Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3083.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 25.40% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 80.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 45.59% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market maintained stable operation, and the downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250-1400 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5994.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.20%. Compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 33.18% year-on-year. The PVC market price fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late April, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal remains stable and the cost support is average. The downstream PVC market has been weak and there is insufficient downstream demand. In late April, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

From April 7, 2023 to April 14, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi Province fell again. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price was 4750 yuan/ton last weekend, and 4620 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 2.74%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly coal tar K column chart above, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months, and the price has risen since February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market fell for six consecutive weeks, the price gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and began to decline continuously at the end of February.

On April 13, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 162.67, down 1.12 points from yesterday, down 29.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 245.01% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

In this cycle, the deep-processing industry saw both gains and losses, most of which fell. The purchase of tar remained just in demand. This week, the auction price of coal tar in the mainstream market fell, of which the price in Shanxi was 4550-4600 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than the auction price last week.

Supply: The operating rate of coking enterprises is steadily increasing, and the supply of tar is stable

Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the process of coke production. Monitoring the operation of coking enterprises can intuitively understand the supply of coal tar. From the figure above, we can see that since February 2023, the operation rate of coking enterprises has continued to rise steadily. At present, the operation rate is close to 80% of the peak season. At present, the supply of coal tar is relatively adequate. Due to the recent decline in coking coal prices, coking enterprises have experienced a decrease in furnace entry costs and a recovery in profits. The operating rate has continued to slightly increase this week.

Demand: Prices of deeply processed products mostly decrease

Demand: Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. In this cycle, only industrial naphthalene is higher for deep processing commodities, while the prices of other commodities are mainly lower. The overall atmosphere of the industrial chain is relatively weak, and the operating rate remains at a relatively normal level. There is still a strong demand for the tar market. Tar auction prices have mostly declined this week due to the drag of downstream products.

On April 14th, the Japanese weekly auction basically ended, and the prices of tar in the main domestic production areas were mixed. The mainstream prices in Shanxi were between 4500-4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. In the Shandong region, it is at 4650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, there is a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from 4550 to 4600 yuan/ton. The price in Henan region is 4600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 120 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, the price of tar has declined for 6 weeks and reached a new low for the year. Last week, the slight rebound in prices in Shanxi did not drive the market trend this week. Due to the trend of downstream commodities and future expectations, tar prices are difficult to be optimistic. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a small amount of pre holiday stocking demand in the downstream according to plan. In the future, the business community believes that with the support of stocking in the short term, tar prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range, and the long-term trend will depend on the actual downstream demand.

In March 2023, demand fell short of expectations, downstream procurement was cautious, and the market performance of viscose staple fibers was calm. Prices were basically stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The factory remained firm and stable in price, and negotiations were held for slight discounts. A new round of quotes for imported broadleaf dissolved pulp from upstream raw materials has been introduced, at $920 per ton, which is unchanged from last month. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, with sufficient supply. The downstream market for human cotton yarn remains stable, and the downstream demand for human cotton yarn is still mainly for procurement. The transaction atmosphere is relatively average, and the start of construction is basically maintained, but the recovery is not as expected. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the end market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive staple fiber in China was 13320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the price was basically stable.

In March 2023, the downstream market for human cotton yarn continued to operate steadily, and the downstream demand for human cotton yarn was still the main demand for procurement. The transaction atmosphere was relatively average, and the start of construction was basically maintained, but the recovery was not as expected. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the end market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, as of March 31st, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class product) was 17666 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Future Market Forecast

The market supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall purchasing and sales atmosphere in the short-term market is limited. Large viscose staple fiber factories still focus on executing preliminary orders. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, analysts from Business Society predict that the prices of viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn may continue to remain stable in the short term, and the market is waiting for or will introduce a new round of pricing policies.

In March, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the monthly decline of adipic acid was 5.61%, indicating a significant decline in the market trading focus. Currently, the market quotation range for adipic acid is 9500-9800 yuan/ton, which is about 300-500 yuan lower than the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is increased supply and relatively low demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this month, the adipic acid industry chain as a whole is weak, with upstream pure benzene maintaining a range of fluctuations. Although prices have risen, the range is limited, and cyclohexanone has dropped by 0.25% in a volatile manner. Downstream demand is sluggish, and product trends have not changed significantly. PA66 continues to descend. Maintain in a relatively weak range.

Supply side: Continuous restart of devices and increased supply have accumulated inventory for enterprises

Market supply: In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to rise this month, and by the end of the month, the market had recovered from 60% at the beginning of the month to 70%. Supply has increased significantly this month, and the accumulation of large factories has led to a gradual decline in prices.

Demand side: no improvement in demand and weak support

The downstream of adipic acid maintains rigid demand, with weak market sentiment, high social inventory, and limited digestion. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and sporadic orders are needed to ensure normal startup requirements. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring of the Business Agency, PA66 continued to decline this month, with a range of 2.36%, hovering at the bottom of the market. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is around 20500-21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors have also performed poorly, with caprolactam mainly declining, TPU weak adjustment, and the supply and demand game intensifying.

Cost side: weak performance of pure benzene and cyclohexanone

The upside of upstream pure benzene is not very good, and this month, there has been a weak range of shocks, and the market has not emerged from a significant trend. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, pure benzene rose 1.95% this month. Due to partial overhaul of domestic devices, inventory decline has supported prices. Near the end of the month, the price of pure benzene in East China is in the range of 7150-7200 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone fell slightly. Although the decline this month was only 0.25%, it has been declining for two consecutive months, with the cumulative market decline exceeding 3%. Overall, the cost side is mixed.

Future prospects

Adipic acid analysts from Business News believe that, in terms of cost, there are still macro factors affecting crude oil in the near future, with a high probability of severe shocks. The impact rate on the domestic chemical market may remain weak, and it is difficult for upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone to perform well. Overall, the game between supply and demand will continue. From the perspective of the supply side, the two units faced maintenance in April, and the supply pressure may ease in the later stage. However, it is difficult for the demand side materials to improve significantly. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid is expected to continue the weak market.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of shipments in the domestic market, as an example, according to monitoring of bulk commodity data, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide on March 1 was 16683.33 yuan/ton, and on February 27, the average price was 17116.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.6% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic titanium dioxide market price increased. In March, the titanium dioxide market was relatively good, with many new inquiries, an increase in actual transactions, and low market inventory. Some manufacturers have temporarily closed orders, and enterprises have a large number of orders in hand, resulting in a significant reluctance to sell. The market quotation is firm and upward. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 16500-18500 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region rose this month. At present, the spot supply of titanium concentrate market is tight, and enterprises often deliver preliminary orders. The order in hand has been scheduled until next month. Miners are obviously reluctant to sell, and they are more wait-and-see, with stable and upward prices on the market. Up to now, the quoted price excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium intermediate ore is around 1520-1550 yuan/ton, the quoted price excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2180-2300 yuan/ton, and the quoted price for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate is relatively strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price is subject to single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose first and then fell in March. Overall, the market price of sulfuric acid fell by 1.31% in March. The price at the end of the month decreased 77.61% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the Business Society, the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer from a small fluctuation and decline under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main factor.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of titanium concentrates in Panxi region increased this month. The cost support for titanium dioxide is acceptable. Currently, the domestic titanium dioxide market has a good trading situation, while export orders have performed well and on-site inventory is low. It is expected that titanium dioxide will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

From March 17 to March 24, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi Province was significantly reduced. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the average market price for the weekend last week was 5012.5 yuan/ton, while the average market price for the weekend this week was 4705 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6.13%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a histogram. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K column indicates the range of fluctuation. From the above monthly coal tar K-column chart, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has been declining for three consecutive months, and prices have started to rise since February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has been declining for six consecutive weeks, with prices gradually recovering after the Spring Festival, and has been declining for five consecutive weeks since the end of February.

The coal tar (high-temperature) commodity index on March 23 was 171.12, down 1.72 points from yesterday, down 26.07% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 points (2022-11-09), and up 262.93% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

This week, the bidding price of coal tar in Shanxi Province was mainly down, with the mainstream implementation of 4650-4750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250-350 yuan/ton compared to last week’s auction price. This week, the trend of commodities in the deep processing industry is mainly downward, and the purchase of tar remains just in demand. Under the influence of lower purchasing intentions in the downstream, coking enterprises have been selling out profits this week, resulting in a significant decrease in the overall auction price and a weaker overall market atmosphere.

Supply: High and stable operating rate of coking enterprises, stable tar supply

Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the production process of coke. Monitoring the operation of coking enterprises can provide a visual understanding of the supply of coal tar. From the above figure, we can see that since 2023, the operation rate of coking enterprises has continued to rise steadily, and significantly increased in mid February. According to the business community, the current operation rate of coking enterprises remains around 75%, and the overall supply of coal tar is relatively sufficient, Referring to the data from previous years, after the end of the heating season in March, coking enterprises will enter the peak production season, and the operating rate will continue to steadily increase, with a relatively sufficient supply of tar in the future.

Demand: The price of deeply processed products has fallen, but they are still in demand

Demand: Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the coal tar deep processing industry. Since March, the prices of commodities related to deep processing have been lowered for three consecutive weeks, and the downstream industry has become increasingly resistant to high-priced raw materials, resulting in a further decline in its ability to receive goods. Due to the drag of demand, the tar price has been lowered for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 550-600 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the deep processing industry has basically maintained a normal level of around 50%, and there is still a strong demand for tar.

On March 24th, the auction of the Japanese week basically ended, and the tar price in the main domestic production areas was mainly down, but each underground adjustment range was different. The decline in Shanxi region was relatively large, with a significant price difference compared to other regions. The mainstream price in Shanxi is 4650-4750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 250-350 yuan/ton. In Shandong, it is 5000 yuan/ton, down by about 50 yuan/ton. In Hebei, the price is between 4850-4900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton. In Henan Province, it is 4950-4980 yuan/ton, down 100-130 yuan/ton.

In the future, as the weather turns warmer, the starting of coking enterprises should gradually increase to more than 80% based on previous years, and the market expects the overall supply of coal tar to be in a normal and relatively loose state. The overall operating rate of the downstream deep processing industry is relatively stable, and there is still a rigid demand for coal tar. However, with the weak price trend of deep processing products, there is a strong mentality to suppress tar. In the future, the business community believes that in the light of loose supply expectations and a downward pressure on prices, the coal tar market is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the price trend of downstream industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, and coal tar.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

From the p-xylene trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic p-xylene factory price was 8500 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.60%.

The domestic paraxylene supply is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is around 70%. The external dependence of PX products is around 29%, and the recent external price trend of PX has increased. As of the 23rd, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market is 1059-1061 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1084-1086 dollars/ton CFR China. The external price rise is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been normal. Overall, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is around 60%, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of crude oil this week has increased slightly. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $69.96/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $75.50/barrel. Recently, the demand for crude oil in China and Asia continues to recover, coupled with the easing of the pressure of the banking crisis, and the low rebound in the oil market. The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25bp, which meets market expectations and indicates that the pace of interest rate hikes will be suspended. The decline of the US dollar has supported the rise of oil prices, while crude oil prices have slightly warmed up, and the price trend in the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week, with the average PTA market price at 6050-6100 yuan/ton as of the 24th, and the price increase for this week was 4.06%. In terms of PTA supply, the PTA device load slightly increased to over 76%, with supply increasing slightly. However, in March, the supply was mostly concentrated in the hands of a few traders, and some traders closed their orders. The downstream polyester maintenance stage is on the high side, but production and sales are poor, and the demand for PTA is weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been lowered to below 70%. In addition, foreign trade orders are still not improving, the factory feedback is insufficient for new orders, and the textile factory terminal foreign trade orders are shrinking. Overall, the downstream market is slowly recovering, and the price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current oil market is playing a long and short game, and the recovery of demand in Asia has brought some benefits. However, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States still exists, and the oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. Although the terminal downstream market is still facing insufficient demand and uncertain foreign trade prospects, there are expectations of overhaul of some paraxylene units in the near future, and supply will decline at that time. In addition to the rising price trend in the PTA market, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene may rise in the future.

This week (3.20-24), the domestic ammonia market continued to decline, with prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu dropping to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of Friday, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 3.24%, which was slower than last week. The main supply performance is tolerant, and under the pressure of accumulated inventory, enterprises continue to adjust and reduce, adding to the negative agricultural demand window, resulting in a continuous decline in prices due to the imbalance between market supply and demand. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3900-4050 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers continues to pick up, especially in the northern region, where manufacturers and devices operate normally. Large factories have accumulated inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously reduce their listing prices. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, manufacturers in Shandong generally lowered their listing prices by 100-200 yuan/ton during the week. Many devices in the southern region have resumed production, and the supply increase has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the ammonia market reversed its previous supply shortage situation in the last ten days. On the one hand, agricultural demand turned weak, and industrial demand could not follow up in a timely manner. Since the middle of the month, the price of liquid ammonia has gradually fallen from its high point. In terms of downstream urea, according to monitoring by the Business News Agency, urea continued its decline, with a weekly decline of 0.31%. Due to the withdrawal of agricultural demand and the end of the peak season of returning green fertilizer, the procurement volume of composite fertilizer and board market declined. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remained negative. In particular, the price of liquefied natural gas has fallen by 3.58% this week, following a sharp 7.3% drop last week. The sharp decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on southwest gas head ammonia companies, providing ammonia companies with conditions for price reduction sales under the generally light market volume. The coal market has maintained a weak range of adjustment, with prices hovering at a relatively low level. Overall, the negative pressure on the cost side of the ammonia market is high.

Future Forecast:

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that from the supply side, the decline in ammonia prices has decreased this week, and some ammonia companies may switch to urea production or alleviate the supply pressure in the ammonia market. The downward space for the future ammonia market is limited. In the future, the demand side will still face pressure, with agricultural demand stagnating and industrial demand lagging behind. Therefore, supply and demand are still weak in the near future. Adding to the negative impact of downstream pressure on upstream feed gas, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a weak volatility pattern in the short term.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was flat compared to the price of 4380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend has been stable, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices have been operating stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site has been normal, and the situation of goods on the site is normal. The manufacturer’s inventory is not high, and the price trend of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal has declined. In addition, the price trend of nitric acid has been stable, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has been temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is normal, and the procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry is average. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started operations high, and the recent price of ammonium nitrate is still mainly stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China this week is temporarily stable, with the average domestic nitric acid price of 2466.67 yuan/ton as of the 24th, which is unchanged from the price of 2466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants has been stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market has been normal, and the on-site shipment situation is good. Recently, the price trend of nitric acid in the market has been stable, and the stable price of raw material nitric acid is beneficial to the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia declined this week, with the price of liquid ammonia reaching 3983.33 yuan/ton as of the weekend, down 4.17% from 4156.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Lianghu have all declined. Recently, maintenance enterprises in central and southern China have concentrated on resuming production of devices, resulting in a surge in supply, which is compounded by a negative agricultural demand window. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market has led to a significant price decline. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3900-4000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of around 200 yuan/ton. The decline in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand in the downstream civil explosive industry has weakened, the price trend of liquid ammonia market has declined, the price trend of nitric acid has temporarily stabilized, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst from the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the butadiene market first rose and then fell, and overall declined. From March 10th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 9166 yuan/ton to 9041 yuan/ton, with a 1.36% drop in price during the cycle. The price fell 8.39% month on month and 10.59% year on year.

At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s external quotation was raised, which once boosted the mentality of businesses. However, with the production of Dongming Petrochemical Unit and the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2, the market supply has increased significantly, while the main downstream Chuanhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant contradiction between supply and demand, and the butadiene market has turned downward.

In terms of cost and crude oil, international crude oil has plummeted continuously, with Brent falling by more than 10%. The impact of pessimism has spread, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. In terms of naphtha, the Shandong naphtha market rose and fell, causing a downward trend. Negative impact on butadiene cost.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene in Sinopec’s sales companies rose first and then fell, with a cumulative decrease of 100 yuan/ton and a execution of 9100 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 t/a butadiene extraction unit has been operating steadily, with 900 tons of supply for secondary bidding and export, with a bidding base price of 8000 yuan/ton; The transaction price is at 8220 yuan/ton. The butadiene supply side showed a negative impact.

On the demand side, the main downstream of butadiene showed a downward trend, with the largest decline in nitrile rubber being 400 yuan/ton. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external market: On March 16th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia fell: FOB South Korea quoted 1145-1155 US dollars per ton, down 30 US dollars per ton; China CFR reported a decrease of $20 per ton from $1175-1185 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 845-855 USD/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 875-885 euros per ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing Price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea./ US $1145-1155/ton/ -30 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ 1175-1185 USD/ton/ -$20/ton

Europe and the United States/ FOB Rotterdam/ 845-855 USD/ton/ $0/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 875-885 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the device will be restarted and new capacity will be put into production, while the downstream product market will decline. Butadiene analysts from the Business Agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.