1、 Price trend

1. Shaking downward

The mainstream transaction price has fluctuated in the range of 8000-8500 yuan/ton recently, with a decline of about 10% -15% from the high point at the beginning of the year, and the market transaction center is gradually shifting downwards.

Low end supply (especially in the East China region) has fallen below 8000 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, exacerbating market bearish sentiment. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

2. Regional differentiation

Main sales regions such as East China and South China have experienced significant price declines due to high supply pressure and weak demand; The North China region is relatively resistant to decline due to local rigid demand support.

2、 Core factors affecting prices

1. Continued weakness on the demand side

Downstream industries such as coatings and textiles: dragged down by the sluggish real estate market and reduced export orders, the operating rate only maintains 50-70%, and procurement is mainly based on small orders for essential needs.

Adhesive industry: The demand in the packaging sector is recovering seasonally, but the increment is limited, making it difficult to reverse the overall weak demand.

2. Increased supply pressure

The industry’s operating rate has rebounded to over 75% (such as the load increase of large factories such as Satellite Chemical and Yangba), coupled with some new production capacity trials (such as the addition of a 100000 ton plant in Shandong), the market spot is loose. Social inventory increased by about 15% month on month, and manufacturers’ willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory increased.

3. Limited cost support

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates with crude oil, and currently the arrival price of propylene in East China is about 6500-6800 yuan/ton, which provides weak support for the cost of acrylic acid. The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene has narrowed to 1200-1500 yuan/ton, and some companies are approaching the breakeven line, but it has not yet triggered large-scale production cuts. As of March 3rd, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

3、 Prediction of Future Price Trends

1. Short term (1-2 months): weak continuation, bottom oscillation

Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, coupled with loose supply, prices may continue to decline to the range of 7800-8200 yuan/ton. If the significant rebound in crude oil prices drives up the cost of propylene, or if downstream centralized replenishment occurs, it may temporarily halt the decline, but the rebound space is limited.

2. Mid term (3-6 months): marginal improvement, but pressure still exists

Potential benefits: The implementation of domestic stable growth policies (such as infrastructure and consumer stimulus) may drive a rebound in demand for coatings and textiles; Overseas economic recovery may boost export orders.

Risk point: Concentrated release of new production capacity (expected to exceed 500000 tons in the second half of the year), or suppression of price rebound.

4、 Operational suggestions

Traders: prioritize digesting existing inventory and avoid hoarding; Pay attention to low-priced sources and replenish small orders on dips.

Downstream enterprises: Purchase on demand, with forward orders within 3 months to reduce the risk of cost fluctuations.

Production enterprises: flexibly adjust loads based on profits, strengthen binding with downstream long-term contract customers, and reduce pressure on spot sales.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is still in a short-term downward cycle dominated by “weak demand+high supply”, and prices may further bottom out. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to observe the effectiveness of policy stimulus and the pace of overseas demand recovery. If the supply and demand structure improves, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound around the end of the year. Market participants are advised to maintain a low inventory strategy, with a focus on cost side fluctuations and downstream replenishment signals.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the domestic PC market continued the previous weak trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 28th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16116.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.22% compared to early February.

cause analysis

On the supply side, in February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 77% at the end of January to over 82%. The weekly average production has increased at a high level, reaching over 65000 tons. The on-site supply is very abundant, and some manufacturers have set new prices at the factory. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions gradually exhausted before and after the holiday. Although the upstream acetone has increased within the month, the confidence of the industry in cost value has been strengthened. However, the demand side recovered slowly after the holiday, coupled with an increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, relaxed supply, increased resistance to price increases, and entered a consolidation market. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is generally moderate.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the market as a whole has continued to maintain a light pre holiday level in February. As of the end of February, the return of downstream factories to vacation is still slow, and the load increase of end enterprises is not significant. Due to poor on-site stocking, the purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand imbalance. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation is basically continuing the light performance after the holiday. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market fell at a low level in February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently weak and volatile, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The signs of slow recovery in downstream demand remain, with poor new orders and a deepening trend of supply-demand contradictions. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on February 26th: 15180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On February 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable. At present, the raw material side remains at a high level, and the cost support of titanium dioxide enterprises is obvious. After titanium dioxide companies sent letters to raise prices one after another, market confidence has been boosted. At present, downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. Further observation is needed on the implementation of new order prices.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on February 24th was 963 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% compared to the average price of 938 yuan/ton on February 17th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have shown a strong upward trend. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their internal equipment is at a high level. Downstream urgent procurement, stable demand for urea, and strong market transaction atmosphere. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, and distributors operate cautiously. As of February 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 950 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 965-995 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market has stabilized after rising, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is good. At present, the market demand is good, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, the market’s cautious attitude increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by strong price consolidation and operation.

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

On the raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable this week, but the cost remained under high pressure. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has risen, providing favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 430.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.69% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant quotas are abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: The recent rise in raw material prices has driven the hydrofluoric acid market to a stronger trend. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate slightly declined in mid February. As of February 17th, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 78100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 2.11% from 79780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 74800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.35% from 76600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The significant growth on the supply side has driven down prices

After the holiday, the news of the resumption of production projects by top enterprises in Yichun area has been basically implemented, and our company has also analyzed the incident:

Business Society: What is the impact of Ningde Times’ resumption of lithium mine production in Jiangxi on the price of lithium carbonate

It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate at the end of lithium mica will significantly increase after mid February.

In terms of imports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in January 2025 was 25600 tons, of which 19100 tons were exported to China, a month on month increase of 43.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.7%. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will further increase in February and March.

Weak demand with no significant growth

The production of positive electrode materials and battery terminals decreased in February. The month on month growth of positive electrode and battery production in March was within the range of 10% -20%, but due to the small production base in February, there was no substantial year-on-year increase in production in March.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are weak, with prices falling and no positive news in the market. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2653 yuan/ton and then fell to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.83% during the cycle, a month on month decline of 5.84%, and a year-on-year decline of 2.34%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. The overall inventory of methanol enterprises shows a trend of destocking, but due to the impact of transportation capacity, some regions have seen a slight increase in inventory. In addition, traditional downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, which makes them somewhat resistant to high priced inventory.

As of the close on February 14th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2539 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2561 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2523 yuan/ton. It closed at 2526 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 615633 lots, the position is 780601 lots, and the daily increase is 25560 lots.

On the cost side, the current supply of thermal coal in the market is gradually increasing, with prices steadily decreasing and port inventories accumulating at high levels. Downstream demand growth is weak. In the foreseeable future, the thermal coal market will still face significant downward pressure. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: The demand for formaldehyde has increased significantly; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: Demand for dimethyl ether is increasing. Downstream chloride: There is little change in demand; The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 13th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 361.50-362.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 113.00 to 114.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Future forecast: Traditional downstream production will continue to increase, with attention paid to fluctuations in freight rates and downstream stocking. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has been operating at a high level recently. The mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 18100-18200 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 18300 yuan/ton. Recently, domestic facilities have been running smoothly, foreign maintenance plans have been introduced one after another, and mainstream factories have announced price increases, further supporting the MDI market. As the Spring Festival approaches, on-site purchases and sales have returned to a flat state. It is expected that the short-term aggregated MDI market will continue to operate strongly, and we will closely monitor changes in future news.

The market price of epichlorohydrin first decreased and then increased in January. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, prices of propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated, supported by high prices of glycerol. Overall, there is still pressure on the cost side. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7008.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: At the beginning of this month, the equipment was restarted one after another, and with the release of some new production capacity in Shandong, the market supply increased significantly. The market price competition was fierce, and some factories mainly focused on shipping, resulting in a decline in prices; In the middle of the month, some areas experienced equipment load operation and shutdown, with an overall operating rate of about 50%, resulting in a tight supply of goods. In addition, downstream suppliers actively stocked up before the holiday, and demand improved, leading to a gradual increase in prices.

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream epoxy resin market is in a low season of demand. In addition, some units are shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in overall production capacity and output, which makes it difficult to form favorable support for epichlorohydrin. Market demand is weak, trading atmosphere is cold, prices remain relatively stable, and the main focus is on stocking up for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand will decrease, but cost support still exists. In addition, some supply side enterprises have a low operating rate of about 50% overall, and low-priced goods in the market are gradually decreasing. Traders’ quotes are firm, and it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the near future. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has been operating strongly this week, with a broad upward trend. As of January 17th, the average market price in East China was 14000 yuan/ton, and on January 13th, the average price was 13500 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 3.7% and fell by 16.67% year-on-year.

This week, there have been continuous positive news in the TDI market, with a significant boost in news coverage. There have been frequent price adjustments in factories during the week, with the latest TDI execution price of 14100 yuan/ton for a large factory in Shanghai, an increase of 800 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The prices of ASEAN Wanhua MDI and Wanhua TDI will be increased by $200/ton. The TDI distribution channel of a large northern factory has a fixed price of 14000 yuan/ton on January 20th, with discounted supply. The tight supply situation on site has not improved, and the supplier’s mentality is good, with a strong atmosphere of high prices. Downstream market entry is cautious, with insufficient stocking willingness and a lack of actual order support for high priced goods.

Supply side: The operation of Gansu Yinguang’s equipment is unstable, resulting in reduced load operation. The 150000 ton TDI plant of Hanhua in South Korea is scheduled to undergo routine shutdown and maintenance in mid February 2025, with a planned maintenance period of one month. Other devices maintain medium to high load operation.

Cost wise: Upstream toluene has recently seen a significant increase, providing stronger support for TDI.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market supply filling is slow, and some factories prioritize export orders. Considering that TDI prices have risen to a high level, it is expected that the TDI market will mainly digest the increase in the short term and closely monitor changes in market supply and demand.