According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China rose from 7342 yuan/ton to 7457 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.56% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 28.69%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry continues to decline, and transportation in Xinjiang is slow, resulting in a shortage of market supply. The main supplier of the goods is the contract order, and the spot quantity is limited. The mainstream quotation is on the rise.

On the supply side, with the shutdown of a set of equipment in Inner Mongolia and the extension of 15 days for oil replacement, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has once again declined, and the market supply of goods is favorable.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: Recently, with the increase in supply and downstream maintenance, there has been a significant increase in market supply, leading to a decline in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. As of 10:00 am on October 18th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2445 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is rising, while methanol prices are narrowly declining, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PU slurry, and TPU have seen an increase in load, while other downstream industries such as PBT and PBAT have seen a decrease in load, and most industries are in a loss making state with limited ability to accept high prices. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

In the future forecast, the industry’s capacity utilization rate will still be at a low level, the market supply of goods will continue to be tight, and the profit intention of suppliers will actively support the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is expected to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine decreased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 20660 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.93%. On September 29th, the bromine commodity index was 69.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 71.58% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 18.26% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine has declined this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong is currently around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. With the decrease in weather and rainfall, the maintenance enterprises affected by rainfall in the early stage began to resume production, resulting in an increase in bromine production and the supplementation of imported bromine. The overall supply of bromine is relatively sufficient. The demand for main downstream flame retardants is weak. Weak shipments, dominated by bearish factors. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply and weak demand, bromine prices continue to decline.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur remained weak in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1435 yuan/ton, and at the end of use, the average market price was 1397.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 37.48%. The transaction atmosphere in the sulfur market is average, and downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to their needs.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have been weak recently. Recently, the overall supply of bromine has been stable and the source of goods is sufficient. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply leads to weak demand, and the comprehensive prediction of short-term bromine prices or market consolidation based on the supply-demand game depends on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 20th, the domestic TDI market was running weakly, with domestic TDI products priced around 13000-13100 yuan/ton and Shanghai products priced around 13100-13200 yuan/ton. The supplier lacked confidence in raising prices, and downstream purchases were made according to demand. Under the dominance of buying houses, the focus of TDI transactions shifted downwards. At present, there is a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, and in the absence of favorable demand in the short term, it is expected that the TDI market will have a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6666 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.32%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the center of gravity of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to move towards a low level. After the market price in Shandong fell below the 7000 yuan/ton mark, the trading atmosphere in the market remained weak, and the n-butanol market continued to decline. As of September 13th, the n-butanol market in Shandong was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market Situation of n-Butanol

On the supply side: Since September, there have been both resumption of work and temporary parking in the n-butanol plant. The overall supply in the plant is still relatively loose, and the overall support provided by the supply side to the market is limited.

In terms of demand: In early September, the overall performance of the “Golden Nine” effect in the n-butanol market was average. Downstream demand was cautious in stocking up before the holiday, and due to the continuous decline in the market, the overall wait-and-see atmosphere in the market was strong. The conversion of demand was slow, and the overall support for n-butanol was weak.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ September 13th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6600-6700 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7000-7100 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 6900-7000 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is average, and the negotiation atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly weak and stable, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in early September, terminal demand improved and the hydrogen peroxide market rebounded. On September 2nd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 803 yuan/ton, and on September 9th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.73%.

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market rebounds

Since September 2nd, there has been an increase in terminal rigid demand, leading to an increase in manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide. The bullish trend has also increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has seen a rise, with an overall quotation of 800-900 yuan/ton. On September 9th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 750-800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 40 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in mid to late September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will increase, and the future hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market fluctuated and rose in August. On August 1st, the market price of aniline was 9825 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the price was 10125 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.05% during the month and a decrease of 9.34% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In August, the aniline market first rose and then fluctuated and fell back, with gains giving up and an overall upward trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the low price of aniline and the inverted profits of upstream enterprises, mainstream factories began to push up prices, boosting market purchasing power. Aniline prices rose three times in a row, exceeding the 10000 yuan mark. Subsequently, the market entered the stage of digesting the increase, with upstream inventory falling to a low level and downstream demand dominating. Under the premise of reasonable control of inventory and stable supply, aniline prices were flexibly adjusted, resulting in a weak market trend at the end of the month.

Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated and rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the price fell due to the negative macro sentiment. Subsequently, some downstream units restarted, and the demand side was favorable, causing pure benzene prices to fluctuate and rise. On August 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 8438 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 8568 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current purchasing power of the aniline market is weak, downstream profitability is average, and the ability to accept high priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the aniline market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

In August 2024, the downstream demand for adhesive short fibers continued to be weak, with mediocre performance and average on-site sales. The adhesive short fiber market maintained stable operation and prices remained stable. The market for dissolved pulp, the main raw material, is operating steadily, with decent cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories have average purchasing power, mainly consuming raw material inventory. Overall, the on-site sales are stable, and the demand in the end market is still light. The price of viscose staple fiber market is temporarily stable, but the traditional textile boom season is coming soon, and industry players have strong price support emotions. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream yarn factories.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13500 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost, the price of the main raw material dissolution pulp remains relatively high and stable. The price of broad-leaved dissolution pulp for domestic enterprises is referenced at 7700-7800 yuan/ton, while the price of broad-leaved pulp for external markets is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The prices of auxiliary materials in the market have fluctuated, with prices in the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market and sulfuric acid market remaining firm and stable. The liquid alkali market has experienced a narrow decline, while the adhesive short fiber market still has support.

Supply and inventory: The pre maintenance equipment in the adhesive short fiber market has resumed normal operation. In August, most manufacturers’ equipment was operating stably, and the on-site operating rate is at a high level. Currently, the industry’s daily operating rate is around 83.72%. However, with the gradual delivery of previous orders from manufacturers and an increase in on-site supply, the inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have increased compared to July, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The textile terminal market in August is still in a low season of demand, with downstream cotton yarn manufacturers mostly executing early orders and consuming raw material inventory. The overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and there is a small amount of replenishment during low prices, resulting in mediocre performance on the demand side. Price stalemate consolidation.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Downstream cotton yarn is consolidating weakly, with market execution orders being the main focus. Some manufacturers have adjusted prices narrowly, but overall prices remain stable. Overall shipments are average, inventory is basically maintained, and demand performance is weak. As of August 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) is 17375 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast

The raw material side dissolution slurry market remains strong and stable, with continued positive support from the cost side. The market supply has increased, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. With the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in September, downstream demand will improve, but it is difficult to have a significant improvement. Both positive and negative factors coexist in the market. Overall, it is expected that the adhesive short fiber market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term, with limited price fluctuations or the possibility of a slight increase. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

Recently (8.21-8.27), the domestic price of ethyl acetate has risen first and then fallen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 27th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the price of 6066.67 yuan/ton on August 21st. The main reason for the weak operation of ethyl acetate prices is due to the decline in costs, limited support from the demand side, and bearish supply side markets.

Market analysis: Recently, the ethyl acetate market has been mainly running weakly. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, which has had a negative impact on the cost side; On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong have a bearish attitude and their bidding prices continue to decline; The downstream side consumes inventory slowly, with low purchasing enthusiasm, and the impact of cost reduction on downstream market entry mentality, resulting in a poor market transaction atmosphere; There is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and the price of ethyl acetate is weakly declining.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with weak cost support and insufficient upward momentum for ethyl acetate; On the supply side, the prices of major factories are declining, and the mentality of industry players is bearish; The downstream side does not have a buying and selling mentality, and the enterprise consumes more inventory, resulting in weak demand performance. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will consolidate weakly in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2101 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% during the week.

This week, the domestic market price range for industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is 1850-2000 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 1900 yuan/ton. The upstream soda ash price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable this week, and the market for sodium metabisulfite was sluggish, with inquiries dominating the market. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

At present, the sodium metabisulfite market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the domestic market price will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid has remained stable this week. As of August 11th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3375 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the week price of 3375 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 7.14%.

This week, the acetic acid market remained stable, with firm enterprise quotations being the main factor. During the week, manufacturers actively shipped goods with a slight decrease in inventory. Downstream market entry followed up as needed, and the sales pressure on enterprises was not high. Business operators had a wait-and-see attitude, and on-site transactions were still acceptable. Acetic acid prices remained stable.

As of August 11th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On August 5th/ August 11th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 0

Shandong region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream raw material methanol market is weak and declining. As of August 11th, the average price in the domestic market was 2460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to the price of 2490 yuan/ton on August 5th. The downstream demand for methanol continues to be weak, with more supply side recovery than loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization and a bearish impact on the market, leading to a narrow decline in methanol spot prices.

Downstream acetic anhydride prices remained stable, with an average ex factory price of 5652.50 yuan/ton on August 11th, unchanged from the price of 5652.50 yuan/ton on August 5th. The upstream acetic acid market is stable, but the cost benefits for acetic anhydride are limited. Downstream acetic anhydride is following up as needed, and on-site trading is still acceptable. Market news is quiet, and the acetic anhydride market is operating steadily and observing.

Market forecast: The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current market news is quiet, and domestic acetic acid plants maintain their previous load. There is no pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and the mentality of industry players is mainly wait-and-see. Downstream market entry is mostly followed up according to demand. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate in the short term, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.