1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have been fluctuating this week. As of October 13th, the spot nickel quotation was 153750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 19.79%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have decreased by 8% and increased by 3%, with a recent wide fluctuation trend in nickel prices.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the US CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year in September, higher than expected, marking the third consecutive month of rebound; The core CPI dropped from 4.3% last month to 4.1%, the smallest increase in nearly two years, but still above 4%, far above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%. This also highlights the stubbornness of inflation, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, which also brings uncertainty to the final results of interest rate negotiations in November and December; On the domestic side, the issuance of local government refinancing bonds has accelerated, boosting market confidence.

In terms of supply: Indonesia has increased production capacity for intermediate products and nickel plates, and domestic pure nickel supply is sufficient, resulting in a slowdown in market inventory consumption. In September 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 22100 tons, an increase of 1.4% month on month and 43.18% year on year. The increase in production was mainly affected by the continuous increase in newly added electrolytic nickel production and the continuous increase in production of a certain smelter in northwest China. It is expected that the national refined nickel production in October will reach 22800 tons, a month on month increase of 2.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.05%.

In terms of demand: The total social inventory of stainless steel this week was 1.1278 million tons, a decrease of 3.34% compared to the previous week. All departments have varying degrees of digestion. The high inventory of nickel iron in the raw material end combined with a significant increase in imports has led to a slight decrease in prices. Recently, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines has been lowered, and support will be weakened. In terms of new energy vehicles, some battery and material factories still have varying degrees of reduction in production compared to the previous month, suppressing the demand for nickel sulfate.

In summary, the domestic nickel supply is loose, the expected reduction in stainless steel production leads to price increases, LME inventory is depleted, and spot trading has slightly improved. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a broad and volatile trend.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of PET water bottle grade has been declining in a narrow range, with an average price of 7190 yuan/ton. In September, the PET market price fell by 1.51%, with the overall market operating in a weak range. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

In September, domestic PET prices remained stable and slightly weak, with prices at 7300 yuan/ton at the beginning of September and 7190 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 1.51% decrease compared to the same period last month. The overall price in September was weak and downward, with a low focus of negotiations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton, with downstream restocking as needed being the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average and stable operation is the main focus.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 26, the rubber and plastic index was 705 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.49% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 33.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in September. On September 28th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 161000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.33% compared to the average price of 210000 yuan/ton on September 1st. On September 28th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 175000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.88% compared to the average price of 224000 yuan/ton on September 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline in September. In terms of supply, the production output of lithium salt factories did not fluctuate significantly in early September, and there was sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. Subsequently, there was news that a major factory in Qinghai Salt Lake was about to release goods, resulting in an increase in market supply, which put some pressure on the current spot market with sufficient goods.

In late September, due to environmental inspections, mica mining was restricted in the Jiangxi region, resulting in a narrowing of profit margins for some Jiangxi lithium salt factories and a phenomenon of production stoppage and reduction. However, some large lithium salt manufacturers have also released products at low prices, resulting in an increase in the circulation of lithium carbonate in the market. As the price of lithium salts continues to decline towards the end of the month, some manufacturers’ prices and costs have been reversed, and some companies have become increasingly pro priced.

In terms of demand, in early September, the upstream and downstream industries in the lithium carbonate market held a wait-and-see attitude towards lithium salt prices. The recovery of downstream demand was poor, and although there were frequent inquiries, both procurement and actual transactions were relatively light. Delayed delivery and negotiation of orders often occurred. In addition, in the context of low downstream purchasing willingness, there is an expectation of incremental lithium carbonate, which has led to a retreat in the procurement demand of some downstream enterprises. In an atmosphere of buying up rather than falling, more purchases are made on demand.

In late September, both supply and demand in the spot market were weak, and downstream demand expectations were relatively pessimistic, with no obvious signs of improvement in the short term. Buying demand was weak, and transactions were light. With the state of downstream bargain hunting, the focus of market transactions shifted downward. The end of the month is approaching the National Day Mid Autumn Golden Week, but based on the current downstream pre holiday stocking situation, there are many market inquiries and price pressures, and purchasing intentions are weak. There are few large-scale transactions. As some lithium salt factories and downstream negotiations fall into a stalemate, the market price decline has narrowed.

The market price of lithium hydroxide has decreased. In the first half of September, the upstream spodumene concentrate price fell, and the lithium carbonate market operated weakly, with weakened cost support. Production enterprises mainly focused on long-term orders, while downstream demand was light. Inquiries and purchases needed to be cautious, and individual transactions were limited. Under the dual drag of cost and demand, the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has declined. In the second half of the month, cost support remains weak, downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, market trading atmosphere is light, and the lithium hydroxide market continues to operate weakly.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and declining. In September, the demand for lithium iron phosphate was lower than expected, and the entire industry chain has high inventory, causing prices to continue to decline. The number of enterprise orders has decreased, and the overall industry growth rate has slowed down. From the long-term trend of the demand side, the market’s demand for positive electrode materials has improved, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate will gradually recover.

In terms of futures, on September 28th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 150000 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 152500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.11%, with 197300 transactions and 60869 positions.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the upcoming Mid Autumn and National Day holidays have resulted in weaker purchasing willingness in downstream markets, with the market mainly relying on wait-and-see behavior. With the continuous bottoming out of lithium carbonate prices, many lithium salt factories have started to reduce and stop production, which will alleviate the supply of lithium carbonate in the future. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain weak and volatile in the short term.

Recently (9.15-9.22), the spot market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined from its high point. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from last Friday’s 13820 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene is running at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong. In addition, the overall inventory pressure of butadiene rubber is not high, and coupled with stable downstream construction and high demand support, the supply price of butadiene rubber is strong. However, on the one hand, the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and the market atmosphere is gradually wait-and-see. On the other hand, downstream resistance towards high priced sources has increased. Later this week, the market quotation for butadiene rubber has adjusted downwards. As of September 22, the mainstream price for domestic butadiene rubber market is 13400-13900 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for private butadiene rubber in East China is 12600-13000 yuan/ton.

The industry’s construction is temporarily stable, and the Shunding unit of Jinzhou Petrochemical is scheduled to restart this weekend.

Recently (9.15-9.22), the butadiene market has been operating at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the price of butadiene was 8747 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from last Friday’s 8660 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The operating rate of tires is basically stable, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of mid September 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%, which forms a certain support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the high price of butadiene rubber raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Although downstream companies just need support, they have a resistance attitude towards high priced butadiene rubber. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will maintain a high level of consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9133.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.48%. Weekend prices increased by 22.32% year-on-year. On September 18th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.52, a decrease of 0.84 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and a 51.13% increase from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 07, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 7175.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7338.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.26%. The weekend prices fell by 1.30% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, rising from 10133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.88%. The weekend price has increased by 1.21% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late September, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market continues to rise, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9158.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9716.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.10%. The price has increased by 0.17% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past two months, and the market has continued to rise this week. The international oil price has risen, the pure benzene market has followed suit, and cost support is good. The inventory of styrene ports in East China continues to be low. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are actively stocking up, market transactions are positive, and the styrene market is rising.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has increased this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 8800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also increased by 950 yuan/ton). The East China market continues to rise, with sporadic spot transactions on the exchange, mainly through monthly transactions. Downstream customers are cautious in pursuing high priced raw materials, resulting in insufficient transactions. An unplanned shutdown of a polymerization factory in Shandong led to bearish market buying, coupled with a slight decline in high-end pure benzene production in East China within the day, resulting in insufficient market follow-up momentum and weaker transaction volume.

Downstream, the three major downstream markets for styrene have risen. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price of PS was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% and a decrease of 7.32% compared to the same period last year. The cost of PS is supported, and transactions are improving. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong.

This week’s EPS market has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10059.00 yuan/ton, and the average price of ordinary materials this week was 10250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95%. The terminal profit is good, and the market transactions are positive. It is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly show a strong trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen, and the upstream three materials of ABS have strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. Petrochemical plants have started construction at a high level, with smooth shipments and significant market inventory digestion. The demand side support has strengthened, and the trading volume has fully entered the traditional peak season level of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”. However, the increase in spot prices may affect the willingness of terminals to receive goods, and it is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

At present, the news shows that the crude oil market has softened from a high level, and the cost side is still acceptable. Baofeng and Zhejiang Petrochemical have new production capacity of 800000 tons of styrene units, and there is an expectation of an increase in styrene inventory. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will be mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% compared to the initial price of 8675 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 15th, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% compared to the beginning of the week’s price of 8800 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the price trend of ortho benzene in China. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has increased.

On the demand side: The DOP market has seen a significant increase

The price trend in the downstream DOP market is mainly declining, with prices as of the weekend at 11566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% compared to the price of 11775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises are maintaining their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are losing profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the supply of plasticizers is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP is between 11500 and 11600 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride.

Looking at the future market, in the short term, the price trend of ortho xylene has increased, while the downstream plasticizer market has declined. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the short-term ortho phthalic anhydride market price will mainly rise due to strong support from raw materials.

Last week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound, continuing its previous upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose 2.45% in the week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy is maintained at 80-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production of silicon material manufacturers has significantly decreased, mainly due to the impact of power restrictions on their devices, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a natural impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The short-term shortage of silicon materials remains relatively tight, which is also the main reason why silicon prices can continue to rise. At present, most silicon material companies have signed long-term orders for next month, and some individual orders continue to rise with tight market supply; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials.

On the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer production rate remains high, and the demand for silicon materials only increases without decreasing. The quotation for silicon wafers is soaring. However, downstream resistance towards high prices is gradually emerging, and the inventory of silicon wafers has increased, which may hinder prices in the later stage; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; And the export sector still faces uncertain prospects. This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: In the near future, the silicon material market may still remain relatively rigid and strong, and the demand side will not change too much. In the immediate future, it is necessary to continue to follow up, and the increment may gradually decrease. Therefore, the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future, with a slight increase as the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly increased. As of the 11th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% compared to the 4th price of 8587.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.22%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 11th, the price of ortho benzene was 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20% compared to the 4th price of 9100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the domestic price trend of ortho benzene. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has increased.

On the demand side: The DOP market has seen a significant increase

The price trend in the downstream DOP market is mainly declining, with prices as of the 11th at 11641.67 yuan/ton, a 3.06% decrease compared to the 4th at 12009.17 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are experiencing profit losses, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, with mainstream DOP prices ranging from 11600 to 11700 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride.

In the future, the price of ortho xylene remains high in the short term, while the trend of downstream plasticizers is declining. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the short term.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly increased. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3193.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the 4th price of 3187.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 15.35%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot supply of fluorite is tight. As a result, the market price of fluorite continues to rise.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been negotiated to increase to 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Some devices are still in shutdown recently, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal. In the early stage, the sulfuric acid market price has risen significantly, which has affected the rise of the hydrofluoric acid market. The rise in hydrofluoric acid price to some extent supports the rise of the fluorite market, The fluorite market has slightly increased.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future forecast: Although Mongolia’s imported fluorite mines have increased, the domestic supply of fluorite mines is difficult to improve. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the future. The refrigerant quota plan has recently stimulated the market, and the refrigerant market trend is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price of fluorite is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the future.