1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and stopped falling this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 805 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 815 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.24% and a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. On April 17th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 802 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 34.11% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 790-890 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 880-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The price of caustic soda has stopped falling and rebounded, with previous price increases and downstream resistance. Downstream stage replenishment leads to an increase in caustic soda prices.
Business analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been rising, and some domestic alumina companies have implemented maintenance and production plans, while downstream companies are restocking in stages. The comprehensive prediction of supply and demand game is that caustic soda will maintain an upward trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on April 14th was 1035 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.34% compared to the average price of 973 yuan/ton on April 7th.

2、 Market analysis
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen significantly this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of their own facilities has decreased. Part of the caprolactam enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream particle factories has increased, leading to an increase in market demand. Recently, the price of urea has risen, which is favorable for the domestic and international ammonium sulfate market. As of April 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1010 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1040-1080 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been trending upwards recently. At present, the spot supply of ammonium sulfate market is tight, downstream demand is following up, and manufacturers are mainly pushing prices. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will continue to experience strong upward movements.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China continued to decline this week. As of April 11th, the average market price in East China was 11766 yuan/ton, and as of April 7th, the average price was 12066 yuan/ton. It fell 2.49% within the week and 25.53% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market continued its downward trend. Affected by the news of tariff policies, the export market is hindered, and downstream market entry is cautious. Domestic demand is relatively flat, with limited demand pull. The market lacks favorable support, leading to further price declines.
Supply side: The source of goods is filled quickly and the supply is loose.
Cost wise: The price of toluene has decreased, with an average price of 6230 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5860 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.84% during the week. Affected by tariff policies, prices have fallen sharply.
According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the TDI market currently has sufficient supply. In the uncertain macro situation, it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid remained stable on March 31st, with a market average price of 2810.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price and an increase of 0.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic acetic acid market remains stable, with market prices unchanged in various regions. The production rate of acetic acid on the supply side is relatively high, and the enterprise has accumulated inventory, mainly maintaining active shipment. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and overall follow-up is needed. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the acetic acid market is running steadily.
On March 31st, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region/ On March 28th/ March 31st/ rise and fall
South China region/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 2800 yuan/ton/ 0
North China region/ 2710 yuan/ton/ 2710 yuan/ton/ 0
Shandong region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 0
Jiangsu region/ 2625 yuan/ton/ 2625 yuan/ton/ 0
Zhejiang region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 0
The price of upstream raw material methanol has weakened and decreased. On March 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2590.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to yesterday’s price of 2654.17 yuan/ton. The supply side has shown sufficient supply of goods, with traders actively reducing inventory. Downstream demand is not high, and new orders in the market have decreased. Enterprises have accumulated inventory, and the methanol market is consolidating weakly.
On March 31st, the downstream acetic anhydride market remained stable, with an average factory price of 4800.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday’s price. The upstream acetic acid market remains stable, with average cost support for acetic anhydride. Downstream market entry follows suit as needed, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. The supply and demand balance in the market is maintained, and the acetic anhydride market is running steadily and cautiously.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that domestic facilities are operating stably, the market operating rate is at a high level, and there is sufficient supply in the market. However, downstream demand for acetic acid is lukewarm, and there is a lack of market benefits. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate weakly, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 21 to 28, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5282 yuan/ton to 5250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.63%. The domestic market price of edible ethanol has slightly declined, and the price of raw material corn is running weakly, putting pressure on production enterprises’ costs and increasing their willingness to raise prices; Downstream customized procurement based on demand, with cargo holders accompanying the shipment, resulting in an average transaction atmosphere.

In terms of cost, the demand for corn market is currently slightly average, and the price of corn market is running weakly. The cost support for ethanol is relatively weak.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic aggregated MDI market was weak in March, with a unilateral decline. From March 1st to 28th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 18500 yuan/ton to 16633 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.09% during the month and a price increase of 0.71% year-on-year.

In the first half of the month, following the downward trend in late February, the supply of goods in the market was relatively fast, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry was not high. The willingness of suppliers to sell goods was strong, and the price of MDI continued to decline.
In mid to late month, the market price of aggregated MDI continued to fall, but there was no improvement in transactions. At the same time, the guidance prices of major factories have been lowered, further suppressing the mentality of industry players. Although some large factories have reduced their losses in the later stage, the price boost is limited. Throughout March, under the game of supply and demand, the MDI market weakened and fell to a low level.
On the supply side, Ningbo Wanhua will take turns to conduct maintenance for one month starting from March 20th. The 70000 ton/year MDI plant of Japan’s Covestro will begin maintenance in early March and is expected to be serviced around January. BASF’s 400000 tons/year MDI plant in the United States will begin maintenance in early March and is expected to be completed around January. Huntsman Netherlands’ 470000 tons/year MDI plant underwent maintenance on March 12th, lasting approximately 40 days.
On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene: In March, the pure benzene market experienced a wide decline due to multiple factors such as international oil prices, external markets, and demand. The average price of pure benzene on March 1st was 7518 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 6800 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of up to 9.56%. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market is weak and declining. As of March 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society was 8362 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.73% in March.
On the demand side, downstream urgent procurement, entering the market at low prices. In an atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, it is difficult to increase demand.
Future forecast: The current MDI market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with intermediary prices following the market and market news being relatively calm. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5300 yuan/ton to 5282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 14.80%. The domestic edible ethanol market prices have slightly adjusted, with a narrow range of strong raw material corn prices and strong cost support, and prices have remained stable after rising. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in lukewarm transactions.

In terms of cost, the overall fluctuation of corn prices is relatively strong. Traders have started to release some of their goods, maintaining a dynamic balance between effective supply in the market and downstream demand, and prices have remained volatile and strong. Feed companies have started using wheat, but there has not been a widespread substitution effect yet. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, and most traders still have a strong willingness to raise prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

Supply side, stable operation of supply side. The maintenance of the biological fermentation ethanol plant is concentrated in April, and the on-site supply side is stable and organized. The stable operation of cassava corn ethanol supply side. Coal to ethanol production: Anhui Carbon Xin and Hengxin facilities are temporarily shut down, while other facilities are producing steadily. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

Future forecast: The price of raw material corn is fluctuating and stabilizing, and cost support still exists; With the support of previous contracts, production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The mentality of the demand side is cautious, with a focus on purchasing essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for hydrogen peroxide has steadily declined since March, with prices continuously decreasing. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On March 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.23% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market, weak decline

Since March, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been sluggish, and the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers has rebounded. Supply pressure remains, and hydrogen peroxide prices continue to bottom out. The average price in the domestic market has fallen to around 700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 50 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken, with average market transactions and upward pressure, constantly declining.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry remained poor, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply was suppressing. The future market will continue to decline mainly.

This week (3.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 1.0%. The main reason is that in the context of stable downstream demand, some units in the northern region have undergone maintenance, easing supply pressure. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Temporary maintenance of the device to alleviate supply pressure

From the supply side, this week, the supply has been basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main northern production areas has slightly decreased. This week, the Hualu equipment malfunctioned and the supply decreased. In addition, there is not much supply pressure in Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions. Prices generally increased during the week, but stabilized over the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain is not significant

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, with the main reason being the decline in upstream natural gas. In addition, the downstream sector has seen more declines than gains, indicating that the main reason for the rebound in liquid ammonia prices is the favorable supply side, and there is no significant support from the demand side; In addition, especially in maintaining essential industrial demand. Downstream urea prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.11% this week.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the expected increase in liquid ammonia prices this week is only a short-term behavior, and the trading atmosphere slightly cooled down over the weekend. Hualu plant is expected to resume work on Saturday and production next week, and the expected increase in supply will put pressure on ammonia prices. In addition, there are no bright spots on the demand side, and downstream factories have insufficient operating rates, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. It is difficult for liquid ammonia to maintain its upward trend in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6760 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 6880 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.78%.

The market price of isopropanol has risen this week. At the beginning of the week, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, and the ex factory prices increased. Confidence in the market improved, and holders of goods pushed up prices one after another. However, downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and there was insufficient follow-up on the demand side, resulting in limited trading volume. The high-end price of isopropanol has been lowered over the weekend. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6800-6900 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market price has fallen. The average price of acetone at the beginning of the week was 6547.5 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6455 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.41%. At present, the performance of on-site orders is mediocre, and the weakening of costs has intensified the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acetone market will not see any improvement in the short term.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market has slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, the market average was 6813.25 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6865.75 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77%. At present, the inventory of propylene is low, and downstream purchases should be made at a lower price according to demand. It is expected that propylene will be stable, medium to strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the current drop in acetone prices is due to insufficient cost support. In addition, the downstream market has poor purchasing enthusiasm, with light trading and a focus on wait-and-see measures. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will be mainly weakly consolidated, and more attention will be paid to changes in the raw material market.