1、 Price trend

Business Society: The domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in June

According to data from Business News Agency, as of June 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 6200.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 10.40% from 6920.00 yuan/ton on June 1st.

On June 29th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 58.22, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 13.76% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the downstream resin market was weak, with resin manufacturers experiencing poor shipments, sufficient market supply, high inventory levels, and limited replenishment capacity for maleic anhydride. In addition, the price of raw material n-butane fluctuated and declined, with no significant improvement in supply and demand, and the market for maleic anhydride continued to decline. By the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 5700 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu was about 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 6200 yuan/ton.

In June, the international crude oil market was volatile. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene continued to decline in June, with an average price of 6530.50 yuan/ton on June 1st and 6183.83 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 5.31%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China declined significantly, with an average price of 6600.00 yuan/ton on June 1 and 6100.00 yuan/ton on June 30, down 7.58%. The market for n-butane fluctuated and declined in June, with prices in Shandong reaching around 4200 yuan/ton as of June 30th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current market for n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride is low, while the downstream resin market is weak. There is still a downward trend in resin, and resin replenishment is cautious, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. There is no significant positive impact on the industrial chain. Maleic anhydride manufacturers mainly execute preliminary orders, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by low level consolidation in the near future.

In June, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued to experience a cliff like decline, with the decline worsening compared to May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, polycrystalline silicon fell by over 40%. The domestic supply of goods has experienced a significant decline, with an overall magnitude exceeding 30000 to 40000 yuan. At the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal density with a model of first class solar energy reached 6500-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, there is a significant oversupply of silicon materials in the market, and the operating rate of enterprises remains at a medium to high level, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity. Large factories are still in the mode of selling goods to occupy the market, and there is great pressure for enterprises to destock, making it inevitable to reduce prices for shipments. The number of orders signed by large factories this month is basically the same as last month. At the end of the month, orders from large factories were signed one after another in July. Due to the decline in silicon materials, the negotiation cycle has been shortened, and currently, negotiations are mostly held every week, especially for small manufacturers who are facing difficulties in shipping. The price difference between low-quality silicon materials and high-quality silicon materials is gradually widening.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the decline in silicon wafer prices this month is significant, basically unchanged from the decline in silicon materials. Previously, imported quartz sand remained high and with sufficient raw materials, silicon wafer manufacturers continued to operate at high operating rates. This month, the shipment volume of silicon wafers significantly decreased, and inventory pressure led to a decrease in silicon wafer operating rates. The market is in the process of destocking, and there is significant action under prices. As of the end of the month, the prices of some mainstream models of silicon wafers have been reduced by over 2 yuan. The mainstream model single crystal M10 has lowered its price by 1.35 yuan to 2.8 yuan per piece, a drop of over 32%. The mainstream price of G12 has been lowered by 1.8 yuan to 6.0 yuan per tablet, a decrease of 30%.

Terminal demand: From the perspective of battery cells and components, the price of battery cells has decreased this month, and the market is mainly in stable demand. With the lower quotation of upstream silicon wafers, the profits of battery cell manufacturers have increased. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 battery cells decreased by 0.21 yuan to around 0.71 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of G12 battery cells decreased by 0.24 yuan to around 0.74 yuan/W, with an overall decline in the 20% range. Downstream component prices have also declined. The demand for terminal installation is average, and downstream prices are significantly depressed. Currently, the market is still in a game between upstream and downstream.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that there is a significant expansion of production capacity in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially in the case of oversupply of silicon materials and silicon wafers. However, due to relatively stable downstream demand and limited demand growth, silicon material prices may continue to be under pressure. With the significant decline in silicon prices, the decline at the end of the month is gradually slowing down. It is expected that silicon may stop falling next month. However, considering the weak supply and demand situation, there is still no possibility of a rebound in silicon, and it may turn into volatility in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on June 1st.

In June, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market showed stable performance, with no significant changes in overall trading volume. Holders shipped according to the market, and enterprise quotations were mostly stable. The mainstream price remained around 3900 yuan/ton. From a cost perspective: In June, the price of raw material sulfuric acid stabilized first and then increased, while the price of raw material methanol fluctuated within a narrow range. The cost is still supported by the formic acid market. From the perspective of supply and demand, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mainly in demand for procurement, with orderly market transactions and relatively balanced supply and demand. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Import and export: According to customs statistics, the monthly import volume of formic acid in China was 1818 kilograms in May 2023, and the monthly export volume of formic acid in China was 19787080 kilograms in May 2023.

In terms of cost: Upstream sulfuric acid, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price increased significantly in June. The market price of sulfuric acid increased by 7.69% from 182.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 196.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month; Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on June 27th was 2114.17, a decrease of 2.2% compared to June 1st (2161.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that there is currently some support on the cost side, with downstream restocking being the main focus. The market trend is stable, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly declined, while the domestic light rare earth market has declined. On June 26, the rare earth index was 473 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 53.03% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 74.54% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have slightly declined. As of the 27th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 592500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.07% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.03%; The price of neodymium oxide is 500000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 0.99%; The price of neodymium metal was 620000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.12%; The price of metal praseodymium is 645000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.53%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 497500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 3.40%.

Recently, the domestic light rare earth market has slightly declined, and inquiries for praseodymium neodymium products in the market have been relatively quiet. Transactions are mainly in demand, with some enterprises experiencing a decline in price support. In addition, the lack of demand support after June has caused the light rare earth market to fluctuate and decline. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased. The supply of raw materials is tight, and there are few spot goods in the market. Sellers’ quotations are cautious, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall price trend of rare earth products has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, but some enterprises are eager to ship, and the actual transaction prices have decreased. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline slightly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week (from June 16 to June 25). The price of Spot market in East China was 16150 yuan/ton on June 25, down 0.62%.

In terms of manganese ore, the price of manganese ore is relatively weak, with a stalemate in the supply and demand game. The market mentality is inconsistent, with some miners experiencing losses and firm quotations. Another part is affected by the pressure of silicon and manganese manufacturers and the reduction of external quotations, resulting in a slight loosening of transaction prices. Jupiter announced the shipment price of Mn36.5% South African semi carbonated blocks at $3.75 per ton for manganese ore to China in July 2023. NMT announced that the shipping price of Mn36.5% South African semi carbonated blocks to China manganese mine in July 2023 was 3.75 US dollars per ton, with a decrease of 0.1 US dollars per ton. Port of Tianjin’s semi carbonate is 31-31.5/ton, Australia’s semi carbonate is about 39.8 yuan/ton, plus 38-38.5 yuan/ton, Qinzhou Port Australia’s semi carbonate is 39 yuan/ton, Gabon’s semi carbonate is 37.8 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonate is 30.2 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices continued to decline in June.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to maintain a weak trend, with mainstream market prices ranging from 14500 to 14600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. The market continued its trend over the weekend and remained weak, with low market sentiment. In terms of supply, most domestic manufacturers ceased production after June, but the overall inventory is still high, so the supply side benefits have not shown. There has been no significant improvement in demand, and overall demand is weak. Downstream procurement intentions are still low, overall inventory is running at a high level, and the game mentality between supply and demand is strong, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The FOB price is between $2000 and $2050 per ton, a decrease of $50 per ton compared to last week. Overall, the business community expects that downstream demand will remain weak overall, and there will be little improvement in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak, while waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the silicon manganese market continued to consolidate and operate, with a slight decrease in low-priced resources and fair market trading. Retail transactions were relatively light, and high prices were difficult to close. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6450-6650 yuan/ton on June 25th, with an average market price of 6576 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%.

Related data:

On June 24th, the base metal index stood at 1206 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Overview of the price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 21st, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 20766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% on a weekly basis. The market price of magnesium ingots continued to fall this week, but the decline began to slow down gradually. After falling to the 20000 yuan threshold, the price began to rise steadily. The price of magnesium in the main production areas rebounded 500 yuan/ton after the Dragon Boat Festival.

In terms of supply and demand

On the factory side, magnesium prices have fallen to the factory cost line, and there is limited room for retreat. Coupled with the difficult operation of the factory under the high temperature and scorching heat, magnesium factories have a strong willingness to increase prices. In terms of demand, the recent trading volume of some magnesium factories in the main production areas has improved compared to before, but with the approaching holiday, procurement has slowed down.

In terms of raw materials

Recently, coal prices have shown a slight rebound trend after stabilizing, with ferrosilicon futures fluctuating and rebounding before the holiday. After the holiday, the ferrosilicon market is operating in a weak consolidation mode, and magnesium prices are expected to stabilize at the bottom under cost support.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current magnesium price has dropped to near the factory cost line, and the factory is not willing to continue selling at a lower price. Moreover, coal prices have rebounded slightly today, and magnesium prices are expected to rebound at the bottom. However, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand recovery, and it is difficult for magnesium prices to continue to rebound. It is expected that magnesium ingot prices will remain stable in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19, the price of DOTP was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.25% compared to the price of 9290 yuan/ton on June 9. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and PTA have increased, resulting in rising costs. This week, the price of plasticizer DOTP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9040 yuan/ton on June 19, an increase of 3.67% compared to 8720 yuan/ton on June 9. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer products increased, and the price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased.

PTA prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PTA price on June 19th was 5737.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% compared to the PTA price of 5661.82 yuan/ton on June 9th. PTA prices have fluctuated and risen this week, with plasticizer product costs rising and plasticizer DOTP prices fluctuating and rising.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, PTA prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP increased. Overall, the supply of isooctanol and PTA is sufficient, the raw material cost of plasticizer DOTP has increased, and the demand for plasticizers is weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8028 yuan/ton on June 12, and the average price on June 16 was 8028 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained unchanged.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8470 yuan/ton on June 12 and 8500 yuan/ton on June 16, with a rise of 0.35% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9037 yuan/ton on June 12, and the average price on June 16 was 9037 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained unchanged.

Polyethylene prices have slightly increased this week. LDPE prices have slightly increased. The prices of other brands remain stable. The fluctuations in international crude oil prices have a certain supportive effect on polyethylene prices. LDPE devices have maintenance plans, petrochemical companies have raised their prices, and traders are highly motivated to follow suit. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and order follow-up is limited. There are many shutdown and maintenance devices, and the demand side performance is not good.

Polyethylene production enterprises have a lot of maintenance and planned parking maintenance, and the market supply pressure is not high. However, the demand for polyethylene in the market is weak, and it is expected that polyethylene may be mainly subject to fluctuations and adjustments.

The dichloromethane market rose slightly this week (6.5-6.12). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 12, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2545 yuan/ton, up 3.67% from 2455 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw methanol was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support of dichloromethane was weak; The supply of methane chloride slightly declined, and the supply of goods in the region was tight, slightly supporting dichloromethane. The price of dichloromethane rose slightly.

This week (6.5-6.12), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure remains.

This week (6.5-6.12), the price of raw material methanol has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for dichloromethane is still weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the spot price of methanol was 2041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.35% from last Monday’s 2180 yuan/ton.

Downstream refrigerant R 32 market consolidation started at a low level, and the demand for dichloromethane was limited. The pharmaceutical intermediates, diluents and solvents industry started to fluctuate slightly, and just needed support for dichloromethane.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business society believe that the downstream demand for dichloromethane is mainly stable at present. In the short term, the supply side of dichloromethane is slightly lower. The tight supply of goods in the region supports the price of dichloromethane. In the medium and long term, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane continues, and the new points of demand side are not obvious. The future market of dichloromethane will be volatile and consolidated.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from June 2 to June 9, 2023 has slightly decreased, from 5776.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5728.75 yuan/ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 0.82%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on June 8th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.24 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.96 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 or 1.3%.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton on May 26, 2023, and is currently at 6500 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6383 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price fluctuation of pure benzene this week is very small. On June 5th, the price of pure benzene was 6500 yuan/ton, and on June 9th, the price of pure benzene was 6505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared to last week and a decrease of 33.73% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has been declining for seven consecutive weeks, with both positive and negative trends in recent times.

In terms of industrial chain: The rise in crude oil prices over the weekend has driven up market sentiment, and the recovery at the beginning of this week has continued, with a positive market atmosphere at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, crude oil fell 0.6%, while the styrene market weakened, dragging down market sentiment and causing a slight decline in pure benzene prices. As of Thursday and Friday, the crude oil trend rose first and then fell, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. The recent supply of pure benzene is relatively sufficient, and the market outlook is relatively short. The hydrogenation benzene market has basically followed the fluctuations of pure benzene, falling by 50-100 yuan/ton within the week. The factory price in the main production area is around 6500 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week.

From the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China from 2022 to the present, we can see that the operating rate of coking enterprises has been basically maintained at around 75% recently. After 10 consecutive rounds of landing in the coke market, the profits of coking enterprises have shrunk, the mentality of price competition and sales reluctance has increased, and the supply of crude benzene has been tight.

The crude benzene market has slightly decreased this week. The mainstream price in Shandong is 5780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price in Shanxi is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70-100 yuan/ton compared to last week. On the supply side, the supply of crude benzene is still tight this week, and coke companies currently have a strong attitude towards price support. In terms of demand, the hydrogenation benzene market continues to decline, with most companies losing money, and some equipment maintenance operating rates declining. The overall trend of the industrial chain is low, dragging down the mentality of the crude benzene market. Overall, the recent trend of crude oil has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the market, overall weakening of the industrial chain, and tight supply of crude benzene. However, there is a lack of downstream demand support, and there may be some room for decline. In the future, the business agency predicts that the crude benzene market will be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.