aluminum fluoride depends on the cost of raw materials and the demand for aluminum fluoride; In terms of raw materials, the price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell in February. In terms of demand, the market of electrolytic aluminum was lower than expected, the market of industrial chain was still weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was poor. In the future, the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak due to the decline in the cost of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

The price of DOP rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of DOP was 9960 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the price of 9920 yuan/ton on February 17. Cost pressure remains, and the DOP market rose slightly this week.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 24, the price of isooctanol was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from 9500 yuan/ton on February 17. Downstream demand is still weak. Downstream customers mostly replenish stocks on Monday and Tuesday. With the increase of replenishing stocks, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted this week. The cost support of DOP raw materials still exists, and the power of DOP price rise still exists.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 24, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8325 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the price of 8287.50 yuan/ton on February 17. The price of o-xylene rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride was strong. The price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, while the upward momentum of DOP remained.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, rose slightly this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride remained high, and the cost of DOP rose; The demand side support is limited, and the downstream is more likely to follow the fall to cover the stock. The DOP is mixed, and there is still a downside risk in the short term. In the future, DOP cost shock and consolidation demand support is limited, and DOP price shock and consolidation are expected.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 22, 2023, the market price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 8966 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, or 11.16%. On February 22, the domestic market price of propylene glycol was around 8800-9300 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that from February to now (2.1-2.22), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a steady upward trend. The main driving force supporting the continuous rise of the propylene glycol market is mainly from the joint support of raw material cost, on-site supply side inventory and demand. Let’s look at the supply, cost and demand of propylene glycol from February to now.

In terms of cost: the market of propylene oxide as raw material keeps rising, the support given by the cost of propylene glycol keeps increasing, and the focus of the propylene glycol market keeps getting closer.

In terms of supply: At present, domestic propylene glycol pre-holiday maintenance devices have been started in succession, and some factories mainly deliver export orders in the early stage, so the overall inventory of propylene glycol in the field is relatively controllable.

Demand: In February, the downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was gradually released. After the digestion of some downstream raw materials, the demand for propylene glycol market performed well at the stage, and the overall demand for propylene glycol was given some support.

Future trend analysis

At present, with the gradual warming of the weather, the downstream demand of the terminal will gradually recover. The propylene glycol field operators have expectations. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly continue to run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

From February 10 to February 17, 2023, the bidding price of crude benzene increased by a narrow margin, from 5593 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5681 yuan/ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.57%.

The crude oil in the week of February 17 fell for four consecutive trading days. The core logic is the supply and demand game under the influence of macro pressure, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is intensified. Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was US $76.55/barrel, down US $2.19 or 2.8%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.00/barrel, down US $2.14 or 2.5%. The market is worried that further interest rate hikes in the United States will drag down demand, and the oil market will suffer from a sharp increase in crude oil and refined oil storage. On the macro level, the US economic data showed strong performance, and the Fed officials made many statements to show hawkish behavior. The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 14th showed that the inflation situation in the United States rebounded in January, with CPI rising 6.4% year on year. The month-on-month increase was 0.5%, the highest since October 2022. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth exceeded the market consensus. The market worries that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates are rampant, which brings pressure to the crude oil market. According to the crude oil analysts of Business News, in the short term, the negative feedback of the market to the macro pressure is gradually digested, and the oil market’s falling space may be narrowed. The game between supply and demand will continue to dominate the market. In the future, the supply side needs to pay attention to the actual implementation of the re-release of reserves in the United States, and the demand side needs to pay attention to China’s crude oil imports and refined oil consumption.

The ex-factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on January 13, 2023, and the current price is 6950 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7330 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-column chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, slightly recovered at the end of August and the beginning of September, and the price mainly decreased from October to December, and recovered in January and fluctuated in February.

In the aspect of industrial chain: the price of pure benzene market this week was mainly volatile. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene market rose slightly under the boost of styrene market. The market negotiation atmosphere was good, the trading was positive, and there was a certain deal in the market. After the continuous decline of crude oil in the middle and late stages, the market mentality was dragged down, and the styrene market weakened. Under the dual impact, the pure benzene market was weak, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement slowed down, the overall market was weak, and the price declined slightly. The hydrogenation benzene market was mainly weak this week under the influence of the continuous decline of crude oil and the trend of the industrial chain, and the price of the main production area fell to about 6800 yuan/ton.

The crude benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week, with a slight increase. The main production area in Shandong Province is 5750 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly this week, and crude benzene supply was slightly loose. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market is still in operation, and the demand for crude benzene still exists. This week’s slight price increase was mainly affected by the overall high and volatile operation of the industrial chain. In general, crude benzene demand still exists, but the recent trend of crude oil fluctuates greatly, and the market guidance is insufficient. The price of hydrogenation benzene market is slightly down this week under the pressure of the downstream. It is expected that the crude benzene price will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range. The future market will focus on the impact of the trend of basic products such as crude oil and styrene on the market mentality.

This week, the lead market (2.10-217) fluctuated and fell. The average price of the domestic market was 15235 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and 15030 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.35%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in the peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the end of the peak season, the price continued to weaken, and the price rose slightly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, in terms of the macro aspect of the week, the U.S. CPI data in January fell less than expected, while the PPI data growth exceeded expectations, and the overall performance of the economic data was poor. The upward metal market of the US dollar index was generally under pressure. Affected by the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s continuous holiday, the futures market was volatile and fell during the week. Lun Lead fell more than 1%, with an operating range of 2020-2120 US dollars/ton, while Shanghai Lead fell 1.46%, with an operating range of 15050-15400 yuan/ton.

The spot market was generally down this week, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic market was relatively strong. With the end of the holiday, the smelter has basically resumed normal production. At present, the overall operation is relatively stable, and the renewable lead is also basically on the right track. However, due to the impact of corporate profits, the current operating rate of renewable lead is low, the overall supply of lead ingots is relatively stable, and the domestic stock accumulation is relatively obvious. In terms of demand, downstream battery enterprises have slightly increased their demand for lead ingots, but the overall demand for lead ingots is still based on demand. In general, the lead ingot market has basically returned to normal operation, and the market supply and demand have increased. This week, the price has declined under the dual impact of the macro superimposed inventory. It is expected that the future market will still remain volatile, mainly focusing on the macro impact.

February 17, 2022 London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory 25000 tons (unit: tons)

The non-ferrous index stood at 1175 points on February 19, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.60% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 93.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were three commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 7th week of 2023 (2.13-2.17). The top three commodities were titanium concentrate (2.09%), copper (1.46%) and antimony (0.58%). A total of 19 commodities fell on a month-on-month basis, with dysprosium oxide (- 4.44%), dysprosium ferroalloy (- 4.25%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 4.00%) among the top three products. This week’s average rise and fall was -1.44%.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is about 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 29%, and the external price of PX has fallen slightly recently. As of the 16th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 dollars/ton CFR China. The external price was negative for the domestic market. The recent operating rate of PX plants in Asia was normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene plants in Asia was about 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market was temporarily stable.

The price of crude oil rose slightly this week. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.49/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.14/barrel. The earthquake in Türkiye caused the interruption of transit crude oil exports, and the oil fields in Norway, Colombia and Kazakhstan reduced production to varying degrees, leading to the rise of crude oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report disclosed on February 15 that in the first half of 2023, the global oil supply is expected to exceed the demand, and the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate increase will help the trend of inflation to slow down. The growth of Asian demand has led to the rise of international oil prices, and the domestic paraxylene market price is temporarily stable due to the high crude oil price.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market declined this week. As of the 17th, the average price of the PTA market was 5500-5550 yuan/ton, down 1.77%. In terms of PTA supply, PTA starts this week are relatively stable. At present, the industry starts around 80%. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the PTA market price decline is limited. Many downstream polyester enterprises are still actively resuming work, the operating rate is in the process of gradual improvement, and the consumption of PTA is rising. In terms of terminal weaving, the operating rate is also in the process of seasonal increase. As of February 15, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has increased to more than 50%. However, because there was a round of centralized replenishment in the downstream before the Spring Festival, the stock of raw materials was mostly not low, and the order performance of the terminal was poor. The willingness and potential to continue replenishment after the year were low, and the recovery rate of demand was slow. On the whole, the downstream market recovered slowly, and the price trend of paraxylene was temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits, but the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. The terminal downstream operating rate will rise, the downstream demand is expected to rise, and the PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise slightly in the future.

Since February, the bisphenol A market has continued to decline and entered a downturn. Although the raw materials have continued to rise, the low demand of bisphenol A market has hardly changed. On February 1, the market negotiated at 10275 yuan/ton, and on February 16, the market negotiated 9700-9900 yuan/ton, and the market fell 3.04%. Under the game of market supply and demand and cost, it is difficult to break the situation.

Low demand is the main factor that makes it difficult to improve the bisphenol A market

It can be seen from the bisphenol A industry chain diagram that the downstream is mainly epoxy resin and PC products, and the supporting enterprises are mostly self-use. Although the operating rate of epoxy resin and PC in the downstream has increased significantly, and the consumption of bisphenol A has increased, the demand side of epoxy resin and PC is insufficient, and the market is in a continuous downturn, with fewer terminal purchase orders. In addition, it is difficult to maintain contracts for the digestion of raw materials, and it is difficult to have outsourcing plans, and the demand side is difficult to support bisphenol A.

The double raw material phenol/acetone continued to rise, and the falling space of bisphenol A narrowed under the pressure of cost.

The raw phenol continues to rise. Affected by the relatively small number of port arrivals and the shortage of port stocks and the expected improvement of exports, the phenol market performance is strong, and the factory has repeatedly raised the listing price under the pressure of cost. On the 16th, Sinopec East China phenol listing price was again raised by 100 to implement 8150 yuan/ton, and the reference of the East China market was 8100-8150 yuan/ton. Although the market transaction was flat after the terminal demand just needed to follow up, the export and the latest arrival of the port were delayed to March and other news, The phenol market remains high in the short term. Acetone, another important raw material, continued to rise. On the one hand, the external market rose and the export was expected to improve. On the other hand, the downstream products were profitable and acceptable for high-priced raw materials. In February, the acetone market in East China continued to rise. The domestic acetone market was quoted at 5195 yuan/ton on February 2 and 5587 yuan/ton on February 16, up 7.56%. Sinopec North China continued to raise 200 yuan/ton to 5650-5700 yuan/ton on February 16. The short-term acetone market remained high and firm.

The supply is sufficient, and the pressure on traders to ship goods increases.

At present, the operating rate of bisphenol A industry is between 80% and 90%. In addition, there are many new capacity before, and under the high operating rate, the supply of bisphenol A spot market is sufficient. Most of the two main downstream of bisphenol A are supporting devices. Under the situation of terminal downturn, the downstream mostly digested the limited amount of contracted off-contract production, and it is difficult to have demand for the market flow of goods. Under the pressure of traders’ shipment, there is a real intention of continuous yield.

From the perspective of the business community, under the downturn of market demand, in the game of cost and supply and demand, the recent bisphenol A market is difficult to break. The raw material phenol/acetone continues to rise, the cost of bisphenol A plant is online and offline, and the market focus has stopped falling in the short term, while the demand side is difficult to be stimulated by good news. It is expected that bisphenol A will fluctuate with a high probability around the cost, and will continue to pay attention to the raw material market situation and downstream demand information in the later stage.

441 # silicon price trend

The spot price of silicon metal continued to show a downward trend this week. Affected by the slow recovery of demand after the Lantern Festival, downstream inquiries increased, and prices stopped falling near Friday, while some specifications stopped falling and went up. As of February 10, the average price of domestic 441 # silicon metal market was 17930 yuan/ton, down 0.22% month-on-week. The futures market rose mainly on Wednesday and Thursday, closing at 17955 yuan/ton for the whole week, with a weekly increase of 1.18%.

The price of 441 # silicon in each region on the 10th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17700-18000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 17600-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 17800-18100 yuan/ton, with an average of 17950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17600-17700 yuan/ton, with an average of 17650 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18500 yuan/ton.

Influential factors of falling price of metal silicon

Supply:

The total number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 317. As of February 10, the silicon metal furnace opening rate was about 44.59%, 147 in Xinjiang, 27 in Sichuan and 52 in Yunnan. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continue to increase supply. The cost pressure in Southwest China is significant, and the operating rate is low, especially in Sichuan.

Demand:

Polycrystalline silicon rebounded sharply, with the mainstream price range of 215-240000 yuan/ton, up 13.9% in the week. The unit operating rate of silicon material enterprises remains at the normal level, but after the festival, the silicon wafer manufacturers start to work, and the demand surges, and the silicon material manufacturers generally push up, and the price in the later stage may continue to narrow due to demand constraints; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 19400 yuan/ton. The demand of aluminum alloy enterprises recovered slowly, and the consumption of new energy vehicles in the downstream was depressed; The domestic silicone DMC market started to rise, with the price reference at 17140 yuan/ton. Organosilicon profits were repaired, and the enthusiasm of the downstream was improved. It is expected that it will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, at present, the supply side of silicon metal has maintained a preliminary pattern, with the high starting point in the north and the low spot price in the southwest. The demand for organosilicon on the demand side has gradually improved, and the construction has been repaired; The polysilicon industry chain remained prosperous and the demand for metallic silicon continued to improve. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that short-term metal silicon price support appears and there are signs of stabilizing.