Product name: Calcium carbide

Latest price (June 5th): 3000.00 yuan/ton

On June 5th, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to June 2nd, a decrease of 4.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 31.30%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1200 yuan/ton, and the price has decreased by about 100 yuan/ton, resulting in insufficient cost support for calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has recently stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and decrease, with the main focus being on consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 2900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market continues to decline. From May 29th to June 2nd, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11771 yuan/ton to 11078 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 5.89%, a month on month decrease of 5.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.63%.

The maintenance devices in the domestic BDO market have gradually restarted, and supply side support has weakened. The follow-up of terminal demand is average, and the mentality of the holding manufacturer is mainly to sell at a profit, with the market focus continuing to decline.

On the supply side, the short-term BDO supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The cost side support has weakened, and against the backdrop of insufficient demand, there is a strong pessimistic sentiment about the downward adjustment of calcium carbide. On June 2, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in the business community was 3150.00 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is weak, and on June 2nd, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2161.67 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the market in the spandex industry is weak. The Cathay Pacific Xinhua PTMEG device was shut down for maintenance on June 5th, which may reduce the digestion of raw materials. The PBT industry has a load of nearly 60%, increasing the digestion of raw materials and following up on orders in demand; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 40-50%. The PBAT industry’s load has dropped to around 10%. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will soon restart, leading to an increase in supply and a weakening of supply side support. At the same time, there is no expectation of improvement in downstream demand at the end, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of pure benzene has been in a downward trend this month, and the price fluctuation is not significant. On May 1st, the price was 7433 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 6573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.57% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 28.22% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

1. Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and market interest in purchasing pure benzene is average, dragging down pure benzene on the demand side.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market’s concern about the feasibility of the US cap agreement reappeared. At the same time, market sentiment was cautious before the OPEC+meeting, and international oil prices fell. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 fell by $3.21 per barrel, or 4.42%, at $69.46 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 07 fell by $73.54 per barrel, or 4.58%, by $3.53 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2307, fell 0.8 yuan to 528.1 yuan/barrel, while it fell 22.8 yuan to 505.3 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

On May 30th, pure benzene was traded outside: FOB South Korea rose or fell by $11 to $847 per ton, CFR China fell by $6 to $844 per ton, FOB Southeast Asia fell by $10.5 to $805 per ton, Europe closed at $951 per ton, and the United States closed at 354 cents per gallon.

The short-term weakness of fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient supply on the market. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in May. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3150.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.59%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 28.86% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region increased slightly in May. Overall, the price of calcium carbide slightly increased in May. Some calcium carbide manufacturers are parking for maintenance, and the market supply and circulation of goods are relatively tight.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In May, the upstream price of calcium carbide remained stable, and there are still expectations of a downward trend in the short term. The cost support for calcium carbide is average.

Demand side: PVC market price continues to decline

In May, the PVC market price at the downstream of calcium carbide continued to fall in shock. The PVC market price fell from 5925.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5544.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 34.51% year-on-year. The PVC spot market continued to be weak, and the futures market performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market. But there is an upward trend at the end of the month.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early June, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. Some calcium carbide enterprises are in a tight supply of goods due to parking and maintenance. The downstream PVC market has an upward trend at the end of the month, and downstream demand has increased. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early June, with consolidation being the main focus.

This week (5.22-5.29), the market for butadiene rubber continued to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 10450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% from last Monday’s 10700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has significantly decreased; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber was reduced by 300 yuan/ton, resulting in a decrease in merchant offers. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of May 29th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 10200 yuan/ton. As of May 29th, the mainstream prices of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the East China market of Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan, Qixiang, Zhenhua, etc. were between 10100 and 10600 yuan/ton.

The early shutdown device was restarted, and the pressure on the butadiene rubber supply surface continued to increase this week (5.22-5.29).

This week (5.22-5.29), the price of raw material butadiene continued to decline significantly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of butadiene was 7140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12% from last Monday’s 7605 yuan/ton.

Weak demand This week (5.22-5.29), the natural rubber market is operating weakly, providing slight support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of natural rubber was 11640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19% from last Monday’s 11780 yuan/ton.

This week (5.22-5.29), the tire operating rate fluctuated slightly, which has a strong demand for rubber support but limited new space. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.1%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, some butadiene rubber plants will restart, increasing pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; Downstream construction fluctuates slightly, with limited support for butadiene rubber. Although natural rubber prices are slightly supported, natural rubber inventory is still accumulating, and short-term support for butadiene rubber is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak consolidation in the short term.

Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and rose in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.92% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on May 1st, which was 9525 yuan/ton. The industrial chain market has risen, and aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level. The supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and increased in May.

Raw material fluorite prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since mid March, the price of raw material fluorite has fluctuated and increased. As of May 26th, the price of fluorite was 3143.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared to May 1st at 3075 yuan/ton, and a continuous increase of 6.57% compared to March 10th at 2950 yuan/ton. The price of raw material fluorite continues to rise, while the cost of aluminum fluoride has increased. In May, the price increase of fluorite slowed down, and there is still support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose first and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, since mid March, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has increased first and then decreased. As of May 26th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10014.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50% compared to the price of 10271.43 yuan/ton on May 1st. Compared to the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 10th, the price increased first and then decreased, with an increase of 3.09%. Compared to the price of 10357.14 yuan/ton on April 20th, the price decreased by 3.31%. Since mid March, the price of hydrofluoric acid has increased first and then decreased. In May, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, weakening the cost support for aluminum fluoride, and weakening the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

Downstream cryolite prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the price of cryolite was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the price of cryolite on May 1st, which was 7825 yuan/ton. The price of cryolite has slightly increased, and the recovery of downstream demand is limited. The demand for aluminum fluoride is stable, but there is insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride in the future.

Electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18120 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 2.00% compared to the price of 18490 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated and fallen, and Yunnan’s power restrictions have basically ended. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises have started operations steadily, downstream demand is stable, and demand for aluminum fluoride is stable. The support for the rise of aluminum fluoride still exists.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that in May, the price of raw material fluorite fluctuated and rose, while the price of hydrofluoric acid first rose and then fell. The support for the rising cost of fluoride aluminum raw materials still exists; Downstream cryolite prices fluctuate and rise, electrolytic aluminum enterprises are stabilizing their operations, electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuate and fall, and demand for fluoride aluminum is stable. Aluminum fluoride enterprises are operating at a low level, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient. The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and increased in May. In the future, the support for rising costs is weakened, the support for rising demand is insufficient, and the supply of aluminum fluoride is insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

This week (5.12-5.19), the market for butadiene rubber saw a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 10720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20% from last Monday’s 11190 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has significantly decreased; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber was reduced by a total of 500 yuan/ton twice, resulting in a decrease in merchant offers.

This week (5.12-5.19), the supply of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, but there are plans to restart devices in the later stage, and the pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to be difficult to reduce.

This week (5.12-5.19), the price of raw material butadiene fell weakly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the price of butadiene was 7838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34% from last Monday’s 8281 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market continued to rise slightly this week (5.12-5.19) due to storage rumors, but it is still at a stage low, with little support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the price of natural rubber was 11820 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from last Monday’s 11656 yuan/ton.

This week (5.12-5.19), the tire production rate is temporarily stable, and there is a strong need for support for rubber, but it is weaker than in April. It is understood that as of mid May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.3%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.00%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that some butadiene rubber plants will restart in the near future and there are also expectations of restarting some plants in the future, resulting in a pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak, with a significant decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.73% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued, with enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the overall load has fluctuated at a high level. The operating rate of domestic ABS is close to 90%, and the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88% recently. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. Domestic enterprise inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on manufacturers and merchants, and both prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been negative recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has turned downward. At present, the price of acrylonitrile raw materials has slightly increased but is still at a low level, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side has slightly improved, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market price continues to fall. The external market has a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price is constantly decreasing, which has a significant drag on the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation within the week, and some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China have resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline.

It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market has continued to decline recently. The international crude oil price has dragged down the weakness of the pure benzene market, resulting in poor cost support. Downstream markets are mostly in the off-season, mainly in demand. Domestic styrene supply is relatively abundant, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has fluctuated and declined.

In terms of demand: Last week, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, showed average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have all declined, which has not provided sufficient support for the cost side of ABS. Nearly 90% of petrochemical plants have started construction, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position continues to rise, and the mentality of merchants has softened, with operations leaning towards giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is organized and operated. From May 15 to 19, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15160 yuan/ton to 15060 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 0.66%, 1.44% month on month and 15.68% year-on-year. The overall atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively bearish, with little fluctuation in traders’ quotations and an increase in market supply. At the same time, the bearish factors on the cost side have intensified, resulting in a weak and volatile aggregated MDI market.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the device are not significant. The Shanghai Lianheng 590000 ton/year MDI mother liquor device is expected to start shutdown and maintenance around June, lasting for about a month. In addition, the initial maintenance plan for the 130000+70000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao, Japan, is expected to be around January, which will affect the 80000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao Ruian, China. It is expected that the supply and inventory of goods will decrease slightly.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. Downstream consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. On May 19th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6843.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7433.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline is in weak operation. On May 19th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -13.38% compared to the beginning of this month (11775.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively weak.

On the demand side, the overall downstream follow-up is relatively slow, and the transaction atmosphere has significantly weakened compared to the previous period. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, both cost and demand are bearish, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is operating in a weak trend.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 64638.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% from the 67220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 7% and increased by 5%. Recently, copper prices have fallen weakly.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The recent release of China’s economic data is generally poor. Yesterday’s inflation and social finance data fell short of market expectations, sparking concerns about domestic demand in the market.

On the supply side: The production and port transportation issues of overseas mines have been gradually resolved, and processing costs have stabilized without changing the loose situation. With the arrival of the intensive maintenance period for smelting enterprises, the supply of crude copper may be tightened again, and the production of electrolytic copper will be suppressed, and the import volume of electrolytic copper is also limited.

On the demand side: The demand for terminal copper has not increased during the peak season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Overseas inventory continues to rise.

In summary, with the end of the traditional consumption peak season of “Gold, Silver, and Four”, there are obvious signs of weakness in the consumer end. And under the influence of continuous interest rate hikes overseas, hidden inventory has become increasingly apparent, making copper fundamentals even more vulnerable. The maintenance of smelting enterprises may have some support. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term.