Overview of 441 # silicon price trend

This week, the spot price of metal silicon remained weak, with a decline of around 300-400 yuan/ton, which was somewhat larger than last week. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 17230 yuan/ton, down 2.43% on a weekly basis. In the spot market, downstream demand is poor, manufacturers’ bearish sentiment increases, and high inventories lead to low price selling. The futures market fell significantly this week, falling 4.95% to close at 16120 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17100-17300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 17100-17300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 16900-17000 yuan/ton, with an average of 16950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17000-17100 yuan/ton, with an average of 17050 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 17700-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17750 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price of Metallic Silicon

On the supply side:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 341. As of March 17, it is understood that the silicon metal furnace opening rate was about 47.63%, with 157 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 27 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 55 furnaces opened in Yunnan.

Demand:

After rising, polysilicon stabilized, with the mainstream range reaching 20.0-2.20 million/ton, and the domestic supply price generally declined by 5000 yuan/ton. The supply side has not changed much, and the operating rate of the enterprise has maintained a medium to high level. One enterprise is engaged in device maintenance.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation was 18700 yuan/ton. The demand in the downstream automotive terminal industry is poor, and there is no significant improvement in the start of aluminum alloy construction, and the procurement of metal silicon remains in just demand.

The domestic silicone DMC market as a whole has shown a continuous weak decline, with a market price reference of 16440 yuan/ton. The overall downstream demand is weak, the supply and demand transmission is slow, and the lack of follow-up on new orders is difficult to support the relatively high price of silicone DMC after its early rise. Organosilicon factories are again facing pressure to lose money, and monomer factories may reduce production again, reducing the demand for industrial silicon.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the contradiction between supply and demand for metallic silicon is fierce, and downstream demand is poor. This week, the prices of polysilicon, aluminum alloy, and organosilicon DMC have all decreased, and the negative feedback pressure of demand continues to transmit to metallic silicon. At the same time, the weekly opening of the supply end has increased slightly, and the output continues to increase. As the pressure for silicon factories to go to the warehouse is high, it is expected that metal silicon will continue to operate in a weak manner in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has increased significantly this week, with the average market price rising from 176.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 198.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 12.50%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 41.98%. On March 19th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index stood at 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26), and up 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support is good, while downstream procurement is average

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose sharply this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has increased significantly, and cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price decreased slightly, dropping from 1902.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1877.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.31%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 20.06%; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, with a decrease of 0.21% from 1205.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1202.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week. Overall, upstream support is good, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Aftermarket Forecast

In late March, the market price of hydrochloric acid may mainly fall in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has slightly declined, while the ammonium chloride market has slightly declined, and the downstream purchasing willingness is general. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid has been mainly subject to a small fluctuation and decline in recent years.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the isopropanol market fell in a volatile manner this week. Last Friday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6890 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 0.58% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market for isopropanol fluctuated and fell. At present, the market situation is general, and downstream buying operations are cautious, more wait-and-see, and primarily on demand. The price of acetone rose this week, with acceptable cost support. Up to now, most quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6600-6900 yuan/ton; Most quotations for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

Regarding raw material acetone, the acetone market rose this week. Last Friday, the average price of acetone in Shandong was 6080 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 6210 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 2.14%. Spot supply continues to be tight, traders’ offers continue to be strong and upward, and terminal demand has not significantly improved. Procurement is mainly based on demand.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell this week. Last Friday, the average price of propylene in Shandong was 7464.6 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 7300.6 yuan/ton. During the week, the price was reduced by 2.2%. Currently, the price of propylene in the market is low, and the downstream is mostly wait-and-see, just in need of procurement.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has increased, while the price of propylene has decreased. The support for raw materials is acceptable, while downstream demand is relatively light, procurement is cautious, and there is more wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the stable operation of the isopropanol market will prevail.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the overall market turnover was stable this week, the manufacturer’s shipment volume was not large, the quotation was maintained, and the goods in some regions showed signs of weakness, and the market mentality continued to wait and see. As of March 10, the average market price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 13200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, down 8.81% year-on-year. The average market price of polyester and cotton yarn was 17560 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week, down 17.40% year-on-year.

This week, the overall volume of yarn market was stable, the manufacturer’s shipment volume was small, the quotation was maintained, the center of gravity was stable, and there were signs of weakening in some regions. The market mentality was cautious and hard to hide. In the near future, domestic fast sales orders have been delivered in a large number, and some yarn mills have arranged orders for machines until May. There are many orders for sample development and small orders, but the quantity of export orders and long-term demand orders is insufficient. The market’s subsequent power is doubtful, and enterprises are worried about the future market. There is differentiation in the performance of textile enterprises. Some textile enterprises have long orders, and some textile enterprises have few orders. Orders for woven and knitted polyester yarn are flexible, and some eddy current yarns are mainly sold at low prices. At present, the level of spinning costs is still low, and the profits of textile enterprises are falling.

This week, the transaction of pure polyester yarn was still light, the market changed little, and the price remained stable. The trading atmosphere of polyester yarn in Xiaoshao area is flat, of which the 32s and 50s markets are not smooth, compared with the 45s trading volume, which is mainly used for woven production of polyester cotton lining series. At present, on the market, woven T21S is priced at 11000-11300 yuan/ton ex-factory including tax, and the transaction is negotiable. The price of pure polyester yarn in Fujian has been consolidated. The focus of T32S negotiation is around 11500, including short delivery of tax. The price of some traders is low, and the goods are generally sold. The price of pure polyester yarn in Jiangxi was maintained and the goods were weak. The polyester and cotton yarn is generally sold, the price remains stable, and the turnover is not large. In Fujian, TC65/35 32S overpaid 16000-16300 yuan/ton, a lower 15800 yuan; CVC60/40 32S reported 1900-19500 yuan/ton, which was 18800 yuan lower.

This week, crude oil futures continued to fluctuate, and the polyester staple fiber market continued to fluctuate. The fall in the price of short-term polyester raw materials weakened the staple fiber cost support, and it is expected to be weak in the short term. Zheng cotton futures fluctuated little, and the bearish atmosphere of forward cotton prices appeared. The overall transaction of cotton spot was light, and only a few cotton merchants had relatively good spot shipments. Textile enterprises had low acceptance of high-price cotton, and textile enterprises had low orders. The instability of raw materials also makes traders unstable and lack confidence in replenishment.

Downstream grey fabric market shipments were slow, new orders from weaving mills were few, and the prices of conventional products were low. This year, the market situation in Guangdong is slightly better than that in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and domestic demand is better than export market. The downstream printing and dyeing factory can process the products, and the delivery time is 7 days or more.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the market continues to be weak, the transaction is poor, the order execution of some cotton mills ends, the inventory pressure increases, the price of some specifications falls, and there are low-price resources. The price of polyester yarn fluctuates with raw materials, and it is difficult to rise or fall. If the downstream fabric and clothing exports are not improved, the pressure of the yarn mill is difficult to reduce, and it is expected that there will be a moderate adjustment trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic MTBE market continued to rise. From March 6 to 10, the price of MTBE rose from 7170 yuan/ton to 7412 yuan/ton, with a 3.38% increase in price during the cycle, a 7.06% month-on-month increase in price and a 8.89% year-on-year decrease. Due to the overhaul of some devices in Shandong Province and the export orders of some factories, the spot supply was once significantly reduced, the effect of tight supply and price rise was boosted, and the merchants actively pushed up the price. The price increase of enterprises in the week was about 50-200 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost and crude oil: the international oil price fell, and the main negative factors were: the market worried that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates or turn to more aggressive strategies, which would put pressure on the economy and demand. MTBE cost side is temporarily negative.

On the demand side, as the weather warms, the demand for gasoline follows up and the demand for raw materials continues. MTBE demand is obviously positive.

As of the close of March 9, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by 1.50 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 946.99-948.99 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by US $8.50/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB ARA closed at US $1000.99-1001.49/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by 14.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 1187.46-1187.82 US dollars/ton (334.50-334.60 US cents/gallon).

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Singapore/ 946.99-948.99 USD/ton./1.5 USD/ton

Europe/ FOB ARA./ 1000.99-1001.49 USD/ton./8.5 USD/ton

United States/ FOB Bay/ 1187.46-1187.82 dollars/ton./14.66 dollars/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the spot supply will gradually shrink, the gasoline sales will be OK, and the downstream demand will remain. The MTBE analysts of the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3483.33 yuan/ton. The year-on-year decrease was 17.72%. The carbide commodity index on March 12 was 91.27, which was the same as yesterday, down 56.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 64.48% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region was temporarily stable this week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. This week, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1300-1400 yuan/ton, and the cost support is average. The market price of PVC fell by 0.35% from 6246.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6225.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The year-on-year decline was 30.83%. The PVC market price fell slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In the middle and late March, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the middle and late March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range, mainly through consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market is stable and wait-and-see. From March 6 to 10, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China remained at 9516 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month drop of 0.87% and a year-on-year drop of 18.43%. The raw material pure benzene is relatively strong, and the cost support is good. At the same time, some cyclohexanone shipments are reduced, and the supply is good, but the terminal demand is weak. The downstream chemical fiber just needs to follow up, and the transaction is average.

In terms of cost, the domestic market price of pure benzene has risen, and Sinopec’s pure benzene has been listed twice for an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The spot transaction in East China was 7280-7320 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong Refinery was 7220-7260 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The supply side of cyclohexanone in the short term is difficult to have positive factors.

On the demand side, the price of caprolactam was basically stable, and the upstream pure benzene market maintained a rising trend. However, the overall supply of caprolactam is slightly loose, and the market atmosphere is relatively cautious. The downstream polymerization plants basically maintain the pace of on-demand procurement, and the spot transaction of caprolactam is stable. The demand for cyclohexanone has not changed significantly.

According to the future forecast, the supply of commodity volume in the market is small and the terminal demand is weak. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market was dominated by fluctuations.

According to the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8050.00 yuan/ton as of February 28, up 4.55% from February 1.

The acrylic acid market rose first and then fell in February. In the first ten days, the price of raw material propylene rose, the cost support increased, the industry inventory was low, and the downstream market returned, the demand gradually increased, the market inquiry was positive, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation was steadily improved. In the middle and late ten days, the raw material propylene market was shaken and sorted out, and the cost support remained. The supply side production enterprises’ device load was not high, which supported the market rise. The market transaction was just needed. After the rise, the downstream procurement mentality was cautious, the terminal demand followed up slowly, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was general, and the focus of the acrylic acid market negotiation was loose.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the reference price of propylene was 7426.60 on February 27, down 1.38% from February 1 (7530.75).

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the current price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the market is wait-and-see operation, and the downstream demand is gradually warming up. With the support of the supply and demand side, the acrylic acid market is expected to be stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with February 27, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, or 0.38%.

In early March, the domestic butanone market continued its weak trend at the end of February. This week (2.27-3.3), the domestic butanone market continued to decline slightly. The downstream demand performance of butanone has not improved much this week, while the demand side is still weak. The trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and the attitude of the operators is general. Some butanone suppliers have lowered the delivery price of butanone, and the overall focus of the butanone market has declined slightly around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8300-8700 yuan/ton, and the price at the higher end was around 9000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of butanone

At present, although the overall increase of new orders in the butanone market is general, the overall market has entered the downward channel for several days, and the market is expected to continue to decline significantly in the short term. The butanone statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes in the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly this week. On February 27, the price of pure benzene was 7000-7470 yuan/ton (the average price was 7235 yuan/ton). On Thursday (March 2), the price of pure benzene was 7100-7420 yuan/ton (the average price was 7260 yuan/ton), up 0.69% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market.

The price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7100 yuan/ton this week (the price in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, which would add to the sharp increase in the United States refined oil storage. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and the weakening of energy demand, and the short-term market will remain volatile. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of OPEC+’s latest production policy, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Although worried about the possible impact of interest rate hikes in Europe on economic growth, the demand for Indian refineries has reached a record high, and China’s economic data is improving, and international oil prices continue to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract was 78.16 USD/barrel, up 0.47 USD/barrel or 0.60%; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract was 84.75 USD/barrel, up 0.44 USD/barrel or 0.52%. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures 2304 fell 1.4 yuan to 554.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.1 yuan to 566.5 yuan/barrel in the evening.

The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue to operate in a weak way in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.