According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid remained stable on March 31st, with a market average price of 2810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price and an increase of 0.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic acetic acid market remains stable, with market prices unchanged in various regions. The production rate of acetic acid on the supply side is relatively high, and the enterprise has accumulated inventory, mainly maintaining active shipment. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and overall follow-up is needed. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the acetic acid market is running steadily.
On March 31st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region/ On March 28th/ March 31st/ rise and fall
South China region/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 0
North China region/ 2710 yuan/ton/ 2710 yuan/ton/ 0
Shandong region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 0
Jiangsu region/ 2625 yuan/ton/ 2625 yuan/ton/ 0
Zhejiang region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 0
The price of upstream raw material methanol has weakened and decreased. On March 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2590.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to yesterday’s price of 2654.17 yuan/ton. The supply side has shown sufficient supply of goods, with traders actively reducing inventory. Downstream demand is not high, and new orders in the market have decreased. Enterprises have accumulated inventory, and the methanol market is consolidating weakly.
On March 31st, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average factory price of 4800.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market remains stable, with average cost support for acetic anhydride. Downstream market entry follows suit as needed, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The supply and demand balance in the market is maintained, and the acetic anhydride market is running steadily and cautiously.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that domestic facilities are operating stably, the market operating rate is at a high level, and there is sufficient supply in the market. However, downstream demand for acetic acid is lukewarm, and there is a lack of market benefits. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate weakly, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 21 to 28, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5282 yuan/ton to 5250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.63%. The domestic market price of edible ethanol has slightly declined, and the price of raw material corn is running weakly, putting pressure on production enterprises’ costs and increasing their willingness to raise prices; Downstream customized procurement based on demand, with cargo holders accompanying the shipment, resulting in an average transaction atmosphere.

In terms of cost, the demand for corn market is currently slightly average, and the price of corn market is running weakly. The cost support for ethanol is relatively weak.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic aggregated MDI market was weak in March, with a unilateral decline. From March 1st to 28th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 18500 yuan/ton to 16633 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.09% during the month and a price increase of 0.71% year-on-year.

In the first half of the month, following the downward trend in late February, the supply of goods in the market was relatively fast, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry was not high. The willingness of suppliers to sell goods was strong, and the price of MDI continued to decline.
In mid to late month, the market price of aggregated MDI continued to fall, but there was no improvement in transactions. At the same time, the guidance prices of major factories have been lowered, further suppressing the mentality of industry players. Although some large factories have reduced their losses in the later stage, the price boost is limited. Throughout March, under the game of supply and demand, the MDI market weakened and fell to a low level.
On the supply side, Ningbo Wanhua will take turns to conduct maintenance for one month starting from March 20th. The 70000 ton/year MDI plant of Japan’s Covestro will begin maintenance in early March and is expected to be serviced around January. BASF’s 400000 tons/year MDI plant in the United States will begin maintenance in early March and is expected to be completed around January. Huntsman Netherlands’ 470000 tons/year MDI plant underwent maintenance on March 12th, lasting approximately 40 days.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene: In March, the pure benzene market experienced a wide decline due to multiple factors such as international oil prices, external markets, and demand. The average price of pure benzene on March 1st was 7518 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 6800 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of up to 9.56%. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is weak and declining. As of March 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society was 8362 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.73% in March.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. In an atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, it is difficult to increase demand.
Future forecast: The current MDI market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with intermediary prices following the market and market news being relatively calm. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5300 yuan/ton to 5282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%. The domestic edible ethanol market prices have slightly adjusted, with a narrow range of strong raw material corn prices and strong cost support, and prices have remained stable after rising. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in lukewarm transactions.

In terms of cost, the overall fluctuation of corn prices is relatively strong. Traders have started to release some of their goods, maintaining a dynamic balance between effective supply in the market and downstream demand, and prices have remained volatile and strong. Feed companies have started using wheat, but there has not been a widespread substitution effect yet. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and most traders still have a strong willingness to raise prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

Future forecast: The price of raw material corn is fluctuating and stabilizing, and cost support still exists; With the support of previous contracts, production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The mentality of the demand side is cautious, with a focus on purchasing essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for hydrogen peroxide has steadily declined since March, with prices continuously decreasing. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On March 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market, weak decline

Since March, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been sluggish, and the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers has rebounded. Supply pressure remains, and hydrogen peroxide prices continue to bottom out. The average price in the domestic market has fallen to around 700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 50 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken, with average market transactions and upward pressure, constantly declining.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry remained poor, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply was suppressing. The future market will continue to decline mainly.

This week (3.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 1.0%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, some units in the northern region have undergone maintenance, easing supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Temporary maintenance of the device to alleviate supply pressure

From the supply side, this week, the supply has been basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main northern production areas has slightly decreased. This week, the Hualu equipment malfunctioned and the supply decreased. In addition, there is not much supply pressure in Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions. Prices generally increased during the week, but stabilized over the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, with the main reason being the decline in upstream natural gas. In addition, the downstream sector has seen more declines than gains, indicating that the main reason for the rebound in liquid ammonia prices is the favorable supply side, and there is no significant support from the demand side; In addition, especially in maintaining essential industrial demand. Downstream urea prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.11% this week.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the expected increase in liquid ammonia prices this week is only a short-term behavior, and the trading atmosphere slightly cooled down over the weekend. Hualu plant is expected to resume work on Saturday and production next week, and the expected increase in supply will put pressure on ammonia prices. In addition, there are no bright spots on the demand side, and downstream factories have insufficient operating rates, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. It is difficult for liquid ammonia to maintain its upward trend in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6760 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 6880 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.78%.

The market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, and the ex factory prices increased. Confidence in the market improved, and holders of goods pushed up prices one after another. However, downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and there was insufficient follow-up on the demand side, resulting in limited trading volume. The high-end price of isopropanol has been lowered over the weekend. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6800-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has fallen. The average price of acetone at the beginning of the week was 6547.5 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6455 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.41%. At present, the performance of on-site orders is mediocre, and the weakening of costs has intensified the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acetone market will not see any improvement in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market has slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, the market average was 6813.25 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6865.75 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77%. At present, the inventory of propylene is low, and downstream purchases should be made at a lower price according to demand. It is expected that propylene will be stable, medium to strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the current drop in acetone prices is due to insufficient cost support. In addition, the downstream market has poor purchasing enthusiasm, with light trading and a focus on wait-and-see measures. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will be mainly weakly consolidated, and more attention will be paid to changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

1. Shaking downward

The mainstream transaction price has fluctuated in the range of 8000-8500 yuan/ton recently, with a decline of about 10% -15% from the high point at the beginning of the year, and the market transaction center is gradually shifting downwards.

Low end supply (especially in the East China region) has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, exacerbating market bearish sentiment. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

2. Regional differentiation

Main sales regions such as East China and South China have experienced significant price declines due to high supply pressure and weak demand; The North China region is relatively resistant to decline due to local rigid demand support.

2、 Core factors affecting prices

1. Continued weakness on the demand side

Downstream industries such as coatings and textiles: dragged down by the sluggish real estate market and reduced export orders, the operating rate only maintains 50-70%, and procurement is mainly based on small orders for essential needs.

Adhesive industry: The demand in the packaging sector is recovering seasonally, but the increment is limited, making it difficult to reverse the overall weak demand.

2. Increased supply pressure

The industry’s operating rate has rebounded to over 75% (such as the load increase of large factories such as Satellite Chemical and Yangba), coupled with some new production capacity trials (such as the addition of a 100000 ton plant in Shandong), the market spot is loose. Social inventory increased by about 15% month on month, and manufacturers’ willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory increased.

3. Limited cost support

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates with crude oil, and currently the arrival price of propylene in East China is about 6500-6800 yuan/ton, which provides weak support for the cost of acrylic acid. The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene has narrowed to 1200-1500 yuan/ton, and some companies are approaching the breakeven line, but it has not yet triggered large-scale production cuts. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

3、 Prediction of Future Price Trends

1. Short term (1-2 months): weak continuation, bottom oscillation

Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, coupled with loose supply, prices may continue to decline to the range of 7800-8200 yuan/ton. If the significant rebound in crude oil prices drives up the cost of propylene, or if downstream centralized replenishment occurs, it may temporarily halt the decline, but the rebound space is limited.

2. Mid term (3-6 months): marginal improvement, but pressure still exists

Potential benefits: The implementation of domestic stable growth policies (such as infrastructure and consumer stimulus) may drive a rebound in demand for coatings and textiles; Overseas economic recovery may boost export orders.

Risk point: Concentrated release of new production capacity (expected to exceed 500000 tons in the second half of the year), or suppression of price rebound.

4、 Operational suggestions

Traders: prioritize digesting existing inventory and avoid hoarding; Pay attention to low-priced sources and replenish small orders on dips.

Downstream enterprises: Purchase on demand, with forward orders within 3 months to reduce the risk of cost fluctuations.

Production enterprises: flexibly adjust loads based on profits, strengthen binding with downstream long-term contract customers, and reduce pressure on spot sales.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is still in a short-term downward cycle dominated by “weak demand+high supply”, and prices may further bottom out. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe the effectiveness of policy stimulus and the pace of overseas demand recovery. If the supply and demand structure improves, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound around the end of the year. Market participants are advised to maintain a low inventory strategy, with a focus on cost side fluctuations and downstream replenishment signals.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the domestic PC market continued the previous weak trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 28th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16116.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to early February.

cause analysis

On the supply side, in February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 77% at the end of January to over 82%. The weekly average production has increased at a high level, reaching over 65000 tons. The on-site supply is very abundant, and some manufacturers have set new prices at the factory. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions gradually exhausted before and after the holiday. Although the upstream acetone has increased within the month, the confidence of the industry in cost value has been strengthened. However, the demand side recovered slowly after the holiday, coupled with an increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, relaxed supply, increased resistance to price increases, and entered a consolidation market. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is generally moderate.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the market as a whole has continued to maintain a light pre holiday level in February. As of the end of February, the return of downstream factories to vacation is still slow, and the load increase of end enterprises is not significant. Due to poor on-site stocking, the purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand imbalance. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation is basically continuing the light performance after the holiday. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market fell at a low level in February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently weak and volatile, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The signs of slow recovery in downstream demand remain, with poor new orders and a deepening trend of supply-demand contradictions. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on February 26th: 15180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On February 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable. At present, the raw material side remains at a high level, and the cost support of titanium dioxide enterprises is obvious. After titanium dioxide companies sent letters to raise prices one after another, market confidence has been boosted. At present, downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Further observation is needed on the implementation of new order prices.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.