The domestic phenol market fluctuated in November. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market was quoted at 8150 yuan/ton on November 1st, and on November 30th, the market was quoted at 8157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09%.

The quotations for phenol in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region/ Price on November 1st/ Price on November 30th/ Rise and fall range

East China region/ 7900./7950./50

Shandong region/ 8200./8100./-100

The surrounding areas of Yanshan/ 8200./8100./-100

South China region/ 8250./8250./0

At the beginning of the month, the phenol market was significantly affected by the drop in raw material pure benzene prices, and the focus of negotiations fell below 8000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, domestic trade sources arrived in Hong Kong to supplement, and the market continued to be sluggish in the first half of the month under supply pressure.

In the middle of the month, port inventories have declined and imported goods have not been replenished. Traders have a positive attitude towards pushing up prices. As the market continues to rise, mainstream factories across the country have raised their listing prices, and the market has been significantly boosted by downstream large players bidding. As market prices rise, downstream demand has followed suit, and phenolic ketone enterprises have continuously reported parking plans. The tight situation of goods has become prominent, and the market’s focus has remained strong at a high level.

Fundamentals: In November, there was intensive equipment maintenance, involving a total of 10 units with a production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year. The production has significantly declined.

In terms of downstream demand, rigid demand is the main focus. The tightening of supply and fluctuations in cost are the main reasons affecting this wave of phenol market. The downstream bisphenol A market has slightly increased, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China ranging from 10050 to 10100 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of Business Society, multiple sets of phenolic ketone units were still under maintenance in December, with little supply pressure, which was beneficial to the market. However, the terminal faced cost pressure or small orders, and downstream enterprises suffered losses in profits. It is expected to remain strong and stable in December, but there are also downward risks, with a focus on the production of new devices.

This week (11.20-11.29), the market for dichloromethane fluctuated and rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of November 29th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2527 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.48% from 2442 yuan/ton on the 20th. The low point during the cycle was 2410 yuan/ton, and the high point was 2550 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost center of dichloromethane has shifted downwards; Downstream and terminal customers should be cautious when purchasing goods. Enterprises in Shandong region generally have low inventory pressure when shipping, while enterprises in East China and other regions have low inventory pressure when shipping dichloromethane. Some domestic enterprises have lowered the factory price of dichloromethane, and as of November 21, the mainstream bulk water factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2350-2500 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.29), the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose.

This week (11.20-11.29), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine slightly decreased, and the cost center of dichloromethane decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% from 2450 yuan/ton on the 20th. As of November 29th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 400 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous period.

The overall supply of methane chloride in China is loose, and after a significant reduction in the factory price of dichloromethane, terminal inquiries in Shandong region have increased. However, currently, the shipping speed of enterprises has significantly weakened, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market has once again weakened. Some enterprises have lowered their factory prices.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the overall demand for dichloromethane is weak, and the supply side is relatively loose, which has a bearish impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices still provide cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

This week (11.20-11.27), the market for butadiene rubber was weak and fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 27th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from last Monday’s 12370 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of butadiene rubber. Downstream tire factories have slightly increased their production compared to mid November, and demand has improved in the face of support for butadiene rubber. On the 27th, some merchants reported a slight increase in prices, but the supply of butadiene rubber is relatively loose, and the overall market for butadiene rubber is still weak. As of November 27th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised its price by 12000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Shunding rubber market in eastern China, such as Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Yanshan, and Qilu, are reported at 11900-12500 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11600-11800 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.27), the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating with narrow fluctuations, and the Qixiang Tengda butadiene plant operated with reduced load; The Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in December.

This week (11.20-11.27), the price of butadiene stabilized at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 27th, the price of butadiene was at 9538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% from last Monday’s 9541 yuan/ton, and the lowest point in the cycle was 9493 yuan/ton.

This week (11.20-11.27), the natural rubber market slightly declined and the price difference of butadiene rubber slightly narrowed, but the impact on butadiene rubber is still more significant. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the price was 12940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from last Monday’s 13150 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Starting from November 20th to November 27th this week, all steel tires slightly increased, providing some support for rubber production. But currently, the demand for tires is gradually entering the off-season at the end of the year, and tire companies are gradually accumulating inventory. The expectation of tire production in the later stage will decrease, and the impact on rubber is biased. It is understood that as of late November 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 640%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.8%.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow fluctuations in raw material prices will continue to support the cost side of butadiene rubber, and the demand side is expected to weaken in the off-season. However, Maoming Petrochemical has a parking and maintenance plan in the later stage, and the supply side of butadiene rubber is also expected to decline. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

The recent market trend of epoxy propane has been mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 26th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9300.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Monday (November 20th).

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has slightly increased recently (11.20-11.24). The average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7045 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 7074 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43%. Cost support from the epoxy propane market has increased.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of last week, the supply side operated without pressure, with smooth factory shipments and downstream follow-up purchases. The market atmosphere was strong, but factory shipments weakened in the middle of the week, and the market trading atmosphere slowed down. On the 24th, the mainstream quotation for Shandong epoxy propane market was 9150 yuan/ton, with average downstream demand and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that there is currently some support on the cost side, factory shipments are still acceptable, and the demand side is watching and following. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will operate steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. The current price has increased by 0.53% month on month, and has dropped by 18.37% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly risen in the past month, and this week’s market continues to rise slightly. In recent times, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has seen high and strong prices, with good cost support. The supply of goods is mostly in the hands of traders, and the market circulation of goods is limited, with a slight upward trend in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7350-7700 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased: currently, the market price of domestic 60% crystals is mostly between 2820-2850 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and analysts from Shengyishe Potassium Chloride believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

In recent times, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been mainly volatile and consolidating, and new policies from domestic manufacturers are still being discussed. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be wait-and-see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7487.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from the price of 7525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable,  the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, Some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market for phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Lower prices of ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a 2.50% decrease from the beginning of the week’s price of 8000 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, the operation of on-site devices is stable, and the crude oil price trend has significantly decreased this week. The mixed xylene price has correspondingly decreased, and the raw material price has decreased. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has declined, and the low ortho benzene market has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly decreased, with a price of 11259.17 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.87% compared to the beginning of the week price of 11358.33 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have poor profits, plasticizer manufacturers have low operating loads, plasticizer supply is still tight, and downstream demand is weak. The mainstream price of DOP is between 11200 yuan/ton and 11300 yuan/ton, and plasticizer manufacturers are not actively purchasing, Affected by this, the market price of phthalic anhydride slightly declined.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price trend has declined recently, and the price of ortho xylene is weak. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will slightly decrease.

From November 10 to November 17, 2023, the antimony ingot market in the East China region slightly decreased. This weekend, the price was at 81500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market has been relatively stable, with a significant downward trend in prices this week.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony fell, reaching $11150 per ton as of November 17th. The price has been continuously lowered during the cycle, leading to a weak market atmosphere and dragging down the domestic market mentality.

Prior to the supply and demand game, the antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable for 6 consecutive weeks. After a stalemate for a month and a half, the market balance was disrupted, and the antimony ingot market fell by 250 yuan/ton per week, a decrease of 1.21%. Overall, the current changes in supply and demand are limited, and the supply at the mining end is still tight. The overall supply of antimony ingot market is slightly tight, but the factors of tight supply at the mining end have been basically digested by the market, so the current impact on the market is relatively limited. In terms of demand, the downstream market maintains a rigid demand for procurement, while the downstream market maintains a rigid demand support for antimony ingots. The recent poor performance of overseas markets has led to a continuous decline in market prices, which has affected the mentality of the domestic market and caused a slight decline in the domestic market. Overall, the antimony ingot market remains weak in both supply and demand, with a strong supply-demand game mentality. The market has narrowed this week, and it is expected that the antimony ingot market will operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market is following the downward trend of the raw material market. Currently, the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, with average overseas sales performance and overall weak market expectations. Antimony oxide enterprises are maintaining demand procurement for antimony ingots, and are expected to operate weakly in the short term.

On November 19th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1109 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.70% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17) commodity price rise and fall list, with silver (3.97%), copper (1.29%), and lead (1.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium metal (-3.69%), dysprosium iron alloy (-3.14%), and nickel (-3.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.96%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated significantly this week (11.13-11.17). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7203 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend is 7198 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.07% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.45%.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 17th

Shandong region/ 7130-7200 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6800-6850 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, international oil prices rose, and the news was positive, supporting the mentality of the industry. Propylene prices showed a slight increase. Subsequently, the price of propylene rose to a high level, and downstream profit margins decreased, leading to a boycott mentality and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Upstream, in order to stimulate sales, the main focus was to reduce prices and inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that in the short term, there will be limited changes in the supply of propylene in the future, and the demand side will follow slowly due to the impact of rising costs. Especially, the downstream polypropylene market remains weak and the buying intention is not strong. It is expected that the propylene market will narrow down and operate next week.

Price trend

In early November, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and adjusted, with spot prices of various brands adjusting and operating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11175 yuan/ton, a+0.45% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the recent high load in the ABS industry has continued, with an average weekly operating rate of around 72% as of the end of last week. The production of the enterprise is stable, with a slight increase in weekly total production and a significant increase in inventory positions. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure.

In terms of raw materials: In early November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market continuing its previous strong trend. Although the demand level is average, the price of propylene at the raw material end has surged, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has increased; In addition, due to the expansion of domestic production capacity losses in the early stage, there are now delays in resuming work on individual devices, resulting in a decrease in market supply and increased supply side support. Acrylonitrile leads to bullish guidance and price increases.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly flat. Last week, crude oil prices saw a broad decline, which was negative for petrochemical chain products. In addition, the high price of butadiene has compressed downstream profits, resulting in a decrease in the smoothness of domestic shipments. However, the supplier’s operation tends to operate at a relatively high price, so the butadiene market has been able to maintain significant stability and minor fluctuations.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fell in early November. The main reason for the decline is also the decline in international crude oil prices and the weak market for pure benzene. At the same time as cost support weakens, downstream demand is also weak, resulting in poor transactions. Fortunately, the overall inventory position of styrene is low, and it is expected that the decline in the future may be narrow.

In terms of demand: In the early part of this month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed low stocking enthusiasm, and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, causing a drag on price trends.

Future Market Forecast

In early November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. Demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of the 13th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 21266.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the beginning of the month. In the middle of the week, some downstream enterprises made bargain hunting purchases, and market transactions improved. The price of magnesium ingots increased by about 300-400 yuan/ton. Subsequently, news of the resumption of production by factories in the main production area fermented, and market transactions gradually slowed down. There were signs of another decrease in magnesium prices.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, due to the low prices of magnesium ingots in the early stage, the magnesium factory’s recent quotations have been relatively firm, which makes it difficult to sell at discounted prices. In terms of demand, downstream users’ speculative purchases increased during the week, but the news of resumption of production in the main production area affected the downstream and began to wait and see, resulting in a decrease in overall demand.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the silicon iron market fluctuated upwards, with spot prices increasing by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market quotation in Ningxia is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6875 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The overall stable operation of the national orchid charcoal market in Zhou Dynasty has been observed. At the beginning of the week, a few enterprises had poor coke surface shipments, with prices dropping by 20-40 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as raw material prices rose, some enterprises saw coke surface prices rise by 30 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Due to the expected impact of factory resumption in the early stage, magnesium prices are at a low level, and manufacturers have highlighted their strong prices. With the support of production costs, there is limited room for magnesium price reduction. However, due to the overall weak demand and the lack of upward mobility in magnesium prices, it is expected that the magnesium ingot market may operate weakly and steadily in the short term.