According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have been weak this week. As of the 25th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 10133 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the coal tar market continued to be weak this week. As of the 17th, the price of coal tar was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan/ton compared to March 1st. Continuous production restrictions by coke companies have led to six rounds of decline in coke prices, increased losses for coke companies, and low operating loads, resulting in tight supply in the high-temperature coal tar market; However, the downstream coal tar market is weak, and terminal procurement attitudes are negative, forming a strong pressure on coal tar. The overall demand support is insufficient, resulting in a decline in coal tar prices and weakening support for the cost of carbon black.

Construction status: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable construction this week.

In terms of terminals, there are sufficient domestic and foreign sales orders in the tire industry, and the downstream tire industry has a strong atmosphere of speculation, which has played a certain promoting role in sales. However, due to the fact that most merchants have already reserved inventory in advance, the actual transactions in the replacement market are not active, and the procurement of raw material carbon black is limited to rigid demand.

Import and export data from January to February: According to customs data, China imported 26000 tons of carbon black in January 2024, an increase of 38.98% year-on-year and 8.28% month on month. In February 2024, China imported 22400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 10.17% year-on-year and a decrease of 13.84% month on month; From January to February 2024, China imported a total of 48400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 23.97% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 9400 tons.

In January 2024, the top three regions of carbon black import quantity are Russia, South Korea and Taiwan, China; They account for 70.9%, 7.6%, and 4.7% of the total import volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black import quantity in February 2024 are Russia, Belgium, and South Korea; They account for 73.7%, 7.3%, and 5.2% of the total import volume, respectively.

According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in January 2024 were approximately 99400 tons, an increase of 97.35% year-on-year and 31.95% month on month. In February 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 70600 tons, an increase of 47.65% year-on-year and a decrease of 28.96% month on month. From January to February 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 170000 tons, an increase of 73.14% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 71800 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in January 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 35.2%, 20.7%, and 10.9% of the total export volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in February 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 31.9%, 19.3%, and 12.8% of the total export volume, respectively.

Looking ahead to the future, due to the decline in the price of high-temperature coal tar market, the support for the cost of carbon black is gradually weakening; At the same time, downstream tire industry merchants generally have a mentality of buying up rather than falling. Currently, there is a strong resistance to carbon black prices, and inquiries are mainly focused on price pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the carbon black market will generally show a weak operating trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2383.4 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2361.2 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.93% and an increase of 8.56% year-on-year. On March 21, the baking soda commodity index was 156.72, a decrease of 1.38 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 77.55% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is running weakly, with the mainstream market quotation of around 1900-2400 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2040 yuan/ton, while the weekend market price was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94%, a decrease of 28.52% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has temporarily stabilized. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have recently made more purchases according to demand, replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount, without any positive support. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the market for trichloromethane in Shandong Province has initially risen and then stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 18th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2780 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% from 2666 yuan/ton on March 5th. In early March, due to the continuous recovery of downstream production and positive inquiries, the price of trichloromethane significantly increased. Since mid March, on the one hand, downstream stocking has basically come to an end, and terminal procurement performance has been mediocre. On the other hand, raw material prices have remained stable with little movement, and the cost support for trichloromethane has slowed down. The trichloromethane market has remained stable with narrow fluctuations.

This week (3.5-3.18), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable. There is still support for the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2701 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 2691 yuan/ton on March 5th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2750 yuan/ton. As of March 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 300 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the refrigerant market has seen a rapid rebound in shipments after the holiday. The expected production volume of air conditioning enterprises in March is around 20-22 million units. In addition, the increase in export demand orders has provided strong support for the refrigerant market. Refrigerant enterprises have mainly consumed inventory recently, and inquiries for trichloromethane have been flat. Demand has slightly weakened in the face of trichloromethane support.

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that raw material prices have narrow consolidation, and there is still support for the cost of trichloromethane; The downstream refrigerant industry is still in the peak season of production, but in the short term, inventory consumption is the main factor, supporting the demand for trichloromethane slightly weaker than in the early stage. Overall, the high level consolidation of trichloromethane market is the main trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 18, 2024, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is based on 9150 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to March 11.

Last week (3.11-3.15), the epoxy propane market remained stagnant and mainly operated through consolidation. Starting from the weekend, manufacturers raised prices and dealers offered stable prices. On March 18th, the reference factory price for Shandong epoxy propane was around 9000-9050 yuan.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of propylene in Shandong on March 11th was 6992.60 yuan/ton, and on March 15th it was 6948.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% during the cycle. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has been declining, and the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has fluctuated weakly. The cost support in the epoxy propane market is weak.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of last week, inventory on the supply side was at a median level, and downstream purchasing intentions were insufficient, resulting in a weak market stalemate. In the middle of the week, the downstream followed up moderately, and factory shipments were still acceptable. Some inventory pressures were slightly relieved, but the market purchasing mentality was cautious. With price reductions in some regions, market shipments rebounded again, and factories offered high prices over the weekend. On Monday of this week, downstream follow-up was average, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current market for raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine is weak, and short-term cost support may be limited. The demand side mainly follows up on demand, and factory shipments are average. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8207 yuan/ton on March 11, and the average price on March 15 was 8195 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.14% in the quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9237 yuan/ton on March 11th, and the average price on March 15th was 9237 yuan/ton, with prices remaining unchanged during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8475 yuan/ton on March 11th, and the average price on March 15th was 8450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.29% in the quotation during this period.

This week, polyethylene has undergone a narrow adjustment with relatively small fluctuations. The international oil price fluctuates strongly, and the cost side supports the polyethylene market; Domestic polyethylene inventory supply is sufficient, and there is significant pressure on the supply side, causing petrochemical enterprises to face pressure to destock. Downstream factories are gradually increasing their production, but they are mainly focused on rigid demand, with insufficient procurement efforts, limited new orders, and insufficient boost in demand.

On March 15th, the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8172 yuan and closed at 8280 yuan, up 135 yuan, with a maximum of 8290 yuan and a minimum of 8172 yuan, up 1.66%.

Polyethylene supply is loose, and currently there is insufficient support on the demand side. As the peak season for plastic film production approaches, there is a positive expectation on the demand side. In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate and rise narrowly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of calcium chloride remained stable this week. As of March 14th, the market price of 94% anhydrous calcium chloride was at an average market price of 1357 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

The prices in various regions are as follows: the reference price in Shandong is 1250.00 yuan/ton; The reference price for the Northwest market is 1250.00 yuan/ton; The reference price for the central and southern regions is 1750 yuan/ton.

Trend of raw material hydrochloric acid:

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of soda ash is weak. Although there is still a slight increase in the price of raw material hydrochloric acid, the increase is difficult to transmit to the calcium chloride market.

Downstream cement:

In early March, the downstream cement industry of calcium chloride in East China was affected by cloudy and rainy weather, resulting in poor construction of construction sites and mixing plants, slow recovery of market demand, and cold downstream procurement.

Some domestic calcium chloride factories have high inventory, and the industry is operating at a low level. There has been no significant change in the overall supply of calcium chloride in the industry, and there is no supply pressure. The domestic market atmosphere is dull, mostly driven by demand for goods, and various factors lead to price stability.

Overall, the expected changes in supply and demand are not significant. It is expected that the price of calcium chloride will continue to be weak next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic PTMEG price has slightly decreased this week. As of March 12th, the PTMEG price was 20933 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%.

In terms of equipment

At present, the overall operating rate of the domestic industry is stable around 85%.

Upstream aspect

From the upstream raw material market of PTMEG, the market for 1,4-butanediol has remained stable this week, with a price of 9428 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have undergone maintenance and replacement, but due to the accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival, the current supply is still sufficient.

At present, the price of maleic anhydride is 7110 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with limited new orders signed.

In terms of demand

The main downstream spandex price is 31000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year from the beginning of the month. The overall demand in the tourism industry is generally following up, suppressing the trend of raw materials.

Future Market Forecast

Cost support is average, spot trading is light, and the overall market situation is stagnant and consolidating. It is expected that PTMEG prices will continue to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 3383.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend it was 3433.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.48% and a decrease of 5.07% compared to the same period last year. On March 10th, the chlor alkali index was 998 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.10% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 40.17% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week, with an average market price of 781 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a decrease of 10.84% compared to the same period last year. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 730-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 820-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has slightly increased this week, and downstream demand has recovered. However, actual demand is limited. Currently, enterprises are actively shipping, and overall, the price of caustic soda may remain stable in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9966.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%.

Supply side: The domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has been stable this week, and the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plants has been normal. However, downstream demand has not followed up enough, and hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have high inventory. The mainstream negotiated price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions in China is 9800-10200 yuan/ton, and there are still units waiting for market shutdown. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation for manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid is not good. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is over 50%, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Cost side: The domestic price of fluorite remained stable this week, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the weekend, which remained unchanged from the initial price of 3350 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult, In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. With the temperature rising, fluorite manufacturers are gradually resuming work and production. At that time, the supply of fluorite will increase, and the fluorite market trend will remain stable. As a result, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the market will not change much.

This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid in the market has increased. As of the weekend, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 246.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.06% from the beginning of the week price of 223.75 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is on the rise, and the cost price is rising. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid are more enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid is rising. As a result, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market still has support.

On the demand side, the market for downstream refrigerant products has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have raised their factory prices due to quota issues, and distributors have been more active in purchasing. The price trend of R22 has increased, and the mainstream of negotiations is between 25000 and 27000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction volume in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish, and there is no actual improvement in the procurement of hydrofluoric acid. The hydrofluoric acid market is sluggish.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite enterprises are gradually resuming work in the near future, but there is strong bullish sentiment on the market, and sulfuric acid prices are showing an upward trend; In addition, the downstream refrigerant industry gradually entered the peak production season in March, and overall, favorable factors still exist. In the short term, the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable, but there are still opportunities for the price of hydrofluoric acid to rebound in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this month was 3450 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this month was 3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45%.

In February, the domestic potassium sulfate market was weak, with some Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers conducting brief maintenance during the Spring Festival and quickly recovering after the holiday. The overall supply of goods was sufficient, and most factories had a certain amount of pending orders before the new year. After logistics transportation gradually returned to normal, resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers maintained stable production. The 52% potassium powder market in Guotou Luo was mostly between 3500-3600 yuan/ton, and the 50% water salt powder market in Qinghai was mostly between 3200-3250 yuan/ton, The sales prices vary slightly in different regions, and the transaction orders are negotiable.

The supply of potassium fertilizer in the domestic market continues to increase, and there are still some new sources of imported potassium from ports. The speed of port shipments is relatively slow before and after the Spring Festival holiday, and the recovery of logistics transportation is limited. Domestic potassium manufacturers are still maintaining their initial production, with railway transportation being the main source of goods.

Prediction: There has been no significant improvement in the domestic potassium fertilizer market transactions, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.