This week, the epoxy propane market has been operating weakly and steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8470 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.67% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: From November to December at the end of the year, maintenance will be concentrated in the East China region. The 400000 tons/year HPPO unit in the Lianyungang region will be shut down for maintenance on November 11th, with an estimated 45 days. The 270000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Zhejiang Petrochemical may also be scheduled for maintenance in mid November, with only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Shenghong operating normally. Affected by it, prices in East China have fallen slightly.

Raw material side: The price of propylene on the raw material side fluctuated and fell. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6828.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream demand side is relatively cold, with insufficient follow-up on procurement, cold actual market transactions, and mainly focused on first-time purchases, adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that due to the impact of increased supply from various companies and weak downstream demand, it is advisable to wait and see. Insufficient follow-up on essential procurement is expected to lead to short-term fluctuations and consolidation in the epoxy propane market, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of epichlorohydrin has increased this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine at the raw material end are still supported. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6870.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the cost side price support is still acceptable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, cautious procurement of raw materials, and tight market supply. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight rise in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to 29th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8728 yuan/ton to 8642 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.98% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.24%. Although there have been device replacements, the restart of temporary faulty devices and the operation of some devices with increased load have led to an increase in industry capacity utilization and weakened supply side support. Downstream industry contracts are following up, spot trading is light, holders are cautious, and the market focus is stable with a downward trend.

On the supply side, the utilization rate of industry capacity has significantly improved, the market supply has increased, and the expected increase in market supply of goods has weakened the support on the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The power restrictions in Inner Mongolia have eased, and the market supply capacity has increased. With the rise in prices in the early stage, trade inversion has led to a trading environment list. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. As of 10:00 am on November 29th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2548 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have been consolidating at a high level, and the cost of BDO has been affected by favorable factors.

On the demand side, most downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBAT, and polyurethane have reduced production loads due to equipment load reduction or maintenance, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods in the market will increase, while the pace of downstream demand will follow suit. Spot trading volume will be light, and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market is weak and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in November. From November 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5575 yuan/ton to 5450 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.24% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.71%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market remained stable, with major factories accompanying shipments and a decent trading atmosphere. Shipments were average, and downstream shipments were mainly accompanied by fixed procurement. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a weak decline, with some previously shut down maintenance facilities resuming production and the operating load gradually increasing, resulting in an increase in spot supply; The prices of raw corn production areas are fluctuating, but the demand side support is flat, with accompanying replenishment being the main trend, and the ethanol market price is weak and stagnant. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market experienced a narrow decline due to the impact of snowfall. Logistics in some areas were hindered, shipments were not smooth, and there was a significant increase in spot supply, resulting in significant inventory pressure for enterprises.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices are running weakly, grain source toxins are unstable, downstream enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, and there are only a few transactions at ports with low transaction prices.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable, and the operating load is gradually increasing. In some areas, there may be an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

Demand side, demand side Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; There is not much change in the production of ethyl acetate. The impact of short-term ethanol demand is mostly stable.

The future forecast shows that there is significant inventory pressure on enterprises and limited support from the demand side. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that there is still room for a short-term downturn in the domestic ethanol market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1550 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the weekend was 1548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.95%. On November 21st, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, a decrease of 0.14 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and running. The ex factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1546 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell weakly, with an average price of 18400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.36% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 12.94%. During the week, the domestic aggregated MDI market operated weakly, with average downstream purchasing intentions and a focus on essential needs. At the same time, the news boost was limited, and the aggregated MDI market remained stagnant and consolidated.

On the supply side, Shanghai Huntsman’s 350000 ton/year plant will undergo maintenance for approximately one month. Shanghai Covestro operates at low negative loads and has maintenance plans in the near future. Partial maintenance of Wanhua Ningbo equipment, low negative operation.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase. As of November 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 7405 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market first fell and then rose. As of November 22nd, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9087 yuan/ton. The overall impact of aggregating MDI costs is relatively small.

On the demand side, there is insufficient follow-up on downstream demand, resulting in low transaction volume and no signs of improvement in the near future.

Future forecast: The current trend of the aggregated MDI market is weak, with a downward trend in transaction volume. At the same time, the news boost is limited, and the mentality of industry players is poor. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 22400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.11% compared to the same period last year. On November 17th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable in the market, with prices in the Shandong region remaining stable. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the domestic bromine market price is generally stable. In addition, the device is running smoothly, the supply is normal, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively peaceful. The demand for downstream flame retardants dominated by bromine remains stable, while the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are running weakly, with an average market price of 1627.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1611 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has decreased by 1.02% and increased by 66.08% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain weak. Downstream demand for bromine has decreased, and the demand for flame retardants remains stable. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market remained relatively low in October. From October 8th to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 5752 yuan/ton to 5575 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.09% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 19.00%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices fluctuated and fell, with logistics restrictions and rising shipping costs. Along with poor downstream demand, companies were slow to ship and inventory pressure increased. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. After the holiday, production companies have gradually lowered their offers, and the focus of the ethanol market has once again fallen. In mid month, the price of raw corn continued to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, companies are shipping slowly, and the ethanol market continues to see a decline in quotes. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices remained stable with small fluctuations, and the supply of raw material corn was loose, resulting in a slight decline in prices. Downstream restocking in some regions has been slightly active, with factory shipments improving and industry sentiment rebounding.

In terms of cost, corn prices have slightly weakened, and new grain in major production areas continues to increase. Some farmers in areas where new grain has not yet been listed still have reluctance to sell. The purchase prices of deep processing enterprises have fluctuated, and some enterprises continue to purchase at lower prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply of ethanol in various regions of China remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are expected to operate normally, but overall supply fluctuations are limited. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; The production capacity of ethyl acetate continues to increase. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future forecast, the price of raw material corn is weak and stable, with insufficient support. With the increase in the operating rate of ethyl acetate, the demand for ethanol may increase. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may break through in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 8820 yuan/ton on October 30th.

Analysis: According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot market for styrene today is weak, and the sales price of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company has been lowered. The overall trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with downstream factories purchasing according to demand. At present, international crude oil prices have fallen, and the price of raw material pure benzene has also dropped, affecting market confidence. However, styrene has been slightly depleted in East China ports. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

In September, the import volume of acrylonitrile in China significantly decreased, with imports of 0.32 tons. The import volume decreased by 100% month on month and 206% year-on-year. The import volume of acrylonitrile from January to September was 54800 tons, a decrease of 100600 tons or 64.98% compared to the same period last year. The main reason is that domestic demand is relatively weak, coupled with the fact that imported acrylonitrile has no price advantage in the domestic market. The main import destinations are concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin.

In September, China exported 25896 tons of acrylonitrile, with an average price of 1110 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 6.15% month on month and 89.05% year-on-year. The export volume from January to September was 175000 tons, an increase of 43300 tons or 32.87% compared to the same period last year. Due to sufficient domestic supply and a certain price advantage, the export volume has significantly increased in the past two months.

In September, China’s acrylonitrile exporting countries were still mainly concentrated in the Asian region. South Korea remains the primary region for acrylonitrile exports, exporting 11000 tons of acrylonitrile, accounting for 43%. India and Thailand ranked second and third in terms of export volume, with export volumes of 8000 tons and 4000 tons, accounting for 31% and 17% respectively. However, it is worth noting that in the past two years, India, the main export destination, has extended the deadline for mandatory BIS certification of acrylonitrile, styrene (ethylbenzene), and maleic anhydride to October 24th. Therefore, the future export of acrylonitrile to India will be significantly reduced.